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October 2023


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This would actually be a good trend if we got it in the winter. Much stronger blocking to the north preventing the primary from cutting to the Lakes. So we get a forced redevelopment to our south. If this was the winter, we would be hoping later runs don’t correct north.;)

New run

C6261EA5-ED35-4B01-8C47-38F1F5FFF120.thumb.png.b0c62032f3489e0c37055a255a93b2dc.png

Old run

 

903C6DA0-AA10-4329-8A82-2DE234BBAE0D.thumb.png.c3dd8d663b7410c100aef84b3da8d6ed.png

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This would actually be a good trend if we got it in the winter. Much stronger blocking to the north preventing the primary from cutting to the Lakes. So we get a forced redevelopment to our south. If this was the winter, we would be hoping later runs don’t correct north.;)

New run

C6261EA5-ED35-4B01-8C47-38F1F5FFF120.thumb.png.b0c62032f3489e0c37055a255a93b2dc.png

Old run

 

903C6DA0-AA10-4329-8A82-2DE234BBAE0D.thumb.png.c3dd8d663b7410c100aef84b3da8d6ed.png

What was the setup when we had that October snow event, what was it 2011 now? I remember that being a fairly big deal but details were fuzzy. Just remember driving in snow on my way to a doctor appointment in CNJ. 

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50 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What was the setup when we had that October snow event, what was it 2011 now? I remember that being a fairly big deal but details were fuzzy. Just remember driving in snow on my way to a doctor appointment in CNJ. 

Those were the glory days for the Euro when it believe it was the first model to  show an unusually early season snowstorm in the Northeast. Even though it was too snowy at the immediate coast, it was still the greatest early season snowstorm on record.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those were the glory days for the Euro when it believe it was the first model to  show an unusually early season snowstorm in the Northeast. Even though it was too snowy at the immediate coast, the interior sections got their greatest early season snowstorm of all time.

 

 

One of the biggest disaster in CT history with close to a million w/o power and tree damage-of course the utilities bungled the response which made it all the longer to get power restored.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

One of the biggest disaster in CT history with close to a million w/o power and tree damage-of course the utilities bungled the response which made it all the longer to get power restored.

Crazy how Sandy was exactly a year later. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Those were the glory days for the Euro when it believe it was the first model to  show an unusually early season snowstorm in the Northeast. Even though it was too snowy at the immediate coast, it was still the greatest early season snowstorm on record.

 

 

5 inches here

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Temperatures will slowly warm starting tomorrow.Readings will generally reach the lower and middle 60s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region and middle and upper 60s across southern New Jersey southward.

Looking farther ahead, the probability of a moderate or significant rain and wind storm next weekend has increased. The storm will likely be followed by another round of unseasonably cool air.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around September 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -5.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.688 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal).

 

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16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures will slowly warm starting tomorrow.Readings will generally reach the lower and middle 60s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region and middle and upper 60s across southern New Jersey southward.

Looking farther ahead, the probability of a moderate or significant rain and wind storm next weekend has increased. The storm will likely be followed by another round of unseasonably cool air.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around September 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -5.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.688 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal).

 

More coastal flooding, plus flash flooding out of this system? The ground right now is absolutely saturated.

 

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58 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

For a lot of people it hurts birthday and family plans. Not just about you. 

Yeah this is one of the worst fall's in awhile.  Just terrible weekend after weekend, which is when most of us would like to actually enjoy the weather and seasonal activities.

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2 hours ago, SnowDemon said:

People are really so heartbroken over rainy weekends. :lol:

My wife has a handmade business and does craft fairs 2 or 3 weekends a month. Well, her income has been reduced by 2/3 since June. That hurts. My customers tend to do ~75% of their business on Friday and Saturday, as expected that's taken a solid hit so my income has also been fkd up. At this point it's too late to make any of that back as the outdoor season is winding down so for us at least, it's not just being disappointed. 

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On 10/2/2023 at 8:16 AM, bluewave said:

It’s more impressive if we include all the Friday to Sunday periods going back to June 1st. There were only 2 extended weekends since then with no measurable rainfall in NYC.  So NYC went 16 out of 18 extended weekends with a least one day recording measurable rainfall.

NYC Friday to Sunday rainfall since June 1st

JUN….2-4…0.24

JUN….9-11…0.01

JUN….16-18…0.23

JUN….23-25…0.11

JUL…..30-2….0.58

JUL…..7-9……0.98

JUL…..14-16….1.84

JUL…..21-23….0.15

JUL…..28-30….0.06

AUG…..4-6……T

AUG….11-13….0.69

AUG….18-20….0.77

AUG….25-27…0.96

SEP….1-3….0.00

SEP….8-10…1.92

SEP…15-17…0.23

SEP…22-24….2.21

SEP….29-01….5.52

OCT…….6-8…..0.49

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The next 8 days are averaging   59degs.(54/64) or Normal.

Reached 61 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:  63-66, wind w., scattered clouds, 55 tomorrow AM.

54*(80%RH) here at 7am.      56* at 9am.       60* at Noon.     Reached 65* at 4pm.      61* at 7pm.

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