October 2023

[SACRUS]

 

10/24

 

EWE: 70
PHL: 69
ACY: 68
BLM: 68
New Brnswck: 68
TEB: 67
LGA:  66
NYC: 65
TTN:  65
ISP: 63
JFK: 63

[Rtd208]

Crazy.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Crazy.

 

Some of the best RI ever seen. And on our end, Tammy also, went ballistic…. We are entering a new era. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Tonight in RDU (where I landed) already 52F. There is an area that radiates much better than NYC metro and in the shoulder seasons, it isnt unusual for it to be colder just before sunrise on clear nights than NYC

Yeah, the first freeze at RDU comes earlier than LGA. The first freeze date at TLH and LGA are actually similar. 15-16 was the latest first freeze at LGA coming on January 4th. So it’s probably safe to say LGA is the UHI capitol of the Eastern US. 
 

Frost/Freeze Summary for RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NC
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-23 (2017)		10-19 (2015)		199
Mean	04-06		11-07		215
2022	03-29 (2022)	30	11-14 (2022)	31	229
2021	04-23 (2021)	31	11-14 (2021)	29	204
2020	04-11 (2020)	32	11-18 (2020)	31	220
2019	04-03 (2019)	31	11-09 (2019)	27	219
2018	04-08 (2018)	32	11-11 (2018)	28	216
2017	03-23 (2017)	31	11-11 (2017)	28	232
2016	04-10 (2016)	29	11-12 (2016)	30	215
2015	03-29 (2015)	22	10-19 (2015)	32	203
2014	04-17 (2014)	31	11-03 (2014)	29	199
2013	03-29 (2013)	28	10-26 (2013)	29	210

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-01 (2020)		11-08 (2019)		215
Mean	03-27		11-27		245
2022	03-30 (2022)	30	11-19 (2022)	32	233
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260
2020	03-01 (2020)	26	12-08 (2020)	32	281
2019	03-13 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	31	239
2018	04-02 (2018)	32	11-15 (2018)	30	226
2017	03-23 (2017)	26	11-10 (2017)	27	231
2016	04-06 (2016)	32	12-09 (2016)	32	246
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280
2014	04-16 (2014)	32	11-18 (2014)	24	215
2013	03-22 (2013)	30	11-12 (2013)	32	234

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for Tallahassee Area, FL (ThreadEx)
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	02-20 (2015)		10-20 (2022)		220
Mean	03-08		11-24		261
2022	03-13 (2022)	32	10-20 (2022)	31	220
2021	03-09 (2021)	32	11-23 (2021)	32	258
2020	02-28 (2020)	29	12-01 (2020)	30	276
2019	03-07 (2019)	31	12-03 (2019)	29	270
2018	03-15 (2018)	27	11-28 (2018)	29	257
2017	03-16 (2017)	27	12-09 (2017)	29	267
2016	02-28 (2016)	32	11-21 (2016)	30	266
2015	02-20 (2015)	22	12-20 (2015)	31	302
2014	02-28 (2014)	27	11-03 (2014)	30	247
2013	03-28 (2013)	32	11-28 (2013)	30	244

[lee59]

47 here this morning. 55 LaGuardia.

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of October are averaging  62degs.(55/70) or +8.

Month to date is  60.2[+1.0].      October should end at  60.6[+2.6].

Reached 65 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:  69-74, wind sw., p. sunny, 58 tomorrow AM.

54*(81%RH) here at 7am.      61* at Noon.     65* at 1pm.     70* at 3pm.      71* at 3:30pm.    Reached 72* at 5pm.

[Allsnow]

47 this morning. First leaf clean up will be this weekend. The foliage actually looks very nice this year 

[SACRUS]

 

from 43 to 50 quickly but more clouds around today, regardless warmth is here through Sunday (10/29) 70s today.  Upper 70s/low 80s Thu (10/26) and Sat (10/28).  Front approaching 10/30- 10/31 as trough digs into the GL/MW and NE, and timing will be tough but Halloween could be raw and quickly chilling down,  11/1 - 11/4  much cooler then brief warmup 11/5 before back and forth .

 

 

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the first freeze at RDU comes earlier than LGA. The first freeze date at TLH and LGA are actually similar. 15-16 was the latest first freeze at LGA coming on January 4th. So it’s probably safe to say LGA is the UHI capitol of the Eastern US. 
 

Frost/Freeze Summary for RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NC
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-23 (2017)		10-19 (2015)		199
Mean	04-06		11-07		215
2022	03-29 (2022)	30	11-14 (2022)	31	229
2021	04-23 (2021)	31	11-14 (2021)	29	204
2020	04-11 (2020)	32	11-18 (2020)	31	220
2019	04-03 (2019)	31	11-09 (2019)	27	219
2018	04-08 (2018)	32	11-11 (2018)	28	216
2017	03-23 (2017)	31	11-11 (2017)	28	232
2016	04-10 (2016)	29	11-12 (2016)	30	215
2015	03-29 (2015)	22	10-19 (2015)	32	203
2014	04-17 (2014)	31	11-03 (2014)	29	199
2013	03-29 (2013)	28	10-26 (2013)	29	210

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	03-01 (2020)		11-08 (2019)		215
Mean	03-27		11-27		245
2022	03-30 (2022)	30	11-19 (2022)	32	233
2021	04-02 (2021)	29	12-19 (2021)	31	260
2020	03-01 (2020)	26	12-08 (2020)	32	281
2019	03-13 (2019)	32	11-08 (2019)	31	239
2018	04-02 (2018)	32	11-15 (2018)	30	226
2017	03-23 (2017)	26	11-10 (2017)	27	231
2016	04-06 (2016)	32	12-09 (2016)	32	246
2015	03-29 (2015)	27	01-04 (2016)	15	280
2014	04-16 (2014)	32	11-18 (2014)	24	215
2013	03-22 (2013)	30	11-12 (2013)	32	234

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for Tallahassee Area, FL (ThreadEx)
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
Minimum	02-20 (2015)		10-20 (2022)		220
Mean	03-08		11-24		261
2022	03-13 (2022)	32	10-20 (2022)	31	220
2021	03-09 (2021)	32	11-23 (2021)	32	258
2020	02-28 (2020)	29	12-01 (2020)	30	276
2019	03-07 (2019)	31	12-03 (2019)	29	270
2018	03-15 (2018)	27	11-28 (2018)	29	257
2017	03-16 (2017)	27	12-09 (2017)	29	267
2016	02-28 (2016)	32	11-21 (2016)	30	266
2015	02-20 (2015)	22	12-20 (2015)	31	302
2014	02-28 (2014)	27	11-03 (2014)	30	247
2013	03-28 (2013)	32	11-28 (2013)	30	244

I think the difference between Newark and LaGuardia is Newark at least cools off a little better at night.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 79 (2001)
NYC: 79 (1963)
LGA: 78 (2001)

Lows:

EWR: 33 (1939)
NYC:  29 (1879)
LGA: 37 (1962)

Historical:

 

1918: The Canadian steamship Princess Sophia carrying miners from the Yukon and Alaska becomes stranded on Vanderbilt Reef. A strong northerly gale hampers rescue attempts the day before. The ship sinks on this day, killing the 268 passengers and 75 crewmen on board.

1921 - A hurricane with 100 mph winds hit Tampa, FL, causing several million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

 

1975: GOES-1, which was launched on October 16th, produced its first image of the earth on this day.

1977 - Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

 

1977: Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state.

1981 - A northbound tornado caused two million dollars damage to Bountstown, FL, in less than five minutes. Fortunately no deaths occurred along its six mile path, which was 30 to 100 yards in width. Radar at Apalachicola had no indication of a tornado or severe weather. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm system moving across the Saint Lawrence Valley produced 40 to 50 mph winds east of Lake Ontario. High winds downed some trees around Watertown NY, and produced waves seven feet high between Henderson Harbor and Alexandria Bay. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA tied for honors as cold spot in the nation with record lows for the date of 19 degrees. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma and northern Texas produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 65 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms erupted over northeastern Texas during the late evening producing softball size hail at Newcastle and Jonesboro. Low pressure over James Bay in Canada continued to produced showers and gale force winds in the Great Lakes Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure over Nevada produced high winds in the southwestern U.S., and spread heavy snow into Utah. Winds gusted to 63 mph at the Mojave Airport in southern California. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 12 inches at Snowbird, with 11 inches at Alta. "Indian Summer" type weather continued in the central and eastern U.S. Twenty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 77 degrees at Alpena MI and 81 degrees at Saint Cloud MN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2003: A fire began in the Cuyamaca Mountains spread quickly due to Santa Ana Winds. As of 2017, this fire, called Cedar Fire, remains the largest recorded wildfire in California history, burning 273,246 acres.

 

 

 

[Dark Star]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Luckily, it’s just the AMOC and not the Gulf Stream that is slowing down. While we would still see steady warming here, there would be no big cooldown outside the small area south of Greenland. 

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/gulf-stream-collapse-amoc/

There is evidence that [the AMOC] has slowed down, and even collapsed, in the past… If the AMOC collapses — but there is no direct evidence of this — it would be a serious issue for the region [of the Greenland and Norwegian Seas]. It would probably introduce some cooling to a region that otherwise would be warming now… But the larger Gulf Stream circulation would continue operating, largely as before.”

My memory is waning, but I thought the slowing down of the AMOC was the reason why our region was experiencing a 4-5 degree increase in temperatures vs. the 1.2 degree increase globally over the past 100 years or so?

[wdrag]

Not sure if anyone is noticing but modeling is now showing sprinkles into the NYC subforum by daybreak Saturday and quite a difference in axis of qpf Sunday. with the EPS-GEPS well north of the GEFS. The GEFS sort of nails the northern half of the NYC subforum (I80ish north).

 

Shall be interesting.  Already had scattered showers this morning just north of I90.

 

[wdrag]

Just now, wdrag said:

Not sure if anyone is noticing but modeling is now showing sprinkles into the NYC subforum by daybreak Saturday and quite a difference in axis of qpf Sunday. with the EPS-GEPS well north of the GEFS. The GEFS sort of nails the northern half of the NYC subforum (I80ish north).

 

Shall be interesting.  Already had scattered showers this morning just north of I90.

 

Also, what's the criteria for verifying rain this weekend?  CP .01 anytime?  Appreciate someone laying out the criteria for me.  Thanks, Walt

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I think the difference between Newark and LaGuardia is Newark at least cools off a little better at night.

Yeah, Newark radiates better being in a marshy area. Plus NW and W flow is colder than LGA since the LGA gets a warming breeze off the water with a W or NW flow in the winter. So Newark has significantly more lows of freezing or colder than LGA since the super El Niño.

 

Monthly Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0	5	14	23	18	12	2	74
2021-2022	0	2	6	28	23	12	0	71
2020-2021	1	2	19	25	21	12	2	82
2019-2020	0	11	19	18	13	3	1	65
2018-2019	0	9	17	25	21	16	1	89
2017-2018	0	8	21	24	13	18	4	88
2016-2017	0	1	18	13	18	16	0	66
2015-2016	1	4	0	27	17	6	5	60

 

Monthly Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0	2	9	18	14	8	1	52
2021-2022	0	0	4	26	19	11	0	60
2020-2021	0	0	12	13	17	10	1	53
2019-2020	0	8	13	12	11	1	0	45
2018-2019	0	5	11	23	18	9	0	66
2017-2018	0	2	14	22	10	7	1	56
2016-2017	0	0	8	10	9	14	0	41
2015-2016	0	0	0	20	14	4	3	41

[winterwx21]

16 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Going fishing Saturday morning so i hope It hits 95 

This is a spectacular week for outdoor activities. Lots of bow hunting and hiking for me. Looking forward to the upper 70s. 

And you're right that the foliage looks very nice. There were concerns that it might not be as great this year due to the constantly saturated soil, but that doesn't appear to be happening. Looks great out there. 

[psv88]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Newark radiates better being in a marshy area. Plus NW and W flow is colder than LGA since the LGA gets a warming breeze off the water with a W or NW flow in the winter. So Newark has significantly more lows of freezing or colder than LGA since the super El Niño.

 

Monthly Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0	5	14	23	18	12	2	74
2021-2022	0	2	6	28	23	12	0	71
2020-2021	1	2	19	25	21	12	2	82
2019-2020	0	11	19	18	13	3	1	65
2018-2019	0	9	17	25	21	16	1	89
2017-2018	0	8	21	24	13	18	4	88
2016-2017	0	1	18	13	18	16	0	66
2015-2016	1	4	0	27	17	6	5	60

 

Monthly Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0	2	9	18	14	8	1	52
2021-2022	0	0	4	26	19	11	0	60
2020-2021	0	0	12	13	17	10	1	53
2019-2020	0	8	13	12	11	1	0	45
2018-2019	0	5	11	23	18	9	0	66
2017-2018	0	2	14	22	10	7	1	56
2016-2017	0	0	8	10	9	14	0	41
2015-2016	0	0	0	20	14	4	3	41

LGA sticks out into the warm sound…of course it will be a warmer than most spots. For LGA it’s UHI plus being in the sound

[Volcanic Winter]

38 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This is a spectacular week for outdoor activities. Lots of bow hunting and hiking for me. Looking forward to the upper 70s. 

And you're right that the foliage looks very nice. There were concerns that it might not be as great this year due to the constantly saturated soil, but that doesn't appear to be happening. Looks great out there. 

Funny how different people can be. I don’t hike until it’s in the 50’s on sunny days, I absolutely despise the feeling of heat / broiling in the sun while active. My favorite time of year to hike is mid-late fall into winter, but I’m definitely more of an oddball than not   

As of Sunday my wife and I will be back in Iceland for another hiking trip, so at least I’ll be in my glory haha. Beautiful out there. 

[Stormlover74]

55 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This is a spectacular week for outdoor activities. Lots of bow hunting and hiking for me. Looking forward to the upper 70s. 

And you're right that the foliage looks very nice. There were concerns that it might not be as great this year due to the constantly saturated soil, but that doesn't appear to be happening. Looks great out there. 

The foliage in the NC mountains was crazy this weekend. Everyone in the state was on the blue ridge parkway from asheville to blowing rock. Never seen anything like it. Unfortunately we hit a buck on one of those backroads. Did quite a bit of damage to the passenger door and mirror but were able to drive it home

[winterwx21]

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The foliage in the NC mountains was crazy this weekend. Everyone in the state was on the blue ridge parkway from asheville to blowing rock. Never seen anything like it. Unfortunately we hit a buck on one of those backroads. Did quite a bit of damage to the passenger door and mirror but were able to drive it home

Sorry the car got damaged, but I'm glad you had a great time looking at the spectacular foliage. 

[weatherpruf]

19 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Thank you for the update. Did you see any bunker or stripers being caught? With the southwest wind you think it will be rough Saturday with the outgoing tide? 

I didn't see any bunkers in the Sound but the fish are feeding on peanut bunker; the big blues are eating the porgies, that's why they are there and not in Raritan. I don't know what the wind will be but a southwest with an outgoing would be less rough, and you'd have wind with the tide. There are plenty of reports of stripers off the coast and heading north; Sandy Hook is holding some fish. Trying to get out but the porgy fishing is so good don't wanna leave it for stripers, when you have to release most of them.....this has been some great fall weather for boating and fishing after a terrible Sept. Maybe we'll get a little of November in as well. Got out yesterday and had so many fish I was giving them away to others by 1 pm. Once again, 45 mins from NJ to City Island in them morning, 3 hours to get home, even though we got in early. But what a gorgeous afternoon! Even the Bronx was looking wonderful with the foliage, and the best is yet to come.

[forkyfork]

On 10/24/2023 at 4:06 PM, Allsnow said:

 

6 degrees too cool today

[winterwarlock]

Hit 75 overperforming

 

Expecting 79-80 tomorrow 

 

84 Saturday

[Allsnow]

Eps snow mean for the first time this winter haha 

[Allsnow]

25 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Hit 75 overperforming

 

Expecting 79-80 tomorrow 

 

84 Saturday

Enjoy your beach day 

[nycwinter]

i am looking forward to wearing my coat the middle of next week...

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Crazy.

 

Out of all the rapid intensifications we have seen near the time landfall in recent years this was the most extreme.

 

 

[psv88]

71 today

[lee59]

71 here also

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

I didn't see any bunkers in the Sound but the fish are feeding on peanut bunker; the big blues are eating the porgies, that's why they are there and not in Raritan. I don't know what the wind will be but a southwest with an outgoing would be less rough, and you'd have wind with the tide. There are plenty of reports of stripers off the coast and heading north; Sandy Hook is holding some fish. Trying to get out but the porgy fishing is so good don't wanna leave it for stripers, when you have to release most of them.....this has been some great fall weather for boating and fishing after a terrible Sept. Maybe we'll get a little of November in as well. Got out yesterday and had so many fish I was giving them away to others by 1 pm. Once again, 45 mins from NJ to City Island in them morning, 3 hours to get home, even though we got in early. But what a gorgeous afternoon! Even the Bronx was looking wonderful with the foliage, and the best is yet to come.

My friend got out today and killed it by the tip of the hook and the back bay on flutter spoons. Didn’t see much bunker but the birds were working on smaller fish. 
 

@Franklin0529 exactly what you posted 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will remain at above and much above normal levels into the weekend. During the peak of the warmth, the temperature will likely reach into the 70s into southern and central New England. Parts of the Middle Atlantic Region Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia,and Washington, DC could reach 80°. Much colder air will return to close out October. November will commence with the coldest weather so far this season.

October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was not available today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.300 today.

On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.879 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.563 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.2° (2.3° above normal).