lee59 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Took longer than normal for the first freeze in Caribou but it looks like the end of October will end with about 4 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 Light rain and drizzle will continue into the night. Across northern and western Maine, an appreciable snowfall is likely. Parts of that region could see 3"-6" of snow with locally higher amounts. Tomorrow will become milder with temperatures reaching the lower 60s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region and approaching or reaching 70° or above from southern New Jersey southward. However, much colder air will pour into the region tomorrow night. Afterward, the coldest air of the season will cover the region to end October and begin November. The chill will moderate by next weekend. October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway. The SOI was -3.29 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.943 today. On October 26 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.239 (RMM). The October 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.256 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.4° (2.5° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 29, 2023 Share Posted October 29, 2023 0.30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 10/29 BLM: 71 ACY: 69 PHL: 67 New Brnswk: 65 EWR: 63 LGA: 63 JFK: 62 NYC: 62 TTN: 61 ISP: 60 TEB: 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 On 10/27/2023 at 1:39 PM, weatherpruf said: Anything you could keep? We won't go out at our age and crank til we die just to release everything. FTW, first they are too small to keep and now they are too big. We are close to just having it shut down again like the 80s. i do have a bonus tag. Did you make it out this weekend? I went again yesterday an slaughtered them on live bunker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Picked up 0.56" of rain for the day. Current temp 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Ready for snow. Boat is coming out of the water this week. The hot weather is over. Let it snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 The last 2 days of October are averaging 53degs.(48/58) or Normal. Month to date is 61.1[+2.8]. October should end at 60.6[+2.7]. Reached 61 here yesterday(daytime-11am)---was higher at midnight. Today: 60-63, wind nw., cloudy, Rain early, 46 tomorrow AM. 56*(98%RH) here at 7am. 58* at 9am. 61* at Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 At .48 here, some downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Similar pattern to recent years with a number of stations finishing above 60° in October and 70° in September. Monthly Data for October 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NY WEST POINT COOP 64.9 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 63.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 62.7 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 62.5 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 61.8 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 61.1 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 60.9 NJ HARRISON COOP 60.5 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 60.3 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 60.3 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 60.3 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 60.2 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 60.2 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 60.2 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 60.2 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 60.1 Monthly Data for September 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 71.7 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71.2 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.0 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70.2 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 70.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 0.29" Sunday 0.36" Today @ 740am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Over a inch here total now…over performed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Drizzle here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 ~.9 yesterday and so far .3 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Misty and foggy muck. Visible satellite has clouds strapped in from CNJ north - but wouldn't rule out some northward advance and breaks of sun later. Warmer 60s perhaps a 70 CNJ. Cool down / chill down 11/1-11/3 first frosts and freezes inland Tue night / Wed Am, Wednight / Thu am, before moderating back to and above normal. Looks like the weekend streak could break this coming weekend 11/4-5. Coold back down by the 8th and into the following next weekend 11/8 - 11/11 - stormy longer range guidance that period to break the relatively dry stretch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Records: Highs EWR: 82 (1946) NYC: 82 (1961) LGA: 81 (1946) Lows: EWR: 31 (1932) NYC: 31 (1925) LGA: 35 (2011) Historical: 1925 - Nashville, TN, was blanketed with an inch of snow, their earliest measurable snow of record. (The Weather Channel) 1947 - The Donora, PA, smog disaster finally came to an end. For five days an inversion trapped impurities in the lower atmosphere over the Monongahela Valley killing 20 persons, and leaving more than 2000 others sick. (26th-30th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 74 mph near the town of Gould. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the central U.S. Temperatures warmed into the 80s form Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Ten cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date. The morning low of 20 degrees at South Bend IND was a record for October, and lows of 18 degrees at Grand Rapids MI and 20 degrees at Fort Wayne IND equalled records for October. The low of 2 degrees at International Falls MN smashed their previous record for the date by 11 degrees. Syracuse NY received 2.9 inches of snow to establish a record for October with 5.7 inches for the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Temperatures soared into the 70s in the northeastern U.S. The record high of 73 degrees at Alpena MI marked their sixth straight day of record warmth. In the western U.S., Klamath Falls OR reported a record low of 19 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: The Perfect Storm, also known as the No-Name Storm reached maximum strength on this day with a low pressure of 972 mb and sustained winds of 69 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 On 10/26/2023 at 2:23 PM, forkyfork said: 5 degrees too cool today so far 14 degrees too warm at ewr yesterday 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 14 degrees too warm at ewr yesterday because the front came south. that doesn't change the fact that euro 2m temps have a cold bias 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 14 degrees too warm at ewr yesterday Friday 60 vs 43 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Received .58" rainfall last two days. Kind of needed it to moisten the soil, been on the dry side last two weeks. Enjoying the cooler weather after the warm days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 0.88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Not seeing a warm sector today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Not seeing a warm sector today Certainly not from NYC north. We have been stuck at 50 here since yesterday AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 51 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Not seeing a warm sector today Suffolk County is already in the low 60s. Once the winds switch offshore, they will probably go mid to possibly upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 59F yesterday, low of 49 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Misty and foggy muck. Visible satellite has clouds strapped in from CNJ north - but wouldn't rule out some northward advance and breaks of sun later. Warmer 60s perhaps a 70 CNJ. Cool down / chill down 11/1-11/3 first frosts and freezes inland Tue night / Wed Am, Wednight / Thu am, before moderating back to and above normal. Looks like the weekend streak could break this coming weekend 11/4-5. Coold back down by the 8th and into the following next weekend 11/8 - 11/11 - stormy longer range guidance that period to break the relatively dry stretch. Dry stretch? My backyard stopped squishing when you walk on it on Thursday for the first time in 2 months. I don't think of that as dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Just now, gravitylover said: Dry stretch? My backyard stopped squishing when you walk on it on Thursday for the first time in 2 months. I don't think of that as dry. Tomorrow through the 8th look dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 Just now, gravitylover said: Dry stretch? My backyard stopped squishing when you walk on it on Thursday for the first time in 2 months. I don't think of that as dry. Same here-rain every weekend has made things saturated and with vegetation going dormant it's soggier now than say a month ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 30, 2023 Author Share Posted October 30, 2023 Here are some recent numbers for the Sunday-early Monday event. Essentially this shows the EC-EPS and GEPS-GGEM-RGEM were far too far north in their predictions for qpf 06z Sunday-12z Monday, with the GFS/GEFS much-much more accurate here in the northeast USA. Note the NYC reservoir data is from before yesterdays event. So... we're 16% above normal. The GFS on large scale systems should not be trashed. Buying into the EC well in advance can be fraught with as much error as the GFS. In this case and probably the upcoming event early Wednesday... the GFS should prevail on best axis of qpf. Also...so far this season, in my mind, the GEPS-GGEM-RGEM (Canadian) has slipped to #3 behind the GFS, EC. I don't look at any other model too closely beyond 60 hours...don't have time and its a bit of a distraction for me when I';m trying to gauge reliability. 1003A/30 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 30, 2023 Share Posted October 30, 2023 1.05” total in Syosset & .86 in Muttontown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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