vegan_edible Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 GFS is signaling a +PNA after October 9th for the past 3 runs, nice to see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 29, 2023 Author Share Posted September 29, 2023 For now, staying in tropical (sub) for October posts, but first week of Oct looks interesting to me off the SE USA coast tracking northward ahead the next weekend cold front. No blatant signs but modeling does have low pressure strewing off the se coast USA and for me it's a worthy monitor for developing another significant rain event here Friday the 6th-Sunday the 8th...at least LI/CT. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 29, 2023 Author Share Posted September 29, 2023 However, I continue interested in what will evolve off the se USA coast. next week. And, right now, one strong trough is forecast to evolve over the ne USA by the end of next weekend. It could easily draw at 6-18 hour swath 1.7" PW up here and depending on low pressure location provide more 1"+ rainfall. Definitely different than the whatever amounts out there (multiple 6+?). I've got to run but will be looking for CP 1 day top 10, with at least 5.7 for the calendar day as to be rerouted at 445P, and the 24 18z-18z will be at least 5.7. XMACIS says that's a top 10 daily at CP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 8 hours ago, wdrag said: For now, staying in tropical (sub) for October posts, but first week of Oct looks interesting to me off the SE USA coast tracking northward ahead the next weekend cold front. No blatant signs but modeling does have low pressure strewing off the se coast USA and for me it's a worthy monitor for developing another significant rain event here Friday the 6th-Sunday the 8th...at least LI/CT. No…please no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 25 minutes ago, jm1220 said: No…please no. how does it only rain on the weekend here??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 say +PNA without saying +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 33 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: how does it only rain on the weekend here??? Weekend rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Sun (10/1) starts feeling like we are in a warm pattern/ridging and out of the coold/rainy "oasis". Still some NNE flow through the week but very warm air all around against averages. 80s for the warm spots (park may stay 5 - 8 degrees below other sites with the growth). Peak warmth Wed - Thu (10/4). Trough into the GL/MW by the end of the week with front approaching Sat (10/6). Cooler period 10/ 8 - 10/11 looks like frost in the mountains/NW section as currently projected. Ridge into the NW pushes east by mud month and warmer one the other end of the middle 10/16 or so. We'll see how dry the 10/1 - 10/15 period can remain - tendency is for hung up fronts and it wants to rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 I wonder if this event turned some of the snow lovers Off for heavy snow this season. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Frost and freeze chances next weekend after the mild weather 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 6 hours ago, Jacob brooklyn said: I wonder if this event turned some of the snow lovers Off for heavy snow this season. Oh my sweet summer child. Nothing stops snow lovers from rooting for snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 27 minutes ago, Nibor said: Oh my sweet summer child. Nothing stops snow lovers from rooting for snow. Well I am too a snow lover sooo. Just curious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 September ended at 69.4[+0.2] The first 8 days of October are averaging 69degs.(62/76) or +7. Reached 68 here yesterday at 4pm. Today: 74-77, wind n., few clouds, 64 tomorrow AM. 60*(94%RH) here at 7am. 63* at 9am. 66* at 10am. 70* at Noon. 73* at 2pm. 75* at 3pm. Reached 79* at 5pm-6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Happy October 1 My birthday is in 10 days 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Expected blue skies today, smoke? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Nice rising PNA to cool us off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Unbelievable. After several days of miserable skies and weather, as soon as the clouds clear, the smoke is back! I can't believe it's October and there's fires still raging in Quebec, arguably they never really got extinguished. Was hoping for a nice day with blue skies but that will have to wait You can't make this stuff up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 60 / 60 and last of the thin clouds moving ESE with bright sunshine in the next hour for most. Dry / warm stretch and its needed deep trough into the west coast and ridge into theast. Flow NNW today - Tue (10/3) with warm hghs near 80 / low 80s. Warm spots could get mid 80s and cool/wetter spots (Central park) may be stuck in the low - mid70s. Mon-Tue and Fri (10/6) winds less onshore Wed / Thu highest 850 MB temps forecast with >16C but NNE flow. Trough digs into the GL/MW pushes east by Fri (10/6) and next weekend with next rain chances. Cooler 10/8 - 10/13 - frost or first freezes into the higher elevations and chilly 40s to the coast likely. On the other side of mid October - looks near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 52 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Expected blue skies today, smoke? Thins clouds moving through shortly. Check satellitet loop i posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Thins clouds moving through shortly. Check satellitet loop i posted. Those of us out on Long Island will be stuck in the smoke all day today and tomorrow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 85 (1986) NYC: 88 (1927) LGA: 87 (1950) Lows: EWR: 38 (1947) - The 40s featured very cool Sep/Oct many records lows NYC: 36 (1947) LGA: 39 (1947) Historical: 1752 - The second severe hurricane in two weeks hit the Carolinas. The Onslow County Courthouse was destroyed along with all its records, and Beacon Island disappeared. (David Ludlum) 1890: The weather service is first identified as a civilian agency when Congress, at the request of President Benjamin Harrison, passes an act transferring the Signal Service’s meteorological responsibilities to the newly-created U.S. Weather Bureau in the Department of Agriculture. 1893 - The second great hurricane of the 1893 season hit the Mississippi Delta Region drowning more than 1000 persons. (David Ludlum) 1893: On this day, the village of Caminadaville, Louisiana, was destroyed by a massive hurricane. Caminadaville was a vibrant fishing community in the late 19th century, located on Cheniere Caminada, adjacent to Grand Isle in coastal Jefferson Parish in Louisiana. It took five days for the news of this devastating hurricane to reach New Orleans. 1938: Grannis and Okay, Arkansas set an all-time high-temperature record for October for Arkansas with 105 degrees. 1977: While an F3 tornado traveled less than one-mile through Montfort Heights or the greater Cincinnati area, it destroyed 12 homes and damaged 15 others. There were 17 injuries. 1987 - A blast of cold arctic air hit the north central U.S. An afternoon thunderstorm slickened the streets of Duluth MN with hail and snow, and later in the afternoon, strong northerly winds reached 70 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific northwest. Afternoon highs of 90 degrees at Olympia WA, 92 degrees at Portland OR, and 89 degrees at Seattle WA, were records for the month of October. For Seattle WA it marked the twenty- first daily record high for the year, a record total in itself. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather across central Oklahoma and the eastern half of Texas. Thunderstorms in Texas produced softball size hail northwest of Nocona, and baseball size hail at Troy and Park Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. through the daytime and evening hours. Severe thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, with seven of those tornadoes in Georgia. A tornado southwest of Moultrie, GA, killed two persons and injured a dozen others. Tornadoes also injured one person north of Graceville, FL, and two persons at Bartow, GA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Just now, TWCCraig said: Those of us out on Long Island will be stuck in the smoke all day and tomorrow too Hadnt seen the smoke forecasts Been a while Cant have clouds might as well have smoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 The HRRR is one of the few models I know that takes into account the smoke in the column and the effect it has on surface warming. HRRR has us barely going above 70 today and tomorrow solely based on the smoke. Most forecasts have mid 70's for us on LI, I think we fall well short of that unfortunately. Struggling to make it out of the low 60's so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Absolutely gorgeous out in Mahwah, NJ. Crystal clear blue skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 1 hour ago, TWCCraig said: Unbelievable. After several days of miserable skies and weather, as soon as the clouds clear, the smoke is back! I can't believe it's October and there's fires still raging in Quebec, arguably they never really got extinguished. Was hoping for a nice day with blue skies but that will have to wait You can't make this stuff up! Some thing happened in June…rain and storms and then smoke, then back to rain… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 All the area golf courses are closed due to the rain. Absolutely horrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Thins clouds moving through shortly. Check satellitet loop i posted. Smoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Upton just revised forecast to include haze for today… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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