October 2023

[Allsnow]

First frost chance in the suburbs Monday night. After that we get 70’s for days then a change at or just after Halloween 

[bluewave]

We get the highs approaching 80° while Montana goes below 0°. Same old pattern of recent years with the cold dumping into the West. Plenty of time for the cold to moderate coming east. But we’ll still probably get 30s around NYC which will feel much colder following 80°.

[the_other_guy]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We get the highs approaching 80° while Montana goes below 0°. Same old pattern of recent years with the cold dumping into the West. Plenty of time for the cold to moderate coming east. But we’ll still probably get 30s around NYC which will feel much colder following 80°.

So BN, 3-4 days AN and then BN

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

So BN, 3-4 days AN and then BN

The warm departures on the warmer days will be more impressive than the cold departures on the colder days. That’s how the Northeast is on track for several stations having a top 10 warmest October. While the colder days have felt more fall-like, there has been no top 10 or record cold for this time of year.

 

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warm departures on the warmer days will be more impressive than the cold departures on the colder days. That’s how the Northeast is on track for several stations having a top 10 warmest October. While the colder days have felt more fall-like, there has been no top 10 or record cold for this time of year.

 

Warmest Departures to the extreme NE has been a common theme

[SACRUS]

53 / 43.   Variable cloudy and a coolest day of the next 9. Warming by Tue (10/24) - Sun (10/28) as ridge pumps into the east.  70s by Thu - Sat and with enough sun, some of the warmer spots near or to 80.  Beyond there strong front by the 30th/Halloween, followed by quick but strong chill down (coolest of the season since April.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:


EWR: 86 (1979)
NYC: 88 (1979)
LGA: 83 (1979)

Lows:

EWR:30 (1940)
NYC: 30 (1940)
LGA:33 (1940)

Historical:

 

1884: A drought which began in August, extended through September and continued until the last week October brought hardship to Northern, Central, and Eastern Alabama. The 22nd was the first day of general showers, and gentle rains fell from the 26th to the 29th.

1965 - The temperature soared to 104 degrees at San Diego, CA. Southern California was in the midst of a late October heat wave that year. Los Angeles had ten consecutive days with afternoon highs reaching 100 degrees. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1985 - A guest on the top floor of a hotel in Seattle, WA, was seriously injured while talking on the phone when lightning struck. Several persons are killed each year when the electrical charge from a lightning bolt travels via telephone wiring. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Yakutat, AK, surpassed their previous all-time yearly precipitation total of 190 inches. Monthly records were set in June with 17 inches, in September with 70 inches, and in October with more than 40 inches. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) Twenty-two cities in the eastern U.S., most of them in the southeast states, reported record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 30 degrees at Athens GA, 28 degrees at Birmingham AL, and 23 degrees at Pinson AL, were the coldest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) Showers produced heavy rain in southern California, with amounts ranging up to five inches at Blue Jay. Flash flooding resulted in two deaths, ten injuries, and more than a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A "nor'easter" swept across the coast of New England. Winds gusted to 75 mph, and large waves and high tides caused extensive shoreline flooding. A heavy wet snow blanketed much of eastern New York State, with a foot of snow reported in Lewis County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A storm system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska brought rain to the Northern and Central Pacific Coast Region, with snow in some of the mountains of Oregon, and wind gusts to 60 mph along the Oregon coast. Six cities in Florida reported record low temp-eratures for the date, including Tallahassee with a reading of 34 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1997: Game 4 of the World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Florida Marlins was the coldest game in World Series history. The official game-time temperature was 38 degrees at Jacobs Field in Cleveland. Wind chills as low as 18 degrees was reported during the game.

 

1998: Tropical Depression Thirteen formed on October 22 over the southwestern the Caribbean Sea. By the 24th, this tropical depression became Hurricane Mitch. This hurricane would rapidly intensify over the next two days, reaching Category 5 strength on the 26th. Hurricane Mitch would end up being the second deadliest hurricane in the history of the Atlantic Ocean.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We get the highs approaching 80° while Montana goes below 0°. Same old pattern of recent years with the cold dumping into the West. Plenty of time for the cold to moderate coming east. But we’ll still probably get 30s around NYC which will feel much colder following 80°.

Great Halloween for the kids

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Warmest Departures to the extreme NE has been a common theme

Yeah, the magnitude of the warmth increases the further north you get.

 

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Great Halloween for the kids

That's actually the night before

here's 8pm Halloween night

[qg_omega]

52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's actually the night before

here's 8pm Halloween night

Terrible lol

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Great Halloween for the kids

Depends on your location.  12z GFS for 10/31 - 11/01

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Winds are absolutely cranking on the island right now, gotta be close to 40mph gusts. 

[SACRUS]

 

Just touched 60 today with more sun now.

 

 

[snywx]

In and out of the clouds & stuck in the mid 40s all day. Currently 46°

[donsutherland1]

Some fall scenes at the New York Botanical Garden, including a 2,469-lb (1,120 kg) pumpkin grown by Steve Sperry in Rhode Island.

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow through Tuesday will be chilly late autumnlike days. Some frost will be possible in areas outside New York City and Newark.

However, by the middle of the week, temperatures will surge to above and much above normal levels. During the peak of the warmth, the temperature will likely reach 70° or above as far north as southern New England. Parts of the Middle Atlantic Region including Philadelphia could see the temperature top out in the middle and upper 70s. Baltimore and Washington, DC could reach 80°. Much cooler air could return to close out October.

The new guidance is notably warmer than recent guidance. Both the operational GFS and ECMWF are much warmer than their ensembles and the National Blend of Models. As a result, there is now a distinct possibility of a 60° October mean temperature in New York City.

All said, October is on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around October 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was -22.18 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.060 today.

On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.278 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.252 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.7° (1.8° above normal).

 

[qg_omega]

Record warmth upcoming:

Expecting near
record warmth mid to late week, as H5 heights reach 588 dm on Thu
with H5-10 thicknesses at least 567 dm Thu-Sat. For temps took a 12Z
GFS MOS/00Z ECMWF MOS blend for the most part which for the most
part was even warmer than the NBM 75th percentile...with some
modest downslope component to the flow (WSW) can`t see why some
spots west of NYC wouldn`t push 80 for highs on at least Thu.

[qg_omega]

Hello last winter:

[winterwarlock]

i said October would be warm...what a week ahead....gimme that 80 I need on Saturday and I will hit the beaches

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Hello last winter:

Yawn its October 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Hello last winter:

Wolfie in the New England forum says it's just a warm-up.

When record all time highs get broken that's just a warm-up I guess. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wolfie in the New England forum says it's just a warm-up.

When record all time highs get broken that's just a warm-up I guess. 

Its not permanent 

[LoboLeader1]

High of 54 here today, currently 46F outdoors.

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wolfie in the New England forum says it's just a warm-up.

When record all time highs get broken that's just a warm-up I guess. 

It's ovah!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wolfie in the New England forum says it's just a warm-up.

When record all time highs get broken that's just a warm-up I guess. 

He’s a major climate change denier. Let’s go 90s! 

[the_other_guy]

14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

He’s a major climate change denier. Let’s go 90s! 

well, you guys are a little crazy on this forum with this 4 days of 70s. Never mind that it’s freezing out right now.

I think this forum becomes an echo chamber sometimes were narratives get amplified to extremes

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

He’s a major climate change denier. Let’s go 90s! 

You can't deny reality. I think 80s are a lock later this week.

[Cobalt]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

well, you guys are a little crazy on this forum with this 4 days of 70s. Never mind that it’s freezing out right now.

I think this forum becomes an echo chamber sometimes were narratives get amplified to extremes

Looks like for some areas in Vermont, they are not freezing, at a point in the season where it is becoming exceedingly uncommon for such an event to not have occurred at least once already.

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The first sub-32F SFC prog at the MVL ASOS from the latest GFS run is October 31st.

That is absolutely insane.

I don’t think people understand how rare that is based on standard deviations from the period or record.

If we even entertain November 1 as a first freeze at a NNE radiational site, wow.  Been a mild fall. This isn’t a troll post, just recognizing what is actually happening.

 

[bluewave]

It’s all about proportionality. Sure it feels chilly out there this morning. But the cold is nowhere near a record. Highs in the low 80s later this week is near the record. We would need lows in the 20s to set a record. That’s what people are saying. Several of our recent winters since 15-16 were near the warmest on record. But even a winter averaging around or over 40° or warmer feels chilly outside and you will still need a jacket on most days. 
 

Newark Area, NJ
Version: 18.2 (created 2023-09-05)
Period of record: 1893 through 2022DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)

10/25	31 in 1907	31 in 1903	33 in 1939+
10/26	31 in 1952	31 in 1936	31 in 1933+
10/27	27 in 1936	29 in 1976	29 in 1907
10/28	25 in 1936	27 in 1904	29 in 1976
10/29	29 in 1904	30 in 1965	30 in 1940
10/30	31 in 1952	31 in 1910	31 in 1902
10/31	27 in 1904	29 in 1975	30 in 1910+

 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1893-01-01 through 2023-10-22DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)

 

 

10/25	79 in 2001	79 in 1963	78 in 2021
10/26	79 in 1964	79 in 1963	78 in 1989+
10/27	81 in 1963	80 in 1947	78 in 1989
10/28	82 in 1984	81 in 1919	78 in 1989+
10/29	78 in 1971	78 in 1946	76 in 1989
10/30	82 in 1946	80 in 1961	80 in 1950
10/31	82 in 1946	79 in 1950	77 in 1945