October 2023

[Roger Smith]

Records during this stretch which includes all of the latest 80F days at NYC except one (80F Nov 15, 1993). Each day's record high (for max and min) are followed by a log of all previous records and top ranks of all past and subsequent warmest days. Oct 26 to Nov 2 is part of a longer interval Oct 25 to Nov 2 (nine days) in which no record high at NYC was set within the last 50 years. This is not the longest such interval, may 31 to June 9 had no record later than 1939, and Oct 9 to 18 had no record later than 1956 (both ten day intervals).

Aug 20 to Sep 3 (15 days) had one record tied in 1973 and another solo from 1972. The only other long interval with no post-1975 records was Jan 22 to 28 (latest records from 1967). Otherwise during the year, no seven day periods elapse without a record occurring since 1974 (for NYC). 

So far today, 77/58 at NYC, as noted tied third highest for date with 1989, and not a record high min. 

You can find source of all this data in my thread about Toronto and NYC climate records in climate change forum. 

There is a list of daily records on page 2 followed by logs of annual record highs set at the time (starting with records that existed by 1900). The log tracks all changes to records until an eventual record is set and then tracks ranks of subsequent high values. Another section tracks record lows. 

(note, I have added 2023 data, t3 26th, t7 27th, 2nd warmest 1984 and 2nd warmest min on 28th)

 

Date ___high max ___high min (1869-2023)

 

Oct 26 ___ 78 1963,64 _ 66 1908 ______

_____ _ 78 ___ Oct 26 ___ eventual record tied 1963,64 .. (1989, 2023 3rd (77F), 1947 4th (76F), 1971,73 t5 (75F), 1924 7th (73F))

 

Oct 27 ___ 82 1963 ____ 66 1908 _______ 

_____ _82 ___ Oct 27 ___ eventual record 1963 .. (1947 2nd (78F), 1989 3rd (76F), 1899.1991,2010 t-4th (75F), 1920,29,64, 2023 t-7th (74F))

 

Oct 28 ___ 83 1919 ____ 64 1971 _______ (63 2023)

_____ _83 ____ Oct 28 ___ eventual record 1919 .. (2nd warmest 2023 80F, 3rd 1984 (79F), 4th 1946 (78F), 5th 1947,71,89 (77F)). 1919 replaced 1913 (72F)

 

Oct 29 ___ 78 1971 ____ 63 1946 _______ 

_____ _78 ___ Oct 29 ___ eventual record 1971 .. (1946 2nd (77F), 1989 3rd (76F), 1984 4th (74F), 2015 5th (73F), 1947,61,2014 t6 (72F)). 

 

Oct 30 ___ 82 1946,61 _ 64 1918, 46 ___ 

_____ _82 ___ Oct 30 ___ eventual record tied 1946, 1961 .. (1950 3rd (79F), 2016 4th (76F), 1918,94 t5th (75F), 1971 7th (74F)).

 

Oct 31 ___ 81 1946 ____ 62 1881, 1961 _ 

_____ _81 ___ Oct 31 ___ eventual record 1946 .. (1933,45,50,61 t2nd (76F), 1919 6th (74F), 1942,94 t7th (73F)).

 

Nov 01 ___ 84 1950 ____ 65 1956 ______

_____ _84 ___ Nov 1 ___ eventual record 1950 ..  (1974 2nd (81F), 1982, 2003 t-3rd (77F), 1927,29,52 t-5th (73F)). [Nov monthly max for 84F 1950]

 

Nov 02 ___ 83 1950 ____ 67 1971 ______ [Nov monthly max (min) for 67F 1971]

_____ _83 ___ Nov 2 ___ eventual record 1950 ..  (1982 2nd (79F), 1968 3rd (77F), 1929 4th (76F), t5th 1971,2001 (75F)).

________________

As noted, 80F on Nov 15, 1993 only other 80 deg reading later in year; at this point, eight such values exist including one non-record 81F in 1974 on Nov 1st. 

[bluewave]

Overperforming warm ups have become the new normal.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

Colors along 195 in Jersey astounding this evening… 72 down here

[SnoSki14]

Looks like we get backdoored on Sunday. Pretty sharp contrast Sat vs Sun on GFS. 25+ degree difference in highs

[qg_omega]

What time rain on Sunday?  Record warmth tomorrow and Saturday

[SI Mailman]

Might have to put the AC unit back in my window at this rate.  

[gravitylover]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

Might have to put the AC unit back in my window at this rate.  

Ha, this morning I said to my wife don't turn the AC on without taking the cover off first. 

[Allsnow]

52 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like we get backdoored on Sunday. Pretty sharp contrast Sat vs Sun on GFS. 25+ degree difference in highs

Nam is keeps it in the 50’s all day 

[Allsnow]

 

[donsutherland1]

Bright sunshine sent temperatures soaring to near record and record highs across the region. High temperatures included:

Albany: 77°
Atlantic City: 80° (tied record set in 1963)
Baltimore: 83° (old record: 81°, 1978)
Boston: 80°
Bridgeport: 74° (tied record set in 1963)
Hartford: 80°
Islip: 76° (old record: 75°, 1971)
New Haven: 74° (old record: 70°, 1948, 1963, and 2010)
New York City-Central Park: 77°
New York City-JFK Airport: 74°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 80° (old record: 76°, 1947 and 1963)
Newark: 82° (old record: 79°, 1963 and 1964)
Philadelphia: 80° (old record: 78°, 1920)
Poughkeepsie: 81° (tied record set in 1963)
Providence: 77°
Washington, DC: 78°

Tomorrow and Saturday will see a continuation of very warm weather. Readings will peak in the upper 70s and even lower 80s across parts of the region into southern New England.

A weak cold front will bring showers and somewhat cooler weather on Sunday. Monday will remain fairly mild, but much colder air will overspread the region late Monday or Monday night. Afterward, the coldest air of the season will cover the region to end October and begin November.

October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was -3.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.191 today.

On October 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.009 (RMM). The October 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.879 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3° (2.4° above normal).

 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

What time rain on Sunday?  Record warmth tomorrow and Saturday

Gfs has it raining by late morning. Nam is fairly dry

[SnoSki14]

59 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nam is keeps it in the 50’s all day 

That wouldn't surprise me. Low to mid 80s the day before too so perhaps a 30+ degree swing for some.

[winterwarlock]

13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Get out and enjoy the peak foliage this weekend 

Seems like the best colors in years. All that moisture the last 3 months far different  than than dry crunchy leaves  of recent times 

 

I expect it to peak imby prolly around the Nov 4th weekend

[SACRUS]

10/26

 

EWR: 82
New Brsnwk: 81
BLM: 80
TEB: 80
ACY: 80
LGA: 80
PHL: 80
TTN: 78
NYC:77
ISP: 76
JFK: 74

[JustinRP37]

Wow 57 was my low here in Patterson, NY. It is roasting outside for the time of year. House only cooled off to 71 from an indoor high of 74. At this rate I might need the AC this evening!  

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of October are averaging  60degs.(54/66) or +6.

Month to date is  60.6[+1.8].      October should end at 60.5[+2.5].

Reached 72 here yesterday from 5pm-8pm.

Today:  72-78, wind w., clouds variable, 65 tomorrow AM.

61*(76%RH) here at 7am.    62* at 9am.    67* at Noon.      69* at 1pm.   Reached 73* at 5pm.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Wow 57 was my low here in Patterson, NY. It is roasting outside for the time of year. House only cooled off to 71 from an indoor high of 74. At this rate I might need the AC this evening!  

windows open here next 2 days-might be last time until next spring

[JustinRP37]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

windows open here next 2 days-might be last time until next spring

I would, but now with the leaves thinning out we can hear the Metro North train horns about half a mile away. Usually sleep right through it but sometimes it does wake me up since it is infrequent up this way. 

[Brian5671]

26 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I would, but now with the leaves thinning out we can hear the Metro North train horns about half a mile away. Usually sleep right through it but sometimes it does wake me up since it is infrequent up this way. 

I'm 5 miles from their tracks here but when it's raining and the wind comes out of the S and E I can hear them.....

[donsutherland1]

Some sunrise photos. Lots of clouds but warm.

[bluewave]

Not much difference between the low of 59 at Albany and 63 at LGA.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not much difference between the low of 59 at Albany and 63 at LGA.

High launching pad for today but there are some areas of clouds around

[ForestHillWx]

Lots of clouds around this morning. Comfortable, but it might cap temps. 

[lee59]

Low of 52 here, now 62

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Lots of clouds around this morning. Comfortable, but it might cap temps. 

yeah may not see much sun til noon looking at satellite loop

[SACRUS]

 

67 cloudy. Some spotty showers.  Should get party cloudy / more sun by the afternoon.  Back to more sun Sat (10/28) and upper 70s / low 80s.   Showers/ clouds Sun(10/29) and Mon (10/30) as trough digs into the GL/MW and forces the front east.  Chill down 11/1 - 11/3 first frosts/freezes.  Moderate back to / above normal 11/4 - 11/7 before next cooldown 11/8.  Overall back and forth near normal once to the 5.

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Eps has some snow for inland areas next week

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 81 (1963)
NYC: 82 (1963)
LGA:  79 (1963)

Lows:

EWR: 27 (1936)
NYC: 28 (1936)
LGA: 33 (1976)

Historical:

 

1764 - A "very remarkable storm of snow with high winds" produced 22 inches at Rutland in central Massachusetts. (David Ludlum)

1929 - A snowstorm dumped 27 inches upon Ishpeming, MI, in 24 hours to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

1962 - An early season winter storm over New England blanketed northern Maine with 7 to 16 inches of snow, and southeastern New England with up to 3 inches of snow. Worcester MA received a record 4.7 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain from Virginia to New York State. Fallen leaves made roads and sidewalks slick, and also clogged sewers. Rainfall totals of 1.55 inches at Newark NJ, 1.54 inches at Harrisburg PA, 1.27 inches at Scranton PA, and 1.22 inches at Atlantic City NJ, were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought snow and gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, and snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 47 mph at Lansing MI, and reached 55 mph at Pierre SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Wintry weather invaded the northwestern U.S. A storm crossing the Central Rockies produced up to 23 inches of snow in the mountains east of Salt Lake City UT. "Indian Summer" continued in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Afternoon highs of 71 degrees at Marquette MI and 72 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida.

 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some sunrise photos. Lots of clouds but warm.

Baba Bouy?

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 67 here despite the clouds