October 2023

[donsutherland1]

Boosted by a flood of sunshine, temperatures ranged from the middle 70s to even lower 80s across the region. In the Plains States and Great Lakes Region much more intense heat prevailed. October monthly records included:

Eau Claire, WI: 89°
Marshall, MN: 94°
Minneapolis: 92°
Saint Cloud, MN: 91°
Sioux Falls, SD: 95°
Spencer, IA: 95°

Across parts of France, Spain, and Italy hundreds of monthly records were beaten, some by 10°. Spain also saw a 101° (38.2°C) temperature, which set a new national October record.

Warmer than normal weather will continue for much of the first week of October. Temperatures could reach 80° or above on several days next week.

Colder air could push into the East during the upcoming weekend. The cold air will be preceded by showers or periods of rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around September 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -5.03 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.354 today.

 

[wdrag]

6 hours ago, wdrag said:

Maybe bluewave or someone else with more energy than I would like to post how often are our weekends (Sat-Sun filled with 1" or greater rain since late June?  Note sure the easiest way to track it, but you all are probably more up on this than I. 

As you know, I've had to give up on the subtropical transition early this week as the reflux storm has tracked more se than South.  However, I'm still interested in next weekend here and the following as well (7-8, 14-15). Both seem to have some sort of storminess here... whether it ends up just a 1/4-3/4" CFP, or something a little bigger with a coastal low... still tbd but I'm not done looking off the se coast for a little development later this week and northward ingest Saturday.  

 

The EPS right now lags the ever amplifying GEFS into the eastern USA next Fri-Saturday.  If its flatter, then just a windy cfp. If not, then gets a little more interesting for a possible 1-3" event.  Too early for me.

I take a few min to check  CP ~1/2" or greater rainfall on weekend days and I've got 7/2,9,16; 8/13, 26, and 9/10,23 and the still a little wet 9/30. More or less if you use CP for cursory guidance, not the most pleasant JAS portions of weekends. 

[SACRUS]

 

10/1

 

EWR: 82
PHL: 81
New Bnswck: 80
TEB: 79
TTN: 78
BLM: 78
JFK: 77
LGA: 77
ACY: 77
ISP: 76
NYC: 76

[psv88]

76 here 

[LoboLeader1]

76F here yesterday, good chance we might reach 80 today. 

[SnoSki14]

Heat will peak Tue/Wed but 80s likely all four days until clouds ruin it by Friday. 

Return to seasonably cool by Saturday and beyond. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  68degs.(61/75) or +6.

Looks stormy and turning BN after the 8th.      Mix-Master 12th-15th.   We will see if warm start allows AN finish or almosts disappears like September.

Reached 79 here yesterday 5pm-6pm.

Today:   75-79, wind n., scattered clouds, 65 tomorrow AM.

66*(80%RH) here at 7am.     70* at 9am.       Reached 75* at 3pm.     73* at 6pm.     69* at 7pm.

 

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Heat will peak Tue/Wed but 80s likely all four days until clouds ruin it by Friday. 

Return to seasonably cool by Saturday and beyond. 

More rain next weekend 

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, wdrag said:

I take a few min to check  CP ~1/2" or greater rainfall on weekend days and I've got 7/2,9,16; 8/13, 26, and 9/10,23 and the still a little wet 9/30. More or less if you use CP for cursory guidance, not the most pleasant JAS portions of weekends. 

It’s more impressive if we include all the Friday to Sunday periods going back to June 1st. There were only 2 extended weekends since then with no measurable rainfall in NYC.  So NYC went 16 out of 18 extended weekends with a least one day recording measurable rainfall.

NYC Friday to Sunday rainfall since June 1st

JUN….2-4…0.24

JUN….9-11…0.01

JUN….16-18…0.23

JUN….23-25…0.11

JUL…..30-2….0.58

JUL…..7-9……0.98

JUL…..14-16….1.84

JUL…..21-23….0.15

JUL…..28-30….0.06

AUG…..4-6……T

AUG….11-13….0.69

AUG….18-20….0.77

AUG….25-27…0.96

SEP….1-3….0.00

SEP….8-10…1.92

SEP…15-17…0.23

SEP…22-24….2.21

SEP….29-01….5.52

[Volcanic Winter]

So happy it’s October! Beginning to feel the joy of looking to the holidays and looming winter beyond, best part of the year (IMHO of course). 

There’s something about that Nov-Jan stretch that I just find magical, it probably goes back to how much I loved the holiday period as a kid (as well as snow, my parents had to drag me inside after hours outside in the 96 blizzard lol). 

[SACRUS]

 

70 / 60 and mostly clear.  Enjoy the next 3 1/2 days (for those who prefer sunny / dry fall weather).  Last of the 80s likely in sight till next spring.  Warm and dry through Friday.  Still have NNE flow but overall warm especially inland.  Peak 850 MB temps >16C / 17c arrive Thu (10/5) and Fri (10/6) as flow come around to the SW - but trough is pushing front east and clouds and showers by later Friday and Sat (10/7).  Clearing by Sun (10/8) .  10/9 - 10/13 much cooler first frost/ freeze in the mountains / NW sections.  Beyond there trough into the E/NE spells more rain so overall wet and near/below normal by mid month.  We''ll see how that persists or if warmer close becomes  posisble.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 96 (2019) - Records safe for a long while
NYC: 93 (2019)
LGA: 95 (2019)


Lows:

EWR: 39 (1997)
NYC: 39 (1886)
LGA: 42 (2003)

Historical:

 

1858: The only hurricane to impact California struck San Diego on this day. Two researchers with NOAA Michael Chenoweth and Christopher Landsea reconstructed the path of the storm using accounts from newspapers of the high winds. They estimated that if a similar storm were to have hit in 2004, it would have caused around $500 million in damage.

 

1882 - An early season windstorm over Oregon and northern California blew down thousands of trees and caused great crop damage in the Sacramento Valley. (David Ludlum)

 

1898: A Category 4 hurricane made landfall in Georgia on this day. This is the most recent major (Cat 3 or stronger) hurricane to make landfall in Georgia.

 

1894: A tornado passed over the Little Rock, Arkansas Weather Bureau office on this day.

1959 - A tornado struck the town of Ivy, VA (located near Charlottesville). Eleven persons were killed, including ten from one family. (The Weather Channel)

1980 - The temperature at Blue Canyon, CA, soared to 88 degrees, an October record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - Severe thunderstorms raked Phoenix, AZ, with heavy rain, high winds, and hail up to an inch and a half in diameter, for the second day in a row. Thunderstorms on the 1st deluged Phoenix with .68 inch of rain in five minutes, equalling their all-time record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A fast moving cold front produced snow flurries from Minnesota to the Appalachian Mountains, and gale force winds behind the front ushered cold air into the Great Lakes Region. Valentine NE reported a record low of 25 degrees. Temperatures recovered rapidly in the Northern High Plains Region, reaching the lower 80s by afternoon. Jackson, WY, warmed from a morning low of 21 degrees to an afternoon high of 76 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Early morning thunderstorms in Georgia produced three inches of rain at Canton and Woodstock. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Flooding due to thunderstorm rains in the southeastern U.S. on the last day of September and the first day of October caused the Etowah River to rise seven feet above flood stage at Canton GA. Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in northeastern Georgia, with six inches reported at Athens GA in 24 hours. One man was killed, and another man was injured, when sucked by floodwaters into drainage lines. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s more impressive if we include all the Friday to Sunday periods going back to June 1st. There were only 2 extended weekends since then with no measurable rainfall in NYC.  So NYC went 16 out of 18 extended weekends with a least one day recording measurable rainfall.

NYC Friday to Sunday rainfall since June 1st

JUN….2-4…0.24

JUN….9-11…0.01

JUN….16-18…0.23

JUN….23-25…0.11

JUL…..30-2….0.58

JUL…..7-9……0.98

JUL…..14-16….1.84

JUL…..21-23….0.15

JUL…..28-30….0.06

AUG…..4-6……T

AUG….11-13….0.69

AUG….18-20….0.77

AUG….25-27…0.96

SEP….1-3….0.00

SEP….8-10…1.92

SEP…15-17…0.23

SEP…22-24….2.21

SEP….29-01….5.52

I am going to do the same for Tuesdays / Wednesdays

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s more impressive if we include all the Friday to Sunday periods going back to June 1st. There were only 2 extended weekends since then with no measurable rainfall in NYC.  So NYC went 16 out of 18 extended weekends with a least one day recording measurable rainfall.

NYC Friday to Sunday rainfall since June 1st

JUN….2-4…0.24

JUN….9-11…0.01

JUN….16-18…0.23

JUN….23-25…0.11

JUL…..30-2….0.58

JUL…..7-9……0.98

JUL…..14-16….1.84

JUL…..21-23….0.15

JUL…..28-30….0.06

AUG…..4-6……T

AUG….11-13….0.69

AUG….18-20….0.77

AUG….25-27…0.96

SEP….1-3….0.00

SEP….8-10…1.92

SEP…15-17…0.23

SEP…22-24….2.21

SEP….29-01….5.52

Thank you for this...  I guess I have to play it more conservative.  Reasons: timing of the rain (nighttime is less impact on outdoor), amounts, and some folks would say you can't include Friday.  Both our evals do confirm AMWX participant sentiments. Thank you again for double checking... takes time to do this. Thanks.

[JustinRP37]

Don’t think it will anytime soon, but we really need to dry out. This is heavy rain is really wrecking our infrastructure. We could use a solid 2-3 weeks of sunshine and we would still probably have plenty of ground moisture at this point. Not to mention the nutrients beginning to leach out of our soil. 

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thank you for this...  I guess I have to play it more conservative.  Reasons: timing of the rain (nighttime is less impact on outdoor), amounts, and some folks would say you can't include Friday.  Both our evals do confirm AMWX participant sentiments. Thank you again for double checking... takes time to do this. Thanks.

anecdotal but we have neighborhood gatherings every friday evening from July thru september and none were canceled due to rain but in some cases it was just luck or timing as storms were nearby or rain moved in a few hours after midnight like 9/23

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Don’t think it will anytime soon, but we really need to dry out. This is heavy rain is really wrecking our infrastructure. We could use a solid 2-3 weeks of sunshine and we would still probably have plenty of ground moisture at this point. Not to mention the nutrients beginning to leach out of our soil. 

This week will help-hopefully the frontal rains Sat end up light or non existent

[steve392]

Absolutely gorgeous out.  74 degrees with crystal blue skies.  Very little if any haze. 

[psv88]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

anecdotal but we have neighborhood gatherings every friday evening from July thru september and none were canceled due to rain but in some cases it was just luck or timing as storms were nearby or rain moved in a few hours after midnight like 9/23

September has been very wet on the weekends. Worst September I can remember. 

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, psv88 said:

September has been very wet on the weekends. Worst September I can remember. 

Other than Labor Day weekend each weekend day had at least one washout with one weekend having both days lost...

[MJO812]

Rainy and cool pattern coming up after this week.

[Jacob brooklyn]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rainy and cool pattern coming up after this week.

I hope the roof is fixed

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rainy and cool pattern coming up after this week.

I’ll take it, gross out today, I think I must have started acclimatizing back to cool. 

[winterwx21]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

This week will help-hopefully the frontal rains Sat end up light or non existent

And today's Euro isn't very impressed with Saturday. It weakens it and just gives us some showers, and then cooler/dry weather after that. Very little rain through day 10.  Hopefully that will be the case. 

[winterwx21]

80 degrees here. Beautiful day. 

Probably gonna hit 83 or 84 tomorrow and Wednesday. A nice last taste of summer this week. 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And today's Euro isn't very impressed with Saturday. It weakens it and just gives us some showers, and then cooler/dry weather after that. Very little rain through day 10.  Hopefully that will be the case. 

Euro hasn't had the best track record lately.

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro hasn't had the best track record lately.

CMC is dry too. Hopefully we're in for an extended dry period. 

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And today's Euro isn't very impressed with Saturday. It weakens it and just gives us some showers, and then cooler/dry weather after that. Very little rain through day 10.  Hopefully that will be the case. 

hoping that ends up the case with it being a frontal passage-maybe a line of showers and that's it...

[Rmine1]

Perfect October beach day. Just spent two hours body surfing at RM5. Water was chilly, but manageable.

[gravitylover]

^ Yeah, I might have to do that on Wednesday