Allsnow Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 13 hours ago, bluewave said: Same old model bias from recent years with the day 11-15 forecasts missing the ridge axis near the Aleutians and trough in the West. New run Old run More cold for Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 hour ago, lee59 said: 45 this morning. Looks like rain Saturday, wind Sunday. Early next week probably coldest temperature of the season for some and mild at the end of the week. About that rain...gfs looks totally different btw with the heaviest west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: More cold for Montana New run looks like the winter pattern with the trough out west, same old pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Already feeling those hints of frustration creeping in. It’s not a rational thing, it’s October, more PTSD. Not expecting a blockbuster winter but would like to see something approaching average for many of us. But if I have to look at maps of troughs dumping to Baja all winter again I’m going to run and jump into the nearest lava lake. I’m sure we’ll see periods with mixed Niño forcing, but still. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Already feeling those hints of frustration creeping in. It’s not a rational thing, it’s October, more PTSD. Not expecting a blockbuster winter but would like to see something approaching average for many of us. But if I have to look at maps of troughs dumping to Baja all winter again I’m going to run and jump into the nearest lava lake. I’m sure we’ll see periods with mixed Niño forcing, but still. I think the El Niño will be strong enough to reshuffle the pattern. Anything is better than what we have been seeing along the coast. Ninos come with an amped up southern stream, so we just need to time some cold and we can score. But I agree a wall to wall cold, blockbuster winter is almost impossible during a strong nino. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 9 hours ago, TriPol said: Don't we want a high pressure over the aleutians this time of year? it's too far west...you want it east so the ridge is over the west US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: New run looks like the winter pattern with the trough out west, same old pattern Will care in 2 months. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 56/48 off alow of 42. Dry and ramp up warmer each day Tue (10/17) -Thu (10/19). Rain Fri (10/20) in this weekend Sat (10/21). Dry out Sun (10/22). After quick cool down Ridge into the east by Tue /Wed (10/25) through next week above to much above normalto close the month. Longer range showing strong cool down into early Nov (first frosts/freezes) perhaps -Nov 2 - No 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 26 minutes ago, FPizz said: Will care in 2 months. Yep I think it's tough to tell what the winter is going to do this early.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: New run looks like the winter pattern with the trough out west, same old pattern How do you know that’s going to be the default winter pattern? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I think the El Niño will be strong enough to reshuffle the pattern. Anything is better than what we have been seeing along the coast. Ninos come with an amped up southern stream, so we just need to time some cold and we can score. But I agree a wall to wall cold, blockbuster winter is almost impossible during a strong nino. I’ll be more than happy with just one Nino winter storm bomb like Feb 1983, Jan 2016 or PDII in 2003. 2/5/10 would’ve been one for us too if the confluence was just a hair weaker. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 45 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: How do you know that’s going to be the default winter pattern? Persistence? Not exactly the most accurate of forecasting methods, but hard to argue based on trending, recent (and stubborn) history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 UGLY run from the CFS2...take it for what it's worth 1 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 90 (1938) - Latest 90 degrees reading NYC: 90 (1938) - latest 90 LGA: 83 (2016) wonder what the reading in 1938 was? Lows: EWR: 29 (1937) NYC: 33 (1886) LGA: 38 (1970) Historical: 1781 - General Cornwallis attempted to escape encirclement by crossing York River, "but a violent storm arose" dispersing his boats causing him to ask for an armistice. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1910 - A hurricane made a loop off the southwest coast of Florida. Winds above 100 mph were reported at Fort Myers FL, and the barometric pressure at Sand Key reached 28.40 inches. (David Ludlum) 1950 - Small but powerful Hurricane King struck Miami, FL. The hurricane packs winded to 122 mph, with gusts to 150 mph. Hurricane King then moved up the Florida peninsula to Georgia. Four persons were killed and damage was 28 million dollars. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1971 - Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray CO. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine persons were injured in the tornado, all at a trailer court at the edge of town. (The Weather Channel) 1984 - A snowstorm struck northern Utah producing a record 18 inches in 24 hours at Salt Lake City, and 40 inches at the nearby Alta Ski Resort. The town of Magna, located ten miles west of Salt Lake City, did not receive any snow at all. The storm was responsible for a fifty vehicle pile-up along Interstate 15 near Farmington UT. (Storm Data) 1971: Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray, Colorado. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine people were injured in the storm, all at a trailer court at the edge of town. 1987 - It was a great day for an Oktoberfest, or to enjoy the colors of autumn, as much of the nation enjoyed sunny and mild weather. Columbia SC dipped to 34 degrees, marking their third morning in a row of record cold. Bakersfield CA reached 80 degrees for the 143rd day in a row to break a record established in 1940. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Lower Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes in Indiana, including one which injured four persons. Strong thunderstorm winds at Connerville IND caused three million dollars damage. Thunderstorms in Illinois produced hail two inches in diameter Colfax. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms representing the remnants of Hurricane Jerry deluged southeast Kentucky with four to six inches of rain in 18 to 24 hours, resulting in widespread flash flooding. Flooding resulted in more than five million dollars damage. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the southeastern U.S. Lakeland FL and Orlando FL reported record highs of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: About that rain...gfs looks totally different btw with the heaviest west And 12z CMC gives us some showers on Friday but very little Saturday. We seem to be trending away from it being a significant event, although GFS is still bullish and obviously there's plenty of time for this to trend back to being a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: UGLY run from the CFS2...take it for what it's worth And then there's this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: UGLY run from the CFS2...take it for what it's worth This looks a touch better... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: UGLY run from the CFS2...take it for what it's worth That has us .5-1 AN. Which is pretty tame for us. Ugly is Iowa. Or am I missing something? Nino with warmest departures over Upper Midwest is what is expected. This jives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: That has us .5-1 AN. Which is pretty tame for us. Ugly is Iowa. Or am I missing something? Nino with warmest departures over Upper Midwest is what is expected. This jives. +0.5-1 against the highest normals ever. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: This looks a touch better... March will rock 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: +0.5-1 against the highest normals ever. All the storms in 2010 would have been white rain in todays climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Just now, Rjay said: +0.5-1 against the highest normals ever. Well thats where we reside. I mean the whole country is warm and Ninos arent particularly cold around here. Usually mild and wet with a good storm or two. For the life of me I dont know why so many on this forum have been rooting for one…not that rooting for weather matters much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: All the storms in 2010 would have been white rain in todays climate It's tough to say but we still get big snowstorms here with the right setup and airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: Well thats where we reside. I mean the whole country is warm and Ninos arent particularly cold around here. Usually mild and wet with a good storm or two. For the life of me I dont know why so many on this forum have been rooting for one…not that rooting for weather matters much. A lot of our largest snow storms have been during el ninos. I used to have a nice chart downloaded on my phone that listed our historic storms in each category (nino vs nina vs neutral). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: All the storms in 2010 would have been white rain in todays climate The Feb 5 storm probably wouldn't have been had it been able to make it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's tough to say but we still get big snowstorms here with the right setup and airmass. If AC can get 40" in 2022 we can too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: All the storms in 2010 would have been white rain in todays climate If you were straddling the r/s/mix line, then maybe. Otherwise they’d be even more juiced The Feb 1987 storm would be all rain today, though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 2009-10 would have still been a blockbuster winter lmao that early Feb stretch would have been up here instead of in DC one bad winter last year and everyone is losing their damn minds. it's a shame 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 51 minutes ago, Rjay said: This looks a touch better... Luckily we can't even forecast 14 days out... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 49 minutes ago, Rjay said: +0.5-1 against the highest normals ever. and there's literally no cold ANYWHERE verbatim of course... Looks like an 01-02 or 11-12 pattern there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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