October 2023

[wdrag]

Added the CPC October outlook as prepared Thursday Sept 21.

 

[wdrag]

Started thread because of my concern for a higher impact sub tropical storm off the mid-Atlantic coast combining with tides 1/2-3/4 foot higher than what we saw for Ophelia this weekend of Sept 23rd-24th.  Would compound damage from Ophelia, especially beach erosion with constancy of northeast wind from Sept 22 through probably October 3rd. 

[Rtd208]

A good portion of the NYC metro area is pretty water logged with all the recent rain we have had. Something to consider going forward if we get more storms/heavy rainfall especially in the short and medium range.

[vegan_edible]

Got a few questions about this upcoming pattern. I'm digging this cooler weather now, but it looks we're heading into a +PNA for the first week of October, however it seems to keep getting pushed back. Who here can give me a good prospective temp outlook on how October will pan out. I'm dreaming of crisp high 50s and sunshine

[Rjay]

32 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

Got a few questions about this upcoming pattern. I'm digging this cooler weather now, but it looks we're heading into a +PNA for the first week of October, however it seems to keep getting pushed back. Who here can give me a good prospective temp outlook on how October will pan out. I'm dreaming of crisp high 50s and sunshine

Maybe something like this

 

[lee59]

I am hoping October is more like September, a prediction of above normal temperatures but ending up about normal or only slightly above.

[Rjay]

Just now, lee59 said:

I am hoping October is more like September, a prediction of above normal temperatures but ending up about normal or only slightly above.

Pretty wild how this all went down. 

[Rjay]

Stuck pattern but some changes by day 5 with a ridge building further south. 

[Rjay]

We likely warm up a lot.  Greatest departures would be to our north if the eps has the right idea.  

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Maybe something like this

 

That’s crisp(y) alright. 

[Rtd208]

44 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Maybe something like this

 

 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That’s crisp(y) alright. 

 

[MANDA]

Not exactly .......  weather with that depicted pattern.

[nycwinter]

i doubt that pattern will verify for the length of the warmth..

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i doubt that pattern will verify for the length of the warmth..

I wouldn't say that...heat tends to overperform these days...

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I wouldn't say that...heat tends to overperform these days...

We are going into October

[bluewave]

October is another rapidly warming month from the old days like September has been.

 

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. 

……….EWR…..ISP

Dec…+1.5….+1.5

Jan….+1.2…+1.3

Feb….+0.5….+0.5

 

Mar….+0.4….+0.6

Apr….+0.5…..+0.6

May...+0.6….+0.9

 

Jun….+0.3….+0.6

Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1

Aug...+0.6….+0.9

 

Sep….+1.0….+1.3

Oct…..+0.9..+1.4

Nov….+0.2..+0.5

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We are going into October

So it can't be above normal?

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

We are going into October

I'm talking about above normal anomolies not gross temps, but if the GFS is to believed it's a week of +15

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, JerseyWx said:

So it can't be above normal?

No 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'm talking about above normal anomolies not gross temps, but if the GFS is to believed it's a week of +15

Yeah it's insane. So much for that super Nino pattern. GFS looks like a raging Nina

[donsutherland1]

19 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah it's insane. So much for that super Nino pattern. GFS looks like a raging Nina

The concurrent marine heatwaves may be undercutting the ENSO influence.

[mcwx]

how about this click bait:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/one-of-the-most-intense-el-niños-ever-observed-could-be-forming/ar-AA1hiQYo

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

In the old pattern October would have been well above average. We didn't max very high in the Summer, and it seems like Fall is on track for normal to below. 18z GFS ensembles have a +PNA developing about October 9th and we would likely be below average around then or after. 

[SnoSki14]

Quite the reversal on the ensembles after the 8-9th now from a couple days ago.

All of these competing influences seem to be screwing with the models.

[EastonSN+]

On 9/26/2023 at 2:05 PM, Rjay said:

Stuck pattern but some changes by day 5 with a ridge building further south. 

Same general pattern as last winter.

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Same general pattern as last winter.

Hopefully we can get the crappy pattern over with now. 

[guinness77]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully we can get the crappy pattern over with now. 

I go back to work on Monday so it’ll end Sunday night. Terrible week to be off and next week’s forecast is a slap in the face. 

[SACRUS]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Quite the reversal on the ensembles after the 8-9th now from a couple days ago.

All of these competing influences seem to be screwing with the models.

Watch for a return to a overall wetter pattern by the 9th as trough comes east and front are hung up on EC as atlantic ridge remaind anchores east of bermuda.

[Allsnow]

Eps joined the consensus with a cooler week after Columbus Day. The first week will be mild and dry 

[winterwx21]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Eps joined the consensus with a cooler week after Columbus Day. The first week will be mild and dry 

That's going to be a much-needed drying out period after friday's big rain event. Looks like high temps mid-upper 70s for our area sunday through most of next week. Maybe close to 80 a couple of the days early week. Looking forward to next week.