Autumn 2023 Banter Hangout

[weatherbo]

3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

While we're at it, let's add a happy little palm tree to bo's yard to help him prepare for the oncoming onslaught of climate change.

(Sorry, but you're dealing with a retired guy who obviously has too much time on his hands.)

Placement is perfect 

[hardypalmguy]

For Michsnowfreak and other deniers on our warmer and wetter climate that is happening fast in last 20 years. Stop seeing the extra snow which is only happening because we have good temp padding (to start) in a warmer and wetter climate. Once we reach that tipping point of liquid to frozen predominance we will quickly crash in yearly snowfall totals in the future.

MKE avg high in January is already tickling 32. That means December and February already average way into the 30s for highs. Those months will be the first to see snow averages crash.

https://fox11online.com/weather/weather-stories/warmer-wetter-winters-a-preview-to-patrick-powells-2023-winter-weather-forecast-national-oceanic-atmospheric-administration-arctic-green-bay-jet-stream?fbclid=IwAR0Cyuq69rWJu1DC-J9IEn5W54buYmw_DsCKH5fDEt6VDR3JHuZPFvc_aVo_aem_ASQvL06fjJVw8wd3pqVUVS7SxyweszA_ShuMkeQoVH-4oQ82q3hLsd2SzJp4_wJeFvI

[Stebo]

Usage of the word tickling in weather is so ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[roardog]

11 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

For Michsnowfreak and other deniers on our warmer and wetter climate that is happening fast in last 20 years. Stop seeing the extra snow which is only happening because we have good temp padding (to start) in a warmer and wetter climate. Once we reach that tipping point of liquid to frozen predominance we will quickly crash in yearly snowfall totals in the future.

MKE avg high in January is already tickling 32. That means December and February already average way into the 30s for highs. Those months will be the first to see snow averages crash.

https://fox11online.com/weather/weather-stories/warmer-wetter-winters-a-preview-to-patrick-powells-2023-winter-weather-forecast-national-oceanic-atmospheric-administration-arctic-green-bay-jet-stream?fbclid=IwAR0Cyuq69rWJu1DC-J9IEn5W54buYmw_DsCKH5fDEt6VDR3JHuZPFvc_aVo_aem_ASQvL06fjJVw8wd3pqVUVS7SxyweszA_ShuMkeQoVH-4oQ82q3hLsd2SzJp4_wJeFvI

I can’t speak for Michsnowfreak but I’m pretty sure the only thing he denies is your greatly exaggerated and ridiculous claims that have no support while he backs up everything he says with actual data. 

[hardypalmguy]

I can’t speak for Michsnowfreak but I’m pretty sure the only thing he denies is your greatly exaggerated and ridiculous claims that have no support while he backs up everything he says with actual data. 

He says we aren’t warming. We are. I’ve posted data. He’s in denial.

[roardog]

1 minute ago, hardypalmguy said:

He says we aren’t warming. We are. I’ve posted data. He’s in denial.

I’ve never seen him say we aren’t warming. The problem is that you greatly exaggerate the warming as a way to troll as that is obviously your main goal here.

[hardypalmguy]

I’ve never seen him say we aren’t warming. The problem is that you greatly exaggerate the warming as a way to troll as that is obviously your main goal here.

Others here agree with me…

[Stebo]

12 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Others here agree with me…

No one here agrees with the magnitude of what you are spewing nor do they agree with your dumb trolling constantly, even if you are right that we are warming.

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

He says we aren’t warming. We are. I’ve posted data. He’s in denial.

LMAO. When have I said that? And when have you posted data? The only one in denial is you. I post actual data all the time. You never share anything other than a rogue article here and there because you know if you actually posted data/stats, it would show the actual amount of warming going on rather than your outrageous troll posts. You have no grasp of the difference between weather and climate. Your schtick and trolling would have you banned in ANY other subforum. You make outrageous, unrealistic claims of climate warming, then when someone calls the idiocy out, that means they dont believe in climate change. . Really, what it all boils down to is this. The cold winter climate that you live in can warm 1, 2, or 3 degrees....it doesnt matter. Other than noise level changes, you still will have winter. And will be FAR away from the tropical climate that you desire.

 

Detroit winters in the 2010s were 1.2F warmer than the 150-year avg. The 2000s winters were 0.7F warmer than the 150-year avg. And the 1990s winters (remember the 1990s, when the leaves fell 6 weeks earlier than they do now?) were 2.2F warmer than the 150-year avg. Detroit winters of the 2010s were COLDER than those of the 1930s, 1950s, or 1990s.

 

I realize that you think that once the average high tickles 32F, all your snow will turn to rain . Again, no concept of how weather works. Stick to spray painting your grass green. You ALMOST were able to convince people last winter that warm weather made your winter grass so green, until @Chicago Storm had a screenshot of you admitting you paint it.

 

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, roardog said:

I can’t speak for Michsnowfreak but I’m pretty sure the only thing he denies is your greatly exaggerated and ridiculous claims that have no support while he backs up everything he says with actual data. 

10000% 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stebo said:

No one here agrees with the magnitude of what you are spewing nor do they agree with your dumb trolling constantly, even if you are right that we are warming.

Amen. And he is not "right" about anything. No one is arguing about CC, its about his ridiculous posts. Its trolling, we all know its trolling, but its over the top.

Its like....John Doe wins $10,000 in the lottery. But John tells everyone he won $1,000,000. Jane Doe calls out the BS by saying, "John, you won, but you did not win anywhere near a million". So John whines and blasts Jane for accusing him of winning NO money at all. 

If youre on a weather board and actually add no discussion regarding the weather, you should be banned.

 

[Stebo]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

LMAO. When have I said that? And when have you posted data? The only one in denial is you. I post actual data all the time. You never share anything other than a rogue article here and there because you know if you actually posted data/stats, it would show the actual amount of warming going on rather than your outrageous troll posts. You have no grasp of the difference between weather and climate. Your schtick and trolling would have you banned in ANY other subforum. You make outrageous, unrealistic claims of climate warming, then when someone calls the idiocy out, that means they dont believe in climate change. . Really, what it all boils down to is this. The cold winter climate that you live in can warm 1, 2, or 3 degrees....it doesnt matter. Other than noise level changes, you still will have winter. And will be FAR away from the tropical climate that you desire.

 

Detroit winters in the 2010s were 1.2F warmer than the 150-year avg. The 2000s winters were 0.7F warmer than the 150-year avg. And the 1990s winters (remember the 1990s, when the leaves fell 6 weeks earlier than they do now?) were 2.2F warmer than the 150-year avg. Detroit winters of the 2010s were COLDER than those of the 1930s, 1950s, or 1990s.

 

I realize that you think that once the average high tickles 32F, all your snow will turn to rain . Again, no concept of how weather works. Stick to spray painting your grass green. You ALMOST were able to convince people last winter that warm weather made your winter grass so green, until @Chicago Storm had a screenshot of you admitting you paint it.

 

To be fair, other locations have been warmer than Detroit, we shouldn't base this argument on just one location.

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

To be fair, other locations have been warmer than Detroit, we shouldn't base this argument on just one location.

Oh I know. But I live in DTW, so I use DTW stats bc thats what matters to me. I dont care whats going on elsewhere, just as he uses MKE. If you look at multiple stations, its clear that winter warming is far greater in the northeast than the midwest. Some midwest stations havent shown any warming, and some northern plains have actually cooled, while some of the northeast have warmed 4-5F. But this is NOT about that. Its about his trolling and complete BS. 

Im here to discuss weather, not cower in a corner if i dont stoke cromarties ego "if you dont admit that we will warm 30F in 30 years and have palm trees, you dont believe in climate change".

[Chinook]

some types of oak leaves I never saw in Colorado, plus some others

 

[TheClimateChanger]

48 years to the day since the infamous wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, popularized by the Gordon Lightfoot (R.I.P.) ballad. Much calmer today over the Great Lakes.

[michsnowfreak]

12 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

48 years to the day since the infamous wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald, popularized by the Gordon Lightfoot (R.I.P.) ballad. Much calmer today over the Great Lakes.

The Edmund Fitzgerald museum in Paradise, MI is a fascinating experience.

 

Winds gusted from 60-90mph in northern MI with 20 foot waves on Lake Superior. In Southern MI winds gusted 40-70mph.

 

At Detroit, the first 10 days of November 1975 were record smashing warm. To this day it stands as the warmest first 10 days of November by an impressive 3.0°. This storm brought much cooler temps (60s on the 10th, 50s 11th, 40s 12th) but no snow in SE MI.

[mississaugasnow]

22 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh I know. But I live in DTW, so I use DTW stats bc thats what matters to me. I dont care whats going on elsewhere, just as he uses MKE. If you look at multiple stations, its clear that winter warming is far greater in the northeast than the midwest. Some midwest stations havent shown any warming, and some northern plains have actually cooled, while some of the northeast have warmed 4-5F. But this is NOT about that. Its about his trolling and complete BS. 

Im here to discuss weather, not cower in a corner if i dont stoke cromarties ego "if you dont admit that we will warm 30F in 30 years and have palm trees, you dont believe in climate change".

Interesting, that's probably why Ive noticed the warming a bit more compared to you. Toronto-Buffalo-Ottawa are in no mans land between North East and Midwest.

Though I was also going to respond to his post about snowfall falling off a cliff haha. Even 4F warmer which would be the high end like you mentioned still only brings me from 29F to 33F in the dead of winter. It will still snow and we will still have winter storms lol

[michsnowfreak]

45 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Interesting, that's probably why Ive noticed the warming a bit more compared to you. Toronto-Buffalo-Ottawa are in no mans land between North East and Midwest.

Though I was also going to respond to his post about snowfall falling off a cliff haha. Even 4F warmer which would be the high end like you mentioned still only brings me from 29F to 33F in the dead of winter. It will still snow and we will still have winter storms lol

Weather stat guys like myself are so fortunate to have a wonderful website like Xmacis. On top of knowing Detroit's climate in and out, whenever I want to randomly run numbers for other cities I just have to go to xmacis. One day I was randomly just looking at regression lines for winter temperatures and it was absolutely clear that northeast winter temperatures have risen noticeably since records began while the Midwest was much, much more of a subtle rise and a few stations in the midwest and moreso in the northern plains have actually cooled. Subzero days today are far greater in SE Michigan than they were in the 1930s-50s, and far less than the 1970s-80s. The difference from mid 20th century to late 20th century was crazy.

The bottom line is if you're north of I-80 and you are just worried about snow, precip patterns and storm tracks will always be more important than temperature departures. Hell, last winter we had multiple snowstorms that caused damage, had blinding snow, and it was our 8th warmest winter on record. It is those of us who like the snow cover and enjoy the deep cold air who always want a colder winter.

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The Edmund Fitzgerald museum in Paradise, MI is a fascinating experience.

 

Winds gusted from 60-90mph in northern MI with 20 foot waves on Lake Superior. In Southern MI winds gusted 40-70mph.

 

At Detroit, the first 10 days of November 1975 were record smashing warm. To this day it stands as the warmest first 10 days of November by an impressive 3.0°. This storm brought much cooler temps (60s on the 10th, 50s 11th, 40s 12th) but no snow in SE MI.

And gun deer opener in NMI was a sunny and balmy affair. Felt more like October's bow season (which hadn't been born yet). 75-76 went on to be the first in a string of historic winters for both cold and snow in the Lower Lakes region. Especially known as a banner LES winter. But even places like my home region (KFNT) had their (then) snowiest January for instance. Only beat since by 2014. To note, that warm November of '75 did feature a cold bout around Thanksgiving and featured some snow systems that ended up making it a very snowy month in the end. A month of extreme contrasts, at least in my home region. 

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Weather stat guys like myself are so fortunate to have a wonderful website like Xmacis. On top of knowing Detroit's climate in and out, whenever I want to randomly run numbers for other cities I just have to go to xmacis. One day I was randomly just looking at regression lines for winter temperatures and it was absolutely clear that northeast winter temperatures have risen noticeably since records began while the Midwest was much, much more of a subtle rise and a few stations in the midwest and moreso in the northern plains have actually cooled. Subzero days today are far greater in SE Michigan than they were in the 1930s-50s, and far less than the 1970s-80s. The difference from mid 20th century to late 20th century was crazy.

The bottom line is if you're north of I-80 and you are just worried about snow, precip patterns and storm tracks will always be more important than temperature departures. Hell, last winter we had multiple snowstorms that caused damage, had blinding snow, and it was our 8th warmest winter on record. It is those of us who like the snow cover and enjoy the deep cold air who always want a colder winter.

I'm there. My recent string of bad winters has been brutal in this regard. Ofc, my preference is not just a few inches OTG, but substantial amounts. The quick to come, quick to go EC scenario might be fun when it happens but getting basically nada in between (over multiple seasons even) would be downright awful. 

[weatherbo]

New chicks arrived this morning.  Will spend 16 weeks here in the barn, then can join the others in the coop near the end of March when they're fully feathered 

They're 3 days old.

[Chinook]

Unusually snowy weather hammered Anchorage. A strong low pressure hit the area from the south last week, and more snowy weather occurred after that low. As it says in the article, Anchorage reported 2.5 ft of snow last week. The CoCoRAHS plot  says 41.1" in 8 days in SE Anchorage city.

 

[bowtie`]

November 17, 2013 Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak

 

 

Can still see the absence of large trees on the southeast side of town here in Lebanon.

[Chinook]

I am going to post this here because I don't know if the East Coasters are even discussing this.

Look at this crazy weather pattern off the coast in a few days.  There will be a possible hurricane or tropical storm moving into Haiti and moving northeastward. Currently there is subtropical jet based  disturbance in the south. The low hangs around near Mobile Alabama, but weakens. Then the 500mb trough redevelops a low near Miami. This will ride northwards with the mild air and heavy rain and thunderstorms offshore. It goes to Cape Cod and New Brunswick. The cold air will phase into the system in Quebec for perhaps a heavy snow storm.

[WestMichigan]

15 hours ago, Chinook said:

Unusually snowy weather hammered Anchorage. A strong low pressure hit the area from the south last week, and more snowy weather occurred after that low. As it says in the article, Anchorage reported 2.5 ft of snow last week. The CoCoRAHS plot  says 41.1" in 8 days in SE Anchorage city.

 

I saw Thompson pass had 65" in 24 hours.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 11/9/2023 at 9:09 PM, hardypalmguy said:

Others here agree with me…

It's certainly been an excellent year for palm growing in the MKE area.

Looking at average mean temperatures through November 13, this year is in third place, just 0.2F below 2021 & 2012 in first place.

By mean minimum temperature, it has been the second warmest on record and just 0.2F below the record set in 1921.

By contrast, we can see the mean minimum temperature over the same interval in 1875 was more than 12F colder than this year (and only a couple degrees above freezing):

Looking at the coldest years, we can find several where the mean average temperature was lower than the mean minimum temperature this year:

One thing that always strikes me when looking at this data... we can see it's warmed about 12 degrees from 1875 to 2023, yet they are always claiming its warmed 1 or 2 degrees. The math just isn't mathing for me. You have to do a whole lot of smoothing and poor fitting of data to come to that conclusion.

 

[hardypalmguy]

It's certainly been an excellent year for palm growing in the MKE area.
Looking at average mean temperatures through November 13, this year is in third place, just 0.2F below 2021 & 2012 in first place.

By mean minimum temperature, it has been the second warmest on record and just 0.2F below the record set in 1921.

By contrast, we can see the mean minimum temperature over the same interval in 1875 was more than 12F colder than this year (and only a couple degrees above freezing):

Looking at the coldest years, we can find several where the mean average temperature was lower than the mean minimum temperature this year:

One thing that always strikes me when looking at this data... we can see it's warmed about 12 degrees from 1875 to 2023, yet they are always claiming its warmed 1 or 2 degrees. The math just isn't mathing for me. You have to do a whole lot of smoothing and poor fitting of data to come to that conclusion.
 

Yes. So much this. And the warming from the 1980s has been impressive as well.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One thing that always strikes me when looking at this data... we can see it's warmed about 12 degrees from 1875 to 2023, yet they are always claiming its warmed 1 or 2 degrees. The math just isn't mathing for me. You have to do a whole lot of smoothing and poor fitting of data to come to that conclusion.

Lmao. Math must not be your strong suit. I know you guys like to start data sets with the coldest numbers on record as the mean, but thats not how averages work. 

By your math, Milwaukees climate warmed an incredible 9° from 1875 to 1878. 

When someone says that a given location has warmed 1-2° its an average, not just starting from the coldest datapoint in the entire record.

[Chambana]

WAD fall. We just traveled for our first Christmas present for the kids, an Aussie doodle puppy. Everyone meet biscuit 

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lmao. Math must not be your strong suit. I know you guys like to start data sets with the coldest numbers on record as the mean, but thats not how averages work. 

By your math, Milwaukees climate warmed an incredible 9° from 1875 to 1878. 

When someone says that a given location has warmed 1-2° its an average, not just starting from the coldest datapoint in the entire record.

The current Administration and UN says he's right.  lol