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October 2023


wdrag
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44 off a low of 43. Clouds reverse from Monday splitting clouds to south and clearing to the north. Clear out - but cool. Chill down through Fri (11/3).  Moderate to normal and above 11/4 - 11/8 then back cooler 11/9 - 11/11, stormy period potential then moderate back.

 

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 82 (1946)
NYC: 81 (1946)
LGA: 82 (1946)


Lows:

 

EWR: 29 (1975)
NYC: 29 (1925)
LGA: 33 (1975)

Historical:

 

1846 - Eighty-seven pioneers were trapped by early snows in the Sierra Nevada Mountains that piled five feet deep, with 30 to 40 foot drifts. Just 47 persons survived the "Donner Pass Tragedy". (The Weather Channel)

1950 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. for Halloween. The temperature soared to 83 degrees at Minneapolis MN, their warmest reading of record for so late in the season. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - Fort Lauderdale, FL, was deluged with 13.81 inches of rain, which brought their rainfall total for the month of October to an all-time record of 42.43 inches. (30th-31st) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Halloween was a wet one in the southwestern U.S. Heavy rain in southern California resulted in numerous mudslides. Weather-related auto accidents resulted in three deaths and twenty-five injuries. Mount Wilson CA received 3.14 inches of rain in 24 hours. Yakima WA reported measurable rainfall for the first time since the 18th of July. The 103 day long dry spell was their longest of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty-two cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 19 degrees at Cleveland OH was a record for October, and morning lows of 21 degrees at Allentown PA and Bridgeport CT tied October records. Nine cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Phoenix AZ with a reading of 96 degrees. Showers made Halloween a soggy one in the southeastern U.S. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Halloween night was a soggy one in New England. Showers in the northeastern U.S. produced more than an inch and a half of rain in six hours at some locations. An invasion of cold arctic air brought an abrupt end to a week of "Indian Summer" type weather in the Great Lakes Region, and brought snow and subzero wind chill readings to the Northern Plains. In Colorado, Alamosa was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of two degrees above zero, and a Halloween night storm brought 3 to 6 inches of snow to the Front Range, and 5 to 10 inches to the nearby foothills. Icy streets around Denver the next morning made for a rather spooky commute. (The National Weather

 

1991: A severe winter storm, dubbed the Great Halloween Mega Storm, struck the upper Midwest. Minnesota bore the brunt of this storm. Blizzard conditions occurred with winds gusting frequently to 40 and 50 mph. By the time it was all over on November 2nd, Duluth recorded 37 inches, Minneapolis 28 inches, International Falls 18 inches and 11.2 inches in 24-hours at Sioux Falls, SD, their earliest heavy snowfall of 6 inches or more and snowiest October on record. For Duluth and Minneapolis, the snow amounts set new all-time records for the greatest amount of snow in a single storm. The storm gave these two cities nearly half of their average seasonal snowfall.

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A warm October is concluding with chilly readings. In New York City,Ocrober had a mean temperature of 60.5°. That was 2.6° warmer than normal.

Overnight, an offshore storm will bring some showers and periods of light rain to the region.

November will begin on a cold note. Areas outside of New York City and Philadelphia will see widespread freezes tomorrow night. The chill will moderate by the weekend, but temperatures could average below normal through the first 10-14 days of November.

October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was +7.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.531 today.

On October 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.083 (RMM). The October 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.326 (RMM).

 

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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Added ACIS Oct summary of above/below temp (degrees F) and departure from normal precip (inches). 

Screen Shot 2023-11-01 at 7.38.42 PM.png

Screen Shot 2023-11-01 at 7.40.17 PM.png

You be the judge,  In our NYC subforum, temps worked out, but precip not.  Nationally,  your call... Looks to me like a mixed bag of results. 

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