Autumn 2023 Banter Hangout

[A-L-E-K]

free hardypalmguy

[Stebo]

and what opposing views anyways? I love all weather dumb ass.

[Stebo]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

free hardypalmguy

Always campaigning for the worst people

[hardypalmguy]

25 minutes ago, Stebo said:

No Cromartie, it isn't about opposing views, you are a troll who doesn't care and this place banned you a few times before because of that. You are lucky I can't do it myself or you'd been gone already.

Sounds like you have some anger and personal things to work through man.  I'm just here to discuss my viewpoints on the weather.  Hope you can get that figured out and feel better.

[Stebo]

4 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Sounds like you have some anger and personal things to work through man.  I'm just here to discuss my viewpoints on the weather.  Hope you can get that figured out and feel better.

Nah im fine, you however should find a new hobby besides being a main character to a place that is rapidly growing tired of you

[hardypalmguy]

3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Nah im fine, you however should find a new hobby besides being a main character to a place that is rapidly growing tired of you

If you're fine, you gotta chill a bit and accept different viewpoints.  Like I said, I'm just here to discuss the weather.  It sounds like you prefer echo chamber forums, which isn't healthy discussion.

[Stebo]

6 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

If you're fine, you gotta chill a bit and accept different viewpoints.  Like I said, I'm just here to discuss the weather.  It sounds like you prefer echo chamber forums, which isn't healthy discussion.

It's not a different view point. You have no point you just say warm without any single bit of discussion. We have AI that can do a better more interesting job than you. And you have been banned before because of your tedious garbage.

[hardypalmguy]

Just now, Stebo said:

It's not a different view point. You have no point you just say warm without any single bit of discussion. We have AI that can do a better more interesting job than you. And you have been banned before because of your tedious garbage.

Plenty of support showing warm into distant future.  Look at CFS, CPC, NAEFS, OP Models, Ensembles, etc.

[hardypalmguy]

Also been here over 8 years man.  If you're digging back decades, you have demons in the closet that need counseling.

[Stebo]

7 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Also been here over 8 years man.  If you're digging back decades, you have demons in the closet that need counseling.

And? Now your protector in this subforum is also banned and did a shitty job moderating too. This winter we aren't going through post after post of your stupid empty nonsense.

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Plenty of support showing warm into distant future.  Look at CFS, CPC, NAEFS, OP Models, Ensembles, etc.

Where did I say it wasn't going to be warm? Idc what others are saying you immediately went to different opinion with me when I didn't even present one. And with all of those models you'd think you'd post some maps. But nah you just say it's going to be warm just to piss people off. What actually will happen is irrelevant to that point.

[mississaugasnow]

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's so hard to pin a percentage on it. Definitely not near peak but pretty much everywhere you look, you see some color, not like just the isolated few trees here and there. Maybe 20%? Last year was an early peak, and the year before was a late peak. A friend of mine who has a lot of trees, said his are 1.5 weeks ahead of normal.

 

Pics from Sept 23-26

Wow, definitely ahead of us. The only real change here is the yellows. Just outside the city though the change is happening fast. Algonquin is at peak and most areas outside Toronto (especially north and east) are 30-40% 

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

Wow, definitely ahead of us. The only real change here is the yellows. Just outside the city though the change is happening fast. Algonquin is at peak and most areas outside Toronto (especially north and east) are 30-40% 

Yeah I am quite surprised how much the color has changed in the last week here, we did have a few cool nights but I think more so has to do with how dry it has been recently. Trees are burning through their fuel right now.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Yeah I am quite surprised how much the color has changed in the last week here, we did have a few cool nights but I think more so has to do with how dry it has been recently. Trees are burning through their fuel right now.

I don’t have any evidence to back this up but I feel like the temperature in August plays a role. We had a cool August this year and I was seeing more color than usual already at the end of August. I remember in 2017 after the cool August, we had quite a bit of early color showing up until the 90F temperatures in the second half of September seemed to slow it down. 

[Stebo]

16 minutes ago, roardog said:

I don’t have any evidence to back this up but I feel like the temperature in August plays a role. We had a cool August this year and I was seeing more color than usual already at the end of August. I remember in 2017 after the cool August, we had quite a bit of early color showing up until the 90F temperatures in the second half of September seemed to slow it down. 

Cooler nights in Aug definitely help, I noticed when I went up north mid Aug to Lake County there was already a splash of color there.

[hardypalmguy]

Super torch coming. Maybe warmest start to October ever for some?

[Stebo]

Not even close, 2007 was in the 90s

 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Definitely on board with a warm spell into the foreseeable future. Way less bite to the heat this time of year. When a cold front shakes things up for a few days or the pattern changes in mid/late October going BN means flakes. 

[nwohweather]

8 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

If you're fine, you gotta chill a bit and accept different viewpoints.  Like I said, I'm just here to discuss the weather.  It sounds like you prefer echo chamber forums, which isn't healthy discussion.

I got you and anybody from the tropical oasis that is Saukville

[hardypalmguy]

9 hours ago, Stebo said:

Not even close, 2007 was in the 90s

 

mke never had 90s in october.

[Cary67]

Hoping warm weather would hold through Columbus Day weekend but recent runs showing first real cold push of the fall season. Will be in Door County and hoping for decent temps for golf and hiking.

[luckyweather]

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Hoping warm weather would hold through Columbus Day weekend but recent runs showing first real cold push of the fall season. Will be in Door County and hoping for decent temps for golf and hiking.

Looking like we could see a dip or two of lows in the 30s the holiday weekend but also looks like maybe just for 3-5 days and then back to average/above average. Way longer term I was kind of getting worried the climate train wreck would manifest in Siberia torching or something this fall. Not the greatest start but the Siberian snowpack did start building about two weeks ago so a total train wreck northern hemisphere year without a winter disaster scenario looks to be off the table. 

[hardypalmguy]

11 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

Looking like we could see a dip or two of lows in the 30s the holiday weekend but also looks like maybe just for 3-5 days and then back to average/above average. Way longer term I was kind of getting worried the climate train wreck would manifest in Siberia torching or something this fall. Not the greatest start but the Siberian snowpack did start building about two weeks ago so a total train wreck northern hemisphere year without a winter disaster scenario looks to be off the table. 

This El Nino is going to split the jet stream keeping the polar jet north of Lake Superior nearly all of winter.  What's going on in Siberia and northern Canada isn't going to be much relevant because of that.

[Stebo]

8 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

This El Nino is going to split the jet stream keeping the polar jet north of Lake Superior nearly all of winter.  What's going on in Siberia and northern Canada isn't going to be much relevant because of that.

That is not certain especially if we remain in a strong -PDO. I know many outlooks show that but they are binary El Nino outlooks with literally nothing else added. Low value output to be presented by the media.

[luckyweather]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

This El Nino is going to split the jet stream keeping the polar jet north of Lake Superior nearly all of winter.  What's going on in Siberia and northern Canada isn't going to be much relevant because of that.

This is like mostly a swag but I’m kind of prepared for a low snow winter, probably a few soul crushing (for a winter lover) cool / cold rainers, and the chance of a handful of heavy wet marginal thermals thundersnow featuring big dogs with a scary close rain/snow line when we tap some probably fleeting cold. At my and your latitude any sustained snow cover probably not gonna happen as we’ll probably see a ridiculous warmup or three or four / bike riding weather. Probably a bone dry 30-45 day stretch from Christmas to mid Feb. I’ve set my expectations, anything worse than that though and I’ll probably need to find a therapist. 
 

edit: also a better pattern will show up around 3/20 and it’ll stay cool til May 15. You’ll highlight all the misery all winter and troll the hell out of me and then I’ll get some penance as I watch you squirm when winter shows up in spring. 

[hardypalmguy]

15 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

This is like mostly a swag but I’m kind of prepared for a low snow winter, probably a few soul crushing (for a winter lover) cool / cold rainers, and the chance of a handful of heavy wet marginal thermals thundersnow featuring big dogs with a scary close rain/snow line when we tap some probably fleeting cold. At my and your latitude any sustained snow cover probably not gonna happen as we’ll probably see a ridiculous warmup or three or four / bike riding weather. Probably a bone dry 30-45 day stretch from Christmas to mid Feb. I’ve set my expectations, anything worse than that though and I’ll probably need to find a therapist. 

Probably more rain for me than you with bathwater temps on Lake Michigan to my east.

[A-L-E-K]

hard to beat

[hardypalmguy]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

hard to beat

Didn't know you relocated to San Diego

[TheClimateChanger]

With only a couple days left in the month, it appears almost certain that many areas in the Midwestern United States will see one of the warmest absolute minimum temperatures ever recorded in the month of September in 2023. The lack of any early season cold is a blessing farmers and sensitive plants (including hardy palm trees).

Minneapolis, Minnesota

Chicago, Illinois

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Des Moines, Iowa

Grand Forks, North Dakota

Marquette, Michigan

[TheClimateChanger]

Grand Forks has dropped as low as 36F this month, which, should it hold, ties for third warmest monthly minimum behind the 40F lows observed in September 2021 & 2019. However, in 1893, the low temperature was as cold as 11F on the 27th, and 14F on the 26th, just to give an idea of how cold it can be this time of the year in the upper Midwest and northern Plains. Many a hardy palm tree would have perished in the September 1893 cold snap, I would think.

Interestingly, quite a few historic Septembers in Grand Forks had mean monthly minima roughly the same, or colder than, the absolute coldest September low temperatures in several recent years.