uofmiami Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 83.5 (84) in Syosset & 83.2 in Muttontown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Almost Looks like a PRE or inverted trough associated with Phillipe as he interacts with the trough. We’ll probably have to wait until this gets within the range of the CAMS to see if this feature is real. Yes exactly. Been showing up on some the models for a couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Just now, Rjay said: Yes exactly. Been showing up on some the models for a couple days. We’ll see if the SPC HREF picks up on it once we are within range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 83 for the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Please continue Looks like a wet and cool pattern ahead 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Please continue Looks like a wet and cool pattern ahead Subject to change of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 85 today in Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 10/4 TEB: 87 New Bnswck: 86 EWR: 85 LGA: 84 PHL: 83 NYC: 83 ISP: 83 BLM: 81 TTN: 81 ACY: 79 JFK: 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 56 and thick fog in spots. Wasn't an issue til i got to higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 63degs.(56/69) or +3. Reached 79 here yesterday at 5:30pm. Today: 74-77, wind e., scattered clouds, 66 tomorrow AM. 63*(86%RH) here at 7am. 66* at 9am. 70* at Noon. 73* at 3pm. Reached 76* at 5pm. 70* at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 56 degrees and fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 NAM keeps most of the rain to the N and W of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 very thick fog driving from westchester into rockland this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 Fog's so thick I can't see the houses the next street downhill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 30 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: very thick fog driving from westchester into rockland this morning. Fog seems to be getting thicker too on our camera's at work in Mahwah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 Living along the Wallkill River this is fog season, here's a shot from this morning driving up the hill and out of the fog 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 16 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Living along the Wallkill River this is fog season, here's a shot from this morning driving up the hill and out of the fog Good morning Rob a magnificent photo. It brings to mind the last few lines of S & G’s Homeward Bound. Home where my thought escapin’ Home where my musics playin’ Home where my love lies waitin’ Silently for me Silently for me ……………….. Sadly no longer, stay well, as always …… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 13 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Subject to change of course. it looks like will be in a pattern of stormy weather next few weeks.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 5, 2023 Author Share Posted October 5, 2023 This and the HRRR 48 hour were the best for the record deluge NYC last Friday. This and other models are hinting spot 3-5" NYC forum... where exactly is not confidently stated yet... but have a look at this through 22z/Saturday. Highlighted an amount near NYC...most of this Saturday. Click for clarity. 105P/5. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 5, 2023 Author Share Posted October 5, 2023 Adding on: NWS mid shift 10/5 (00z cycle) excessive guidance for Saturday was more expansive than the conservative GEFS qpf, for Saturday. See the AI left and NWS right. Click for clarity. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 Euro heavy around the city north and east with a sharp cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro heavy around the city north and east with a sharp cutoff 3 inches to nothing in about 30 miles...Going to be some that get crushed, others get next to nothing... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 2 hours ago, wdrag said: This and the HRRR 48 hour were the best for the record deluge NYC last Friday. This and other models are hinting spot 3-5" NYC forum... where exactly is not confidently stated yet... but have a look at this through 22z/Saturday. Highlighted an amount near NYC...most of this Saturday. Click for clarity. 105P/5. Interesting…thanks for posting. https://gsl.noaa.gov/focus-areas/unified_forecast_system/rrfs Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2024 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). Experimental runs of the HRRRE at GSL are focused particularly on: Improving 0-12 h high-resolution forecasts through ensemble-based, multi-scale data assimilation Producing spread in 0-36 h ensemble forecasts through initial-condition perturbations, boundary-condition perturbations, and stochastic physics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 5, 2023 Author Share Posted October 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Interesting…thanks for posting. https://gsl.noaa.gov/focus-areas/unified_forecast_system/rrfs Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2024 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). Experimental runs of the HRRRE at GSL are focused particularly on: Improving 0-12 h high-resolution forecasts through ensemble-based, multi-scale data assimilation Producing spread in 0-36 h ensemble forecasts through initial-condition perturbations, boundary-condition perturbations, and stochastic physics. Excellent addition-explanation of where we may be going. Takes time. I think the SPC HREF, HRRR and RRFS should have a better idea of amounts and axis..especaily the 12z/6 versions but even the 00z/6 should be of use. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 Just now, wdrag said: Excellent addition-explanation of where we may be going. Takes time. I think the SPC HREF, HRRR and RRFS should have a better idea of amounts and axis..especaily the 12z/6 versions but even the 00z/6 should be of use. I wonder what it would be like to run a global system like that out to 360 hrs as an ensemble mean. I have read they want to upgrade the ECMWF EPS to 4-5 km closer to convection allowing resolution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 Topped out at 75F, east wind off the water knocked back the temps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Topped out at 75F, east wind off the water knocked back the temps today. yep defintely had an effect here too-got to 74 on my home thermometer-down to 71 now-going to miss this kind of weather-what a great 5 day stretch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 76 my high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 Gfs for next Friday and Saturday 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 77 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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