October 2023

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, going to end up on the lower Side of my .75-1.00 prediction. Currently at .50 but if this was snow I would have been disappointed 

Looks light and spotty from here on out, .65"

[steve392]

Nice amount of moderate to heavier rain approaching my house in se bergen county.  Been non stop rain since 8am in mahwah.

[Dark Star]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro 

 

Do I see a 540 line on the map?

[donsutherland1]

Much of the region excepting northern areas remains on track to receive 0.50"-1.50" of rain. The steady rain will continue into the night before tapering off to showers.

Tomorrow will likely see some additional showers before clouds break. A gusty chilly wind will prevail throughout the day as another round of unseasonably cool air overspreads the region. The unseasonably cool conditions will likely persist through at least the middle of the week. Afterward, readings could reach near normal to somewhat above normal levels.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around September 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -4.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.653 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7° (0.8° above normal).

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks light and spotty from here on out, .65"

Models got the northern edge heavy band right. I have about 0.5”, as usual Suffolk County shaft area. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks light and spotty from here on out, .65"

Yup. Happy this isn’t snow. I know the nam showed a screw zone a few runs ago around our area 

[Cfa]

0.25”, waste of a Saturday.

[jm1220]

57 minutes ago, Cfa said:

0.25”, waste of a Saturday.

Been a mist storm for the last 2 hours. 

[SACRUS]

0.60 here and still drizzle.    49 now and 54 is all we could muster for a high.

[gravitylover]

.8

[Allsnow]

.6 

 

Radar filling in to my southwest so perhaps I will get to my forecasted amount 

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

.6 

 

Radar filling in to my southwest so perhaps I will get to my forecasted amount 

Radar looks better than the models are showing. Hrrr does have another .1 to .2 though 

[weathermedic]

.80 at my station so far

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.67" of rain for the day.

Current temp 49

[SRRTA22]

This is the fall I remember

[LoboLeader1]

Crisp fall air (39F) here in the Berks this AM.  48F back home.

[the_other_guy]

48F stiff breeze

[steve392]

Nice partially clear morning driving into work. 48 degrees and drying out.  

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   57degs.(52/63) or Normal.

Month to date is   62.9[+1.9].     Should be  60.7[+1.2] by the 23rd.

Reached 58 yesterday at midnight(53 day)

Today:  58-62, wind n., p. cloudy, 50 tomorrow AM.

52*(79%RH) here at 7am{{was 51 earlier}.     56* at Noon.      59* at 2pm.      60* at 4pm.    61 * at 5pm.

[Allsnow]

9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Radar looks better than the models are showing. Hrrr does have another .1 to .2 though 

Yup. Ended the event with .70 

[bluewave]

The Northeast is on track for another warmer October. Some parts of Maine are close to +10. Next few weeks look like more of the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

52 and partly cloudy.  0.75 in the bucket yesterday.  Dry out today and much of the week - hovering near normal.  Next rain storm threat Sat (1021) to Sun (10/22).  Beyond there perhaps the coolest airmass of the season so far will be a quick 24 - 48 hour Mon 10/23 - Tue 10/24.  Ridging into the east by the 25th for a period, perhaps a strong turn around ahead of Halloween to much warmer than normal.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Northeast is on track for another warmer October. Some parts of Maine are close to +10. Next few weeks look like more of the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trend of warmest departures north of us is multi year and continues

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 86 (1956)
NYC: 84 (1956)
LGA: 83 (2021)


Lows:

 

EWR: 32 (1937)
NYC:  32 (1876)
LGA: 39 (2009)   

 

 

Historical:

 

1880 - A violent early season blizzard raked Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Yankton SD, and snow drifts 10 to 15 feet high were reported in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Saint Paul MN reported a barometric pressure of 28.65 inches on the 16th. Railroads were blocked by drifts of snow which remained throughout the severe winter to follow. Gales did extensive damage to ship on the Great Lakes. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1954 - Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolina coastline. The hurricane demolished every pier along a 170 mile stretch from Myrtle Beach SC to Cedar Island NC, and obliterated entire lines of beach homes. Hurricane Hazel also destroyed 1500 homes as it moved inland with seventeen foot tides. Winds between Myrtle Beach SC and Cape Fear NC gusted to 150 mph. Hurricane Hazel caused 163 million dollars damage, and claimed the lives of 98 persons. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1954: By 11 pm on the 15th, Hurricane Hazel had reached and crossed the waters of Lake Ontario, still sporting sustained winds as high as 60 mph. Hazel took direct aim at the heart of Toronto as it roared past at 49 mph. Toronto saw heavy rainfall before Hurricane Hazel on the 14th. The previous storm, in combination with the hurricane, resulted in significant flooding. 

1966 - Iowa experienced its worst late season tornado of record. In just one minute a twister tore through the town of Belmond leveling 75 percent of the businesses, and 100 homes, causing more than eleven million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1984: The Monday Night Football game in Denver, Colorado, was played in a raging blizzard. 15 inches of snow fell with up to 34 inches reported in the nearby mountains. The Air Force Academy canceled classes for the first time in its' recorded history.

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the eastern U.S., with thirteen cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Montgomery AL was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. Lows of 32 degrees at Harrisburg PA and 34 degrees at Parkersburg WV marked their third straight morning of record cold. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - The cold high pressure system responsible for the record low temperatures in the eastern U.S. began to move out to sea, giving way to a trend toward "Indian Summer". Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced golf ball size hail at Altamont KS and hail two inches in diameter at Yates City IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Jerry made landfall at Galveston, TX, at 6 30 PM (CDT). Winds at the Galveston Airport reached 75 mph, with gusts to 100 mph. Tides along the island were six to eight feet, and rainfall totals ranged up to slightly more than six inches north of Beaumont. Three persons were killed when their vehicle was blown off the Galveston seawall into the pounding surf. Total damage along the Upper Texas Coast was estimated at fifteen million dollars. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan during the late morning. Two persons were injured when a tree fell on their camper at the Traverse City State park. While strong northerly winds ushered much colder air into the central U.S., unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. The afternoon high of 82 degrees at Bluefield WV was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

                       

[steve392]

Had 3/4" of rain from yesterdays storm.  Wish i had gotten down my winter fertilizer earlier in the week.  Grass would be poppen right now!

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Northeast is on track for another warmer October. Some parts of Maine are close to +10. Next few weeks look like more of the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Been a common theme for a while.  Above normal around here with the warmest departures to our north...and is some cases a lot warmer relative to averages to our north over Maine and southeast Canada.

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Northeast is on track for another warmer October. Some parts of Maine are close to +10. Next few weeks look like more of the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Country flooded with warmth, classic Nino winter incoming

[lee59]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 86 (1956)
NYC: 84 (1956)
LGA: 83 (2021)


Lows:

 

EWR: 32 (1937)
NYC:  32 (1876)
LGA: 39 (2009)   

 

 

Historical:

 

1880 - A violent early season blizzard raked Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Yankton SD, and snow drifts 10 to 15 feet high were reported in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Saint Paul MN reported a barometric pressure of 28.65 inches on the 16th. Railroads were blocked by drifts of snow which remained throughout the severe winter to follow. Gales did extensive damage to ship on the Great Lakes. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1954 - Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolina coastline. The hurricane demolished every pier along a 170 mile stretch from Myrtle Beach SC to Cedar Island NC, and obliterated entire lines of beach homes. Hurricane Hazel also destroyed 1500 homes as it moved inland with seventeen foot tides. Winds between Myrtle Beach SC and Cape Fear NC gusted to 150 mph. Hurricane Hazel caused 163 million dollars damage, and claimed the lives of 98 persons. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1954: By 11 pm on the 15th, Hurricane Hazel had reached and crossed the waters of Lake Ontario, still sporting sustained winds as high as 60 mph. Hazel took direct aim at the heart of Toronto as it roared past at 49 mph. Toronto saw heavy rainfall before Hurricane Hazel on the 14th. The previous storm, in combination with the hurricane, resulted in significant flooding. 

1966 - Iowa experienced its worst late season tornado of record. In just one minute a twister tore through the town of Belmond leveling 75 percent of the businesses, and 100 homes, causing more than eleven million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1984: The Monday Night Football game in Denver, Colorado, was played in a raging blizzard. 15 inches of snow fell with up to 34 inches reported in the nearby mountains. The Air Force Academy canceled classes for the first time in its' recorded history.

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the eastern U.S., with thirteen cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Montgomery AL was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. Lows of 32 degrees at Harrisburg PA and 34 degrees at Parkersburg WV marked their third straight morning of record cold. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - The cold high pressure system responsible for the record low temperatures in the eastern U.S. began to move out to sea, giving way to a trend toward "Indian Summer". Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced golf ball size hail at Altamont KS and hail two inches in diameter at Yates City IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Jerry made landfall at Galveston, TX, at 6 30 PM (CDT). Winds at the Galveston Airport reached 75 mph, with gusts to 100 mph. Tides along the island were six to eight feet, and rainfall totals ranged up to slightly more than six inches north of Beaumont. Three persons were killed when their vehicle was blown off the Galveston seawall into the pounding surf. Total damage along the Upper Texas Coast was estimated at fifteen million dollars. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan during the late morning. Two persons were injured when a tree fell on their camper at the Traverse City State park. While strong northerly winds ushered much colder air into the central U.S., unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. The afternoon high of 82 degrees at Bluefield WV was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

                       

Hurricane Hazel passing well west of our area gave some in our area the highest wind speeds recorded, including NYC. That period from the mid 1950s to the early 1960s is arguably the worst hurricane time in this area.

[SnoSki14]

44 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Country flooded with warmth, classic Nino winter incoming

It is far from a classic Nino. There are major Nina influences involved.

It'll be a mixed pattern. 

Huge Nina like -PNA last week of October. 

[nycwinter]

47 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Country flooded with warmth, classic Nino winter incoming

blustery cold morning here in the city.. i should have worn gloves my hands were so cold...