October 2023

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Another shit weekend after a nice week. Unreal. 

Saturday looks dry for you unless the gfs is right

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Another shit weekend after a nice week. Unreal. 

Plenty more confluence-eaten waves of drizzle though! 

[JerseyWx]

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Another shit weekend after a nice week. Unreal. 

Worst Fall in awhile.  Even this week has been a lot more clouds than sun here.

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Plenty more confluence-eaten waves of drizzle though! 

Hopefully your area doesn’t struggle like this in the winter with snow. The blocking is showing it’s hand this fall 

[psv88]

58 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Saturday looks dry for you unless the gfs is right

It will be a nasty day. Horrific fall

[Brian5671]

Whatever happens looks to be done by 5-6am Sunday and then maybe some partial clearing...

[Stormlover74]

Euro

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro

Looks a little wetter than 0z. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The -PDO tempers my optimism for us, it means even though we have a strong Nino it will try to act like a Nina at times, but hopefully we can at least approach normal snow. We probably go above average temps which isn’t saying much, but Decembers in most Nino years particularly strong one’s torch. If we get one or two big events, I’ll be more than happy to settle on that. Hell I’ll be thrilled with any over 6” event. 

the PDO isn't always in sync with the PNA; IMO it serves to feed back on the ENSO state. for example, a Nina/-PDO is lights out bad because the ENSO configuration usually forces an Aleutian ridge and -PNA that reinforces the -PDO. it's usually the other way around with a +ENSO/+PDO

on the other hand, the strong Nino in place should lead to a general +PNA throughout the winter on average, which should continue to erode the -PDO. we should see the PDO rise as we end the month with the persistent +PNA/-EPO in place... that will warm waters up on the west coast

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Looks a little wetter than 0z. 

Nam as well

[Rtd208]

18z GFS is also a bit wetter.

[donsutherland1]

It will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow as clouds increase ahead of the next storm. A moderate to locally significant rain and wind storm is likely Saturday into Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall appears likely across much of the area. Northern parts of the region could see much lower amounts.

The storm will be followed by another round of unseasonably cool air. Unseasonably cool conditions will likely persist through at least the middle of next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around September 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -0.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.651 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Somewhat of a model consensus but with such a sharp cutoff there's going to be a huge difference across 50 miles

[SnoSki14]

No escape from a crappy Saturday here in north central NJ but at least Sunday might be salvaged.

[Stormlover74]

Rgem comes way north

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

let it be known that my prediction is we get long periods of snow cover. cold and snowy at least 30 inches


.

Wrong thread buddy

[Rjay]

Euro

 

[Rjay]

Ukie

 

[Rjay]

Gfs

 

[Rjay]

Cmc

 

[RU848789]

No offense, but for me and thousands of others, the primary issue is the RU game in Piscataway, with tailgating from maybe 7 am to noon, which looks mostly dry on most models (maybe 0.05-0.1" before noon), but then the steady rains look to move in sometime in the 12-2 pm timeframe on most models (kickoff is noon), so the timing is really critical for fans and there is definitely significant variability on QPF starting around 2 pm, with some models showing 0.1-0.2" from 2-5 pm while others show closer to 0.3-0.4".  

My one big question for folks is where can I find hourly precip forecasts from the models (even if it's a pay site)?  Pivotal premium only has 3 hr increments on some models and 6 hr increments on others and I'd love to see finer output.  i know I can get hourly once the HRRR and RAP are in range, but it would be nice to have that, too for the globals and NAM/RDPS.  Thanks...

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   58degs (52/63) or Normal.

Month to date is   64.3[+2.9].      Should be near 61.8[+1.7] by the 21st.

Reached 71 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  64-67, wind n., few clouds, 52 tomorrow AM.

54*(66%RH) here at 7am.      56* at 9am.     58* at Noon.     60* at 2pm.      62* at 3pm.    63* at 3:30pm.      Reached 66* at 5pm.      62* at 7pm.

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, RU848789 said:

No offense, but for me and thousands of others, the primary issue is the RU game in Piscataway, with tailgating from maybe 7 am to noon, which looks mostly dry on most models (maybe 0.05-0.1" before noon), but then the steady rains look to move in sometime in the 12-2 pm timeframe on most models (kickoff is noon), so the timing is really critical for fans and there is definitely significant variability on QPF starting around 2 pm, with some models showing 0.1-0.2" from 2-5 pm while others show closer to 0.3-0.4".  

My one big question for folks is where can I find hourly precip forecasts from the models (even if it's a pay site)?  Pivotal premium only has 3 hr increments on some models and 6 hr increments on others and I'd love to see finer output.  i know I can get hourly once the HRRR and RAP are in range, but it would be nice to have that, too for the globals and NAM/RDPS.  Thanks...

The NAM 3K is hourly on Pivotal within 60 hrs and also other hi-res models like the ARW, NSSL and FV3. Those are 48-60hr models. I’m not sure where you can find globals hourly output. I think Tropical Tidbits has hourly HRDPS which is the higher res RGEM. 

[Brian5671]

Brutal forecast call-imagine this with a snowstorm?  6z Euro

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

The NAM 3K is hourly on Pivotal within 60 hrs and also other hi-res models like the ARW, NSSL and FV3. Those are 48-60hr models. I’m not sure where you can find globals hourly output. I think Tropical Tidbits has hourly HRDPS which is the higher res RGEM. 

Thanks, did know that, but was more looking for hourly output from the globals and NAM/RDPS, even though the higher resolution convection allowing versions of those (NAM3K and HRDPS) are available hourly, as you noted - but I've observed that sometimes the lower resolution versions do better with non-convective systems like this one.  And TT does have the HRDPS, which is hourly. 

Would also be nice to have IBM's/TWC's GRAF model output somewhere, which supposedly has very good accuracy scores, but I haven't seen it available anywhere (some media outlets use it though) to the public.  

[uofmiami]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Brutal forecast call-imagine this with a snowstorm?  6z Euro

Here’s 6Z euro map

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Here’s 6Z euro map

I think we know the deal, where do the waves of heavy rain start getting eaten by confluence. In Boston it might not get any worse than partly cloudy this weekend. But since we’re in a strong Nino and we’re already seeing signs of strong blocking, could be a coming attraction for a few months from now. 

[SACRUS]

 

55 / 45 off a low of 42.   Think we'll have partly - sunny conditions through the morning into the afternoon.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 89 (1954)
NYC: 87 (1954)
LGA: 86 (1995)

Lows:

 

EWR: 34 (2012)
NYC:  34 (1875)
LGA:  39 (1988) the cool October continued

 

Historical:

 

1846 - A great hurricane tracked across Cuba, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The hurricane inflicted major damage along its entire path, which was similar to the path of Hurricane Hazel 108 years later. The hurricane caused great damage at Key West FL, and at Philadelphia PA it was the most destructive storm in thirty years. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1983: Severe weather in Falls Church, VA, produced 2-3 tornadoes and caused $1 million in damages.

1986 - Four tornadoes struck southeastern Virginia late in the night causing three million dollars damage. Tornadoes at Falls Church VA caused a million dollars damage. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1987 - Fifteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 34 degrees at Meridian MS, 28 degrees at Paducah KY, and 26 degrees at Beckley WV. Another surge of arctic air entered the north central U.S. bringing snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A total of forty-three cities in the eastern U.S. and the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV and Marquette MI where the mercury dipped to 18 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Sixteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s and low 90s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast. Evansville IND and North Platte NE reported record highs of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

 

2006: The October 2006 Buffalo storm was an unusual early-season lake effect snowstorm that hit the Buffalo, New York area, and other surrounding areas of the United States and Canada. Downtown Buffalo reported 15 inches from this event. Depew and Alden record 24 inches, the most from this lake effect storm.