October 2023

[wdrag]

On 9/24/2023 at 9:23 AM, wdrag said:

Started thread because of my concern for a higher impact sub tropical storm off the mid-Atlantic coast combining with tides 1/2-3/4 foot higher than what we saw for Ophelia this weekend of Sept 23rd-24th.  Would compound damage from Ophelia, especially beach erosion with constancy of northeast wind from Sept 22 through probably October 3rd. 

Near constant at least one daily high tide cycle NJ coast from Tuesday Sept 24 through today Oct 1 has had minor coastal flooding, spotty near moderate flooding, including that of today (10/1).  Beach erosion had to be significant and may not know the whole story for a while. 

[nycwinter]

it was warm out in the sun i guess i will have to put the hoodie away for the next few days

[snywx]

70/58 right now & not a cloud in the sky! 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Near constant at least one daily high tide cycle NJ coast from Tuesday Sept 24 through today Oct 1 has had minor coastal flooding, spotty near moderate flooding, including that of today (10/1).  Beach erosion had to be significant and may not know the whole story for a while. 

Beaches here are rough too. Glad to see the sun finally, no smoke here thankfully. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

Unbelievable. After several days of miserable skies and weather, as soon as the clouds clear, the smoke is back! I can't believe it's October and there's fires still raging in Quebec, arguably they never really got extinguished. Was hoping for a nice day with blue skies but that will have to wait

You can't make this stuff up!

Same here in Southern CT. Just a little thinner than it was earlier. Off the charts wildfire season in Canada. 
 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

77 at ewr. Probably the first of 4 straight 80s there

[SnoSki14]

October could be stormy after the first week with first taste Fri/Sat. 

Also a non-zero chance we get some tropical influence from Philippe if the track shifts west. 

But +PNA/-NAO and AO trending negative are stormy indicators. 

[Rtd208]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

October could be stormy after the first week with first taste Fri/Sat. 

Also a non-zero chance we get some tropical influence from Philippe if the track shifts west. 

But +PNA/-NAO and AO trending negative are stormy indicators. 

Hopefully we get some good nor'easters cranking. We'll see.

[Rtd208]

 

[Cfa]

73 under smoky skies.

[Dark Star]

3 minutes ago, Cfa said:

73 under smoky skies.

Not a hint of haze in Garwood, central Union County, NJ...

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Not a hint of haze in Garwood, central Union County, NJ...

I noticed some earlier 

[psv88]

74 here and beautiful 

[Rtd208]

59 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Just as an additional comment to my post above. If he is implying at this point it will be a warmer and snowless winter in the E US then he is no better then the ones he is posting about.

[SACRUS]

 

78 / 52 here.  Very nice out after the 9 of 10 days of clouds/rain

 

Smoke offshore /E-LI

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Definitely some haze in the air in wantagh, still at my dads finishing cleaning up from the storm. 
The current issue is the water table is up so much it’s causing water to continue to trickle into the basement. Another heavy rain event soon would be very bad.

[jm1220]

Beautiful in Long Beach, smoke cleared out thankfully. A COC day as they put it in the New England forum. The beach took a rough hit and possibly more to come @wdrag 

[wdrag]

Maybe bluewave or someone else with more energy than I would like to post how often are our weekends (Sat-Sun filled with 1" or greater rain since late June?  Note sure the easiest way to track it, but you all are probably more up on this than I. 

As you know, I've had to give up on the subtropical transition early this week as the reflux storm has tracked more se than South.  However, I'm still interested in next weekend here and the following as well (7-8, 14-15). Both seem to have some sort of storminess here... whether it ends up just a 1/4-3/4" CFP, or something a little bigger with a coastal low... still tbd but I'm not done looking off the se coast for a little development later this week and northward ingest Saturday.  

 

The EPS right now lags the ever amplifying GEFS into the eastern USA next Fri-Saturday.  If its flatter, then just a windy cfp. If not, then gets a little more interesting for a possible 1-3" event.  Too early for me.

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Beautiful in Long Beach, smoke cleared out thankfully. A COC day as they put it in the New England forum. The beach took a rough hit and possibly more to come @wdrag 

 

35 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Maybe bluewave or someone else with more energy than I would like to post how often are our weekends (Sat-Sun filled with 1" or greater rain since late June?  Note sure the easiest way to track it, but you all are probably more up on this than I. 

As you know, I've had to give up on the subtropical transition early this week as the reflux storm has tracked more se than South.  However, I'm still interested in next weekend here and the following as well (7-8, 14-15). Both seem to have some sort of storminess here... whether it ends up just a 1/4-3/4" CFP, or something a little bigger with a coastal low... still tbd but I'm not done looking off the se coast for a little development later this week and northward ingest Saturday.  

 

The EPS right now lags the ever amplifying GEFS into the eastern USA next Fri-Saturday.  If its flatter, then just a windy cfp. If not, then gets a little more interesting fort a possible 1-3" event.  Too early for me.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Beautiful in Long Beach, smoke cleared out thankfully. A COC day as they put it in the New England forum. The beach took a rough hit and possibly more to come @wdrag 

I think we lost more beach in the last month than the last several years combined. Major long period hurricane energy followed by endless easterly flow and resulting higher tides. If we get a big one this year it could set us back to sandy levels. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think we lost more beach in the last month than the last several years combined. Major long period hurricane energy followed by endless easterly flow and resulting higher tides. If we get a big one this year it could set us back to sandy levels. 

Yeah, the Army Corps will have to return to places like Fire Island to repair the dunes. Very risky in this era of more extreme weather to build right on the dunes like that.

 

 

[Rtd208]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Army Corps will have to return to places like Fire Island to repair the dunes. Very risky in this era of more extreme weather to build right on the dunes like that.

 

 

Gotta love the finger pointing, just fix the damn thing. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Gotta love the finger pointing, just fix the damn thing. 

I can remember all the back and forth about what to do about erosion from my days living in Long Beach. They had proposals before Hurricane Sandy to build higher dunes. But many people near the beach didn’t want the dunes obstructing their view of the ocean. So they kicked the can for years and finally did the new dunes after Sandy. There was a section in Lido Beach with very high dunes that did very well. The people just got used to not being able to see the ocean from their first floors. But the section of Lido Beach with low dunes and better views around the Lido Towers suffered heavy damage from the waves pounding the first floor and knocking out walls.

[forkyfork]

houses close to beaches need to be outlawed

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I can remember all the back and forth about what to do about erosion from my days living in Long Beach. They had proposals before Hurricane Sandy to build higher dunes. But many people near the beach didn’t want the dunes obstructing their view of the ocean. So they kicked the can for years and finally did the new dunes after Sandy. There was a section in Lido Beach with very high dunes that did very well. The people just got used to not being able to see the ocean from their first floors. But the section of Lido Beach with low dunes and better views around the Lido Towers suffered heavy damage from the waves pounding the first floor and knocking out walls.

Its a double edged sword, the residents pay big money for those views and to live where they live but the trade off is your more vunerable. I guess I undertand both sides of it. If I am going to pay that kind of money I think I would rather lose the view from the 1st floor then lose my house. To each their own.

[bluewave]

Just now, Rtd208 said:

Its a double edged sword, the residents pay big money for those views and to live where they live but the trade off is your more vunerable. I guess I undertand both sides of it. If I am going to pay that kind of money I think I would rather lose the view from the 1st floor then lose my house. To each their own.

The Lido Dunes section near the famous Marvel ice cream stand to the Mushrooms had the best Dune protection and it served them very well. Most people have two story houses with the ocean view from their upstairs. That is a good compromise. Those are some of the most sought after homes on the entire barrier island. Long Beach had very small dunes that got flattened by Sandy with the houses immediately behind them suffering major damage. Long Beach is still having problems with their infrastructure after Sandy. Had some friends tell me that they went to a restaurant about a week ago in Long Beach and their were issues with sewer back ups and bad smells outside the restaurant. Also spoke to a few business owners in the years after Sandy and said they were continuing to have issues with toilets not flushing very well and having to call the city for assistance. 

[Rtd208]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Lido Dunes section near the famous Marvel ice cream stand to the Mushrooms had the best Dune protection and it served them very well. Most people have two story houses with the ocean view from their upstairs. That is a good compromise. Those are some of the most sought after homes on the entire barrier island. Long Beach had very small dunes that got flattened by Sandy with the houses immediately behind them suffering major damage. Long Beach is still having problems with their infrastructure after Sandy. Had some friends tell me that they went to a restaurant about a week ago in Long Beach and their were issues with sewer back ups and bad smells outside the restaurant. Also spoke to a few business owners in the years after Sandy and said they were continuing to have issues with toilets not flushing very well and having to call the city for assistance. 

Wow thats crazy. Over a decade since Sandy hit and there are still issues. That's honestly sad. Blame it on politics and red tape.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Wow thats crazy. Over a decade since Sandy hit and there are still issues. That's honestly sad. Blaem it on politics and red tape.

While I loved living in Long Beach, they were always having mismanagement issues that lead to tax increases. They have been having some big financial struggles since Sandy. The locals aren’t happy that they are planning a very large ocean front condo and apartment complex. They are worried about more tax increases and stress on the infrastructure. Just too much development packed onto a very small island. 

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While I loved living in Long Beach, they were always having mismanagement issues that lead to tax increases. They have been having some big financial struggles since Sandy. The locals aren’t happy that they are planning a very large ocean front condo and apartment complex. They are worried about more tax increases and stress on the infrastructure. Just too much development packed onto a very small island. 

I agree. These days it seems like they will stick a new apartment building wherever they can. It's happening all over.

[Dark Star]

58 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

houses close to beaches need to be outlawed

Had a waterfront house in Bayville NJ (on the bay) lose 3 walls to Sandy.  County eventually bought it through a federal program to reduce houses along the waterfront and increase open space.  Unheard of in this day and age.