October 2023

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Perfect balance of blocking near Greenland and Alaska with a great SW ridge near California. It was the only time a station on Long Island had a 90” season. It might have been a 100 to 200 year event if we had snowfall data going back that far on Long Island. It was as close to a perfect winter and snowfall season that our area has had in modern times. A great KU,  high number of days with snow cover, and wall to wall cold from November into April but not overpowering. On a scale of 100 for ranking a winter, it would probably be the only year in my lifetime that I would grade a 95 or higher A+. I would probably rank the 10-11 and 77-78 seasons a close 2nd around 90. 
 

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/monthlysnowfall.htm

some parts of Long Island probably had 100" in 95-96

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I do remember the 1 month breakdown after the Blizzard of 1/6/96...next storm was snow to rain after about 4-6 inches fell, then it was 4 cutters to Buffalo and temps in the 50's...snowpack was completely wiped out...pattern reloaded early Feb into early April and the rest is history..

that February snowstorm and cold outbreak in 1996 was extremely underrated.

It was an all time historic cold outbreak accompanied by a 1 foot snowstorm.

Thats the best snowstorm of the year in most winters-- well it gets forgotten in 1995-96 lol

 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that February snowstorm and cold outbreak in 1996 was extremely underrated.

It was an all time historic cold outbreak accompanied by a 1 foot snowstorm.

Thats the best snowstorm of the year in most winters-- well it gets forgotten in 1995-96 lol

 

And the pre Christmas noreaster and the November snow and the March storm. You could take out the blizzard and it still would have been a good winter

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And the pre Christmas noreaster and the November snow and the March storm. You could take out the blizzard and it still would have been a good winter

Yesss those were all amazing.  I have pictures from the December 1995 storm, it came at the start of the cold pattern.  It was a 2 day snow event and on the second day a plane slid off the runway at JFK.  That storm showed that winter meant business and snow from that event stuck around until Jan 1996 hit!

I remember the November storm really well too, it was a surprise rain changing to snow event and we got 3-5 inches in that one.

The March storms were amazing too-- in March 1996 we had 3 storms of more than 4 inches of snow!  That was a long long winter with a 3 week thaw in between.  The April storm was really good on Long Island even in Queens, you just had to be east of the urban areas for that one.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yesss those were all amazing.  I have pictures from the December 1995 storm, it came at the start of the cold pattern.  It was a 2 day snow event and on the second day a plane slid off the runway at JFK.  That storm showed that winter meant business and snow from that event stuck around until Jan 1996 hit!

I remember the November storm really well too, it was a surprise rain changing to snow event and we got 3-5 inches in that one.

The March storms were amazing too-- in March 1996 we had 3 storms of more than 4 inches of snow!  That was a long long winter with a 3 week thaw in between.  The April storm was really good on Long Island even in Queens, you just had to be east of the urban areas for that one.

There was a snow to ice event a few days before the blizzard as well which added to to the snowpack and the infamous warmup and melting of 2 feet of snow overnight 

[Brian5671]

The blizzard was forecast to be a miss here until the 12z runs came out the day before...little did we know the Euro had the correct solution for days but it was not widely used at the time

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

The blizzard was forecast to be a miss here until the 12z runs came out the day before...little did we know the Euro had the correct solution for days but it was not widely used at the time

Yeah I remember on the weather channel late Friday night they said it looked like around 4" in NYC. Then Saturday morning it was 10-12 and just kept getting bumped up from there

[thunderbolt]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Perfect balance of blocking near Greenland and Alaska with a great SW ridge near California. It was the only time a station on Long Island had a 90” season. It might have been a 100 to 200 year event if we had snowfall data going back that far on Long Island. It was as close to a perfect winter and snowfall season that our area has had in modern times. A great KU,  high number of days with snow cover, and wall to wall cold from November into April but not overpowering. On a scale of 100 for ranking a winter, it would probably be the only year in my lifetime that I would grade a 95 or higher A+. I would probably rank the 10-11 and 77-78 seasons a close 2nd around 90. 
 

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/monthlysnowfall.htm

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be fair and noticeably warmer. Much of the region will see the mercury rise into the middle and perhaps upper 60s. The warmest sections could reach 70°. Friday will see clouds increase and showers arrive.

A strong cold front will likely bring periods of rain late Friday and during the weekend. Saturday could feature the most rain. Afterward, the weekend into early next week will likely see its coolest weather so far this fall. Frost will be possible in areas outside New York City and Newark.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around October 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -13.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.208 today.

On October 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.486 (RMM). The October 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.351 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

There was a snow to ice event a few days before the blizzard as well which added to to the snowpack and the infamous warmup and melting of 2 feet of snow overnight 

There was this big roof collapse of a supermarket in Massapequa during that big thaw, I remember that too.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I remember on the weather channel late Friday night they said it looked like around 4" in NYC. Then Saturday morning it was 10-12 and just kept getting bumped up from there

Funny thing about these storms-- you usually either get 1-2 inches or you get 18"+ lol.  It's extremely rare for a 4" or even a 10" total to verify.  All or nothing

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Perfect balance of blocking near Greenland and Alaska with a great SW ridge near California. It was the only time a station on Long Island had a 90” season. It might have been a 100 to 200 year event if we had snowfall data going back that far on Long Island. It was as close to a perfect winter and snowfall season that our area has had in modern times. A great KU,  high number of days with snow cover, and wall to wall cold from November into April but not overpowering. On a scale of 100 for ranking a winter, it would probably be the only year in my lifetime that I would grade a 95 or higher A+. I would probably rank the 10-11 and 77-78 seasons a close 2nd around 90. 
 

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/monthlysnowfall.htm

Interesting-- where would you rank 2002-03?

Another highly underrated long winter with a big centerpiece storm.

I put 2002-03 ahead of 1977-78 and only barely behind 2010-11 or close to it.  PD2 was on par or even better than the Boxing Day 2010 Blizzard and the season lasted until April! 2010-11 had longer duration snowcover though

[Tatamy]

The photo below was posted on FB earlier.  It was taken on Great South Bay to the north of Fire Island Pines after 5:00 PM.  This is looking towards Davis Park.

[binbisso]

Both the operational GFS & CMC have lost the -PNA In the 7 plus day range.

Older run

 

New run

[LoboLeader1]

45F here this AM, high of 63 yesterday.

[LoboLeader1]

I remember this from 27 years ago today.

https://www.nytimes.com/1996/10/20/nyregion/northeaster-hits-region-with-record-rains-and-high-winds.html

[wdrag]

Yet another weekend (your count consecutive) with rain (possibly chilly?), sometime Oct 28th-29th.  Seems to be shaping up with a frontal boundary south of us and a wave of low pressure associated with ensemble modeled strong ridge of middle of next week being depressed by short waves crossing northern USA next weekend. Ensemble 24 hr qpf has it... weak signal right now since I think modeled confusion for what northern USA short wave might dominate in the 9-11 day period.  For now, I think this is a reasonable chance... but not a guarantee.

Minor wet snow accumulation risk near I90 high terrain 22nd-23rd seems to have waned but might be a better chance extreme north-northwest edge (Pocs, Catksills, Litchfield Hills) high terrain of our NYC subforum the weekend of the 28th-29th? (very few NYC subforum members).  19/636A based on 00z-06z/19 global ensembles and ops of the EC/GFS/GGEM. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   58degs.(52/64) or +3.

Month to date is   61.4[+1.2].      Should be   60.3[+1.7] by the 27th.

Reached 64 here yesterday at Noon.

Today:   62-66, wind s., increasing clouds, 58 tomorrow AM.

53*(84%RH) here at 7am.    59* at Noon.     64* at 3pm.

[Rjay]

7 hours ago, binbisso said:

Both the operational GFS & CMC have lost the -PNA In the 7 plus day range.

 

 

 

 

Here's the ensembles for same time frame 

 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting-- where would you rank 2002-03?

Another highly underrated long winter with a big centerpiece storm.

I put 2002-03 ahead of 1977-78 and only barely behind 2010-11 or close to it.  PD2 was on par or even better than the Boxing Day 2010 Blizzard and the season lasted until April! 2010-11 had longer duration snowcover though

02-03 was a great winter with the best Christmas Day snowstorm on record for parts of Long Island. Plus one of our greatest KU’s of all time in February. Then the bonus late season snows. So I would also rank it high.
 

Data for December 25 - ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2002-12-25	41	30	1.29	8.0	M
1966-12-25	32	22	0.13	2.3	7
1969-12-25	31	13	0.10	1.0	0
2017-12-25	40	28	0.24	T	0
2003-12-25	47	33	T	T	0
1992-12-25	40	13	T	T	0
1985-12-25	41	19	T	T	0
1976-12-25	40	14	T	T	0
1975-12-25	40	8	0.14	T	2

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Yeah as a kid growing up in CNJ during the 90’s and 2000’s, it felt like we lived somewhere that gets plenty of snow. A lot, even. My dad had a plow, we looked forward to the snowy season every year, and I don’t ever really remember thinking, “damn, it hasn’t snowed in so long.”

Of course that’s growing up in one of the areas biggest periods, but yeah. This is mainly why my impression of 2016 to present feels a bit out of sync with my memories growing up, not that we haven’t had a few great storms in that period. Just that it feels like our winters lost something I remember as a kid. 
 

All anecdotal, just recollections. 

[steve392]

2002/03 winter was an incredible one.  December 8th/bday storm, christmas, presidents weekend blizzard and a few others.  Had mountains of snow on corners in bergen county, nj that winter.  2010/11 was a good one too with the boxing day blizzard, then blizzard or never called one in january that was just as bad in terms of amount of snow and a few others to finish off winter.  I can't remember what winter it was after that or it may have been that winter where the landscaping company that plowed our apartment lot needed front end loaders to move the piles as high as they could go because they ran out of room to put all the snow since it wasn't melting between storms.

 

 

43 degrees on another crystal clear morning. Beautiful sunrise.

[steve392]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah as a kid growing up in CNJ during the 90’s and 2000’s, it felt like we lived somewhere that gets plenty of snow. A lot, even. My dad had a plow, we looked forward to the snowy season every year, and I don’t ever really remember thinking, “damn, it hasn’t snowed in so long.”

Of course that’s growing up in one of the areas biggest periods, but yeah. This is mainly why my impression of 2016 to present feels a bit out of sync with my memories growing up, not that we haven’t had a few great storms in that period. Just that it feels like our winters lost something I remember as a kid. 
 

All anecdotal, just recollections. 

Winters have definitely sucked the last 15 years or so.  Grew up in the late 80's and early 90's and every winter to me was frigid and snowy. Made a killing snow shoveling the houses by me every year.

[binbisso]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Here's the ensembles for same time frame 

 

Yes just saw this.  The PNA is trending less negative however. we'll see what happens.

[Stormlover74]

I have a 730 flight tomorrow morning..of course the models are differing as to the start time of the rain. 5amish on the euro. 8 or 9 on the nam

[SACRUS]

 

50 from a low of 41.   Sunny near or low 70s in the warm spots.  Clouds back with rain and showers Fri (10/20) and Sat (10/21).  Brief chill down Sun (10/22)/ Mon (10/23) before a 5 day warm up Tue (10/24) -  Sun (10/29).  We;ll see if the front is delayed next weekend and offers the first dry Sat and most of Sunday. 

Some mid 70s in the warm spots perhaps a bit warmer Wed - Fri (10/21).

Looks like the seasons first frosts and freezes in inland areas potential on 10/31- 11/4.

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 87 (2016)
NYC: 85 (2016)
LGA: 86 (2016)

Lows:

EWR: 30 (1976)
NYC: 30 (1940)
LGA: 32 (1940)

 

Historical:

 

1844 - The famous "Lower Great Lakes Storm" occurred. Southwesterly winds were at hurricane force for five hours, driving lake waters into downtown Buffalo NY. The storm drowned 200 persons. (David Ludlum)

1961 - Rain changed to a record early season, heavy wet snow over the southern mountains of West Virginia. Leaves were still on trees, resulting in the worst forest disaster since the fires of 1952 and 953. One to two feet of snow fell near Summersville and Richwood. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel)

1984 - Thunderstorms deluged the town of Odem, TX (located 15 miles northwest of Corpus Christi) with 25 inches of rain in just three and a half hours. Most businesses in Odem were flooded, as were 1000 homes in nearby Sinton. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front brought rainshowers to parts of the central U.S., and ushered cool Canadian air into the Great Plains Region. Daytime highs were only in the 30s in North Dakota and eastern Montana. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds in eastern Colorado, with gusts to 63 mph reported at La Junta. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Record breaking snows fell across northern and central Indiana. Totals ranged up to 10.5 inches at Kokomo, and 9.3 inches was reported at Indianapolis. The 8.8 inch total at South Bend was a record for the month as a whole. Up to seven inches of snow fell in extreme southern Lower Michigan, and up to six inches fell in southwestern Ohio. The heavy wet snow downed many trees and power lines. Half the city of Cincinnati OH was without electricity during the morning hours. Temperatures dipped below freezing across much of the Great Plains Region. Twenty cities, including fourteen in Texas, reported record low temperatures for the date. North Platte NE reported a record low of 11 degrees. In Florida, four cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 92 degrees at Miami also marked a record fourteen days of 90 degree weather in October, and 116 such days for the.

 

1996: The opening game of World Series between the Braves and Yankees in New York was postponed by heavy rains and high wind from a major storm system affecting the East Coast, marking the third time in history that the World Series opener had been postponed. Overall, nine of the 22 games that have been canceled in Series history were scheduled in New York or Brooklyn.

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah as a kid growing up in CNJ during the 90’s and 2000’s, it felt like we lived somewhere that gets plenty of snow. A lot, even. My dad had a plow, we looked forward to the snowy season every year, and I don’t ever really remember thinking, “damn, it hasn’t snowed in so long.”

Of course that’s growing up in one of the areas biggest periods, but yeah. This is mainly why my impression of 2016 to present feels a bit out of sync with my memories growing up, not that we haven’t had a few great storms in that period. Just that it feels like our winters lost something I remember as a kid. 
 

All anecdotal, just recollections. 

The one thing that has changed since the 70s to 90s is that we have more 50+ and 60+ days close to our snowstorms. So the snow has started to melt pretty quickly after the snowstorms. I don’t mind this since it’s more like what our spring snowstorms from the past used to be like. One of my all-time favorites snowstorms was April 1982. I didn’t mind that it was in the 60s in the days before and after the snow. So I will gladly trade extended snow cover for great KU events. 

[nycwinter]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one thing that has changed since the 70s to 90s is that we have more 50+ and 60+ days close to our snowstorms. So the snow has started to melt pretty quickly after the snowstorms. I don’t mind this since it’s more like what our spring snowstorms from the past used to be like. One of my all-time favorites snowstorms was April 1982. I didn’t mind that it was in the 60s in the days before and after the snow. So I will gladly trade extended snow cover for great KU events. 

we live in a sensitive age where a 6 inch snowstorm that starts at 6:00am people will complain why are the schools not closed..

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

we live in a sensitive age where a 6 inch snowstorm that starts at 6:00am people will complain why are the schools not closed..

schools close here for wet roads and slush on the grass....silly