October 2023

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   64degs.(58/71) or +3.

Reached 74 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:   78-82, wind var., few clouds, 65 tomorrow AM.

65*(93%RH) at 7am.     67* at 9am.      69* at 10am.       71* at Noon.     74* at 3pm.      75* at 4pm.      Reached 79* at 5:30pm.       

[steve392]

8 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

No color here as far as I can tell but the leaves are dropping 

Young tree's here in bergen county are getting some nice color already.  Mahwah, NJ slowly getting the older tree's to change.

[lee59]

57 the low here, up some 5 degrees from yesterday.

[SACRUS]

 

10./3 (Highs)

 

EWR: 85
New Bnswck: 83
LGA: 83
TEB: 83
PHL: 82
BLM: 81
TTN: 81
NYC: 80
ACY: 79
ISP: 78
JFK: 75

 

[SACRUS]

60 / 58 48 more hour hors of the dry pleasant and vert warm weather.  Today more low and some places mid 80s again.  Records safe though.  Thursday appears to be last shot at 80.

Trough digs in and front comes through later Fri (10/6) and Sat (10/7).  Beyond there much cooler / near - below normal with frist forst and freezes inland - mountains first freezes.  Overall trough into the east and looks wet through the 10/12 before perhaps a brief warmup southerly low bringing more rain.

 

[bluewave]

Record warmth to start October as EWR and HPN tied their record highs.

 

Data for October 3 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2023-10-03	85	59	0.00	0.0	0
1950-10-03	85	61	0.00	0.0	0
2021-10-03	84	56	0.00	0.0	0
2002-10-03	84	63	0.04	0.0	0
1968-10-03	83	65	0.04	0.0	0
1967-10-03	83	53	0.00	0.0	0

 

Data for October 3 - WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2023-10-03	80	54	0.00	M	M
1983-10-03	80	60	0.00	0.0	0
2000-10-03	79	M	0.00	0.0	0
2006-10-03	78	49	0.00	M	M
2001-10-03	78	51	0.00	M	M
1968-10-03	78	63	0.02	0.0	0
1953-10-03	78	44	0.00	0.0	0

[SACRUS]

 

Records: 

 

Highs:

10/3
EWR: 85 (2023)
NYC: 87 (1919)
LGA: 85 (2000)
 

 

10/4:
EWR: 89 (2013)
NYC: 88 (1941)
LGA: 86 (2013)


Lows:

 

 

10/3:

EWR: 37 (1945)
NYC: 38 (1974)
LGA: 40 (1974*)


10/4:
EWR: 33 (1945) - 40s cool falls
NYC: 37 (1888)
LGA: 38 (1945)

Historical:

 

10/3:

1841 - An October gale, the worst of record for Nantucket, MA, caught the Cap Cod fishing fleet at sea. Forty ships were driven ashore on Cape Cod, and 57 men perished from the town of Truro alone. Heavy snow fell inland, with 18 inches near Middletown, CT. (David Ludlum)

1903: An unusual late-season tornado moved northeast from west of Chatfield, Minnesota, passing through and devastating St. Charles, Minnesota. Seven people were killed, and 30 injured as 50 homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed.

1912 - The longest dry spell of record in the U.S. commenced as Bagdad, CA, went 767 days without rain. (David Ludlum)

1964 - Hurricane Hilda struck Louisiana spawning many tornadoes, and claimed twenty-two lives. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1979 - The first killer tornado of record in October in Connecticut destroyed sixteen vintage aircraft at the Bradley Air Museum in Windsor Locks. The tornado damaged more than one hundred homes causing 200 million dollars damage. Three persons were killed, and 500 others were injured. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - Remnants of Hurricane Paine deluged Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas with 6 to 10 inch overnight rains. Hardy, OK, was drenched with 21.79 inches. Heavy rain between September 26th and October 4th caused 350 million dollars damage in Oklahoma. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Twenty-five cities in the Upper Midwest, including ten in Iowa, reported record low temperatures for the date. Duluth MN, Eau Claire, WI, and Spencer, IA, dipped to 24 degrees. Temperatures warmed into the 80s in the Northern and Central High Plains Region. At Chadron, NE, the mercury soared from a morning low of 29 degrees to an afternoon high of 88 degrees. Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in southern California. The high of 108 degrees at Downtown Los Angeles was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Cold Canadian air invaded the north central U.S. bringing an end to the growing season across those states. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix, AZ, reported a record high of 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley. A dozen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Bismarck, ND, and Williston, ND, with readings of 16 degrees above zero. An upper level weather disturbance brought snow to parts of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana, with five inches reported at West Yellowstone, MT. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2002: Hurricane Lili made landfall between White Lake and Vermilion Bay, Louisiana as a Category 1 storm.

2015: Unprecedented rainfall fell throughout South Carolina from October 1st — 5th, 2015. Storm total amounts greater than 20" were observed in Columbia and Sumter.

2017: The City of Houston had the wettest year on record with 73.51 inches. The previous wettest year was in 1900 when 72.86 inches were measured.

 

 

10/4:

 

1777 - The Battle of Germantown was fought in a morning fog that grew more dense with the smoke of battle, causing great confusion. Americans firing at each other contributed to the loss of the battle. (David Ludlum)

1869 - A great storm struck New England. The storm reportedly was predicted twelve months in advance by a British officer named Saxby. Heavy rains and high floods plagued all of New England, with strong winds and high tides over New Hampshire and Maine. Canton CT was deluged with 12.35 inches of rain. (David Ludlum)

1969 - Denver, CO, received 9.6 inches of snow. October of that year proved to be the coldest and snowiest of record for Denver, with a total snowfall for the month of 31.2 inches. (Weather Channel)

1986 - Excessive flooding was reported along the Mississippi River and all over the Midwest, from Ohio to the Milk River in Montana. In some places it was the worst flooding of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - A storm brought record snows to the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 21 inches at North Springfield VT. It was the earliest snow of record for some locations. The storm claimed 17 lives in central New York State, injured 332 persons, and in Vermont caused seventeen million dollars damage. The six inch snow at Albany NY was their earliest measurable snow in 117 years of records. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Southern California continued to "shake and bake". An earthquake was reported during the morning, the second in a matter of days, and during the afternoon temperatures soared well above 100 degrees. Highs of 100 degrees at San Francisco, and 108 degrees at Los Angeles and Santa Maria, were October records. San Luis Obispo was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 111 degrees. (The National Weather Summary).

1988 - Temperatures dipped below freezing in the north central U.S. Five cities in North Dakota and Nebraska reported record low temperatures for the date, including Bismarck ND with a reading of 17 degrees above zero. Low pressure brought snow and sleet to parts of Upper Michigan. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the north central U.S., with freezing temperatures reported across much of the area from eastern North Dakota to Michigan and northwest Ohio. Thirteen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Cloud MN, which was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 19 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

2013: While western South Dakota was dealing with a crippling blizzard, the tri-state region of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa saw several tornadoes, including an EF-4. This violent tornado started 2 miles southwest of Climbing Hill, Iowa, flattening corn crops and snapping tree trunks. As the tornado moved northeast, it intensified and struck a farmstead approximately 5 miles west-northwest of Correctionville, Iowa. Sheds and other buildings were severely damaged or destroyed, with the residence being severely damaged. The tornado continued to increase in both size and magnitude as it continued on its trek northeast. The tornado reached its maximum intensity 2.5 miles south of Pierson, Iowa, when this mile-wide tornado struck two farmsteads. Numerous outbuildings and barns were destroyed, with farm equipment being tossed over 400 yards. It was here that the tornado was rated EF-4. The tornado stayed southeast of Pierson, Iowa, and to the west of Washta, Iowa. Before lifting, the tornado produced more tree damage and downed power poles and lines 2 miles west of Washta, Iowa. 

[bluewave]

Looks like we keep the rain on the weekends theme for a while longer. Rain with the cold front this weekend. Then another storm possible for next weekend.

 

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we keep the rain on the weekends theme for a while longer. Rain with the cold front this weekend. Then another storm possible for next weekend.

 

 

Models have been honing in on a storm  in the period in that 10/13 - 10/14 window last few runs.   After the cool down low from the sw into perhaps a coastal.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Models have been honing in on a storm  in the period in that 10/13 - 10/14 window last few runs.   After the cool down low from the sw into perhaps a coastal.

More possible beach erosion with the new moon next weekend if the storm can develop enough. Then some of the highest astronomical tides of the fall with the full moon near the end of the month. That’s one period when any possible coastal storms would only need a +0.75 surge for minor, +1.75 for moderate and +2.3 to +2.5 for low end major coastal flooding.
 

[BxEngine]

Some of the worst fog ive eve seen earlier this morning. A couple hundred foot visibility in low lying areas. TZ in that fog somewhere. 

[uofmiami]

 

[weatherpruf]

16 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Some of the worst fog ive eve seen earlier this morning. A couple hundred foot visibility in low lying areas. TZ in that fog somewhere. 

Went out to sea yesterday....fished the middle between the Rockaways and Sandy Hook, used to call it the Mud Buoy. Weather was nice but there are still swells out there and it was all I could do to keep from hurling. Fishing, as it has been for years now, was equally horrible. All the fish are in LI Sound now, while I watched draggers cleaning out what's left over here. The ocean has not been flat calm in weeks ( swells are not flat calm ). Where is this photo from? We are thinking of running Hell Gate and heading into the Sound next time. Can't be any worse, and no swells.....

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we keep the rain on the weekends theme for a while longer. Rain with the cold front this weekend. Then another storm possible for next weekend.

 

Yes, and a pretty good chance of above  normal October rain totals.   GEFS lags again (seems to in my end) through the 18th, GEPS about 2.5" and EPS 3-3.5".  Obviously 00z-06z/4 ensemble projections and one of the see is large error... but the pattern evolution looks to me to be trough east this month. 

[SACRUS]

 

Rocketing to 80 already before noon

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Rocketing to 80 already before noon

probably the warmest day til next spring...

[FPizz]

82 currently.  Great day to have the pool closed, haha.

[lee59]

82 here

[bluewave]

Record heat today on Long Island. We haven’t had an October record low on Long Island since 2003. Good early signal for the record cold that followed in January 2004. Reynolds Channel between Long Beach and Island Park was nearly frozen all the way across near the bridge. 

 

[Brian5671]

Odd precip distro on the 12z Euro

[winterwx21]

86 degrees here. Really feels like summer. I'm enjoying this last summer-like week, but also looking forward to the cooler weather for Sunday and next week. 

Models still giving most of us just light to moderate amounts of rain Saturday, but potential for heavier amounts for LI and CT. Then a nice cool-dry stretch for Sunday through most of next week, before another possible storm next weekend. 

[LoboLeader1]

83F here.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

82 currently.  Great day to have the pool closed, haha.

I was gonna start bow hunting yesterday, but 80s seems like ridiculously warm hunting weather. More like pool weather, lol. So I'm gonna start the bow hunting tomorrow.  A little more reasonable hunting weather tomorrow with temps in mid-upper 70s. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Odd precip distro on the 12z Euro

Almost Looks like a PRE or inverted trough associated with Phillipe as he interacts with the trough. We’ll probably have to wait until this gets within the range of the CAMS to see if this feature is real. 

[brooklynwx99]

there is an increased risk for a larger storm next week as the deep trough this weekend leads to the development of a potent west-based -NAO block. the block decays and the GoA trough pumps a +PNA ridge at the same time. this is not too dissimilar from the pattern evolutions for NYC's largest winter storms, so the risk for a nor'easter is quite a bit higher than normal

[SnoSki14]

Pattern looks very active starting this weekend 

[steve392]

25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Pattern looks very active starting this weekend 

Would be nice to have decent weekend off from work...  Been easily 2 months since i had a decent one.

[bluewave]

Too much SE flow today here so the most impressive records going north.

 

 

[forkyfork]

newark making it to 85 this late on se winds is still impressive 

[lee59]

82.7 here today. Probably the last 80 until next year but you never know.