Autumn 2023 Banter Hangout

[bowtie`]

2 hours ago, Chambana said:

WAD fall. We just traveled for our first Christmas present for the kids, an Aussie doodle puppy. Everyone meet biscuit 

Hi Bisquit. Welcome to the Midwest.

[hardypalmguy]

New USDA zone maps came out and I've been upgraded to zone 6a, and I see zone 7a emerging on the SW shore of Lake Michigan in SW Michigan.  Windmill palms are rated down to zone 7.  It's coming quicker than we think.  @TheClimateChanger

[Lightning]

54 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

New USDA zone maps came out and I've been upgraded to zone 6a, and I see zone 7a emerging on the SW shore of Lake Michigan in SW Michigan.  Windmill palms are rated down to zone 7.  It's coming quicker than we think.  @TheClimateChanger

USDA site says NOPE:

[hardypalmguy]

31 minutes ago, Lightning said:

USDA site says NOPE:

 

Forget to zoom?

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

New USDA zone maps came out and I've been upgraded to zone 6a, and I see zone 7a emerging on the SW shore of Lake Michigan in SW Michigan.  Windmill palms are rated down to zone 7.  It's coming quicker than we think.  @TheClimateChanger

Fascinating. When I brought up plant hardiness zone changes recently, I had no idea USDA was publishing a new update today. I took a look and it has some areas of 7A now in western Pennsylvania along the Ohio River, with a more substantial area extending into southern Ohio. If you compare that to the 2012 map, there were only a few isolated areas of 7A in the lower elevations of southern West Virginia and eastern Kentucky. The solid 7A zone was way down in central and southern Tennessee, so that is a remarkable northward shift over a decade. Would expect it to continue marching northward into northern Ohio by the early 2030s, and probably extending along the lakeshore even further north.

I think in the 1990 map, the boundary of Zone 7 was in northern Alabama, perhaps far southern Tennessee. So in just 30 years, we have seen Zone 7's northern terminus shift from northern Alabama into south central Ohio.

[hardypalmguy]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Fascinating. When I brought up plant hardiness zone changes recently, I had no idea USDA was publishing a new update today. I took a look and it has some areas of 7A now in western Pennsylvania along the Ohio River, with a more substantial area extending into southern Ohio. If you compare that to the 2012 map, there were only a few isolated areas of 7A in the lower elevations of southern West Virginia and eastern Kentucky. The solid 7A zone was way down in central and southern Tennessee, so that is a remarkable northward shift over a decade. Would expect it to continue marching northward into northern Ohio by the early 2030s, and probably extending along the lakeshore even further north.

I think in the 1990 map, the boundary of Zone 7 was in northern Alabama, perhaps far southern Tennessee. So in just 30 years, we have seen Zone 7's northern terminus shift from northern Alabama into south central Ohio.

That strip in SW MI/NW IN could be 8a in 10 years.

[Lightning]

19 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Forget to zoom?

 

  whatever dude.  That zoom in is ridiculous and you know it.  SW MI is not the same as St. Louis and Cincinnati zone.   

[hardypalmguy]

  whatever dude.  That zoom in is ridiculous and you know it.  SW MI is not the same as St. Louis and Cincinnati zone.   

The truth is in your face and you can’t accept it. That’s what’s ridiculous.

[TheClimateChanger]

12 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

The truth is in your face and you can’t accept it. That’s what’s ridiculous.

The funny thing is these are conservative, because they are based on past winters. The climate is not static, it's warming. Therefore, their predictive power is lessened moving forward. If you want a better approximation of what the next decade will look like, you can probably add another half zone across the board.

[RogueWaves]

56 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Forget to zoom?

So, its milder right at water's edge - shocking! I used to live there, just 1 block off the beach. Even if that avg has creeped up, what does this mean in reality? I could now put a sensitive plant or palm out and about every 3-4 winters it will fail to survive the inevitable arctic cold wave. What's the point in that? Really?

[hardypalmguy]

It’s designated zone 7a for a reason. There are criteria that need to be met. Even Florida has seen below zero weather in the past.

You guys are grasping at straws to not accept the new reality coming.

[RogueWaves]

33 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

It’s designated zone 7a for a reason. There are criteria that need to be met. Even Florida has seen below zero weather in the past.

You guys are grasping at straws to not accept the new reality coming.

What? That I can enjoy more boat-n-beach days, and fewer sled-n-ski days? Did I miss something? What's the scary reality in that? Summers of 13/14/15 were horrible. Could hardly find a decent day to enjoy our wonderful GL's. I fail to see any "wow factor" in the drum you continually beat. And I'm a gardener at heart, so I appreciate your hobby and how much effort you put into that awesome tropical look. I just see a lot of wishful thinking that FL climo is suddenly going to pounce on yby without a sudden shift of the poles - that's actually a much scarier prospect tbh. Now back to looking at the impending cold December on tap..  

[hardypalmguy]

What? That I can enjoy more boat-n-beach days, and fewer sled-n-ski days? Did I miss something? What's the scary reality in that? Summers of 13/14/15 were horrible. Could hardly find a decent day to enjoy our wonderful GL's. I fail to see any "wow factor" in the drum you continually beat. And I'm a gardener at heart, so I appreciate your hobby and how much effort you put into that awesome tropical look. I just see a lot of wishful thinking that FL climo is suddenly going to pounce on yby without a sudden shift of the poles - that's actually a much scarier prospect tbh. Now back to looking at the impending cold December on tap..  

Outside a modest cooldown next two weeks, the warmth looks to come surging right back.

[michsnowfreak]

17 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

What? That I can enjoy more boat-n-beach days, and fewer sled-n-ski days? Did I miss something? What's the scary reality in that? Summers of 13/14/15 were horrible. Could hardly find a decent day to enjoy our wonderful GL's. I fail to see any "wow factor" in the drum you continually beat. And I'm a gardener at heart, so I appreciate your hobby and how much effort you put into that awesome tropical look. I just see a lot of wishful thinking that FL climo is suddenly going to pounce on yby without a sudden shift of the poles - that's actually a much scarier prospect tbh. Now back to looking at the impending cold December on tap..  

You have to keep in mind he is not a weather enthusiast or even a climate change enthusiast. He is here for nothing more than constant trolling, since he knows the lakes forum does not have mods who would ban him as they would in any other subforum. There's about one poster who takes any of his outrageous posts seriously.

[hardypalmguy]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You have to keep in mind he is not a weather enthusiast or even a climate change enthusiast. He is here for nothing more than constant trolling, since he knows the lakes forum does not have mods who would ban him as they would in any other subforum. There's about one poster who takes any of his outrageous posts seriously.

I've posted nothing but backed up facts regarding the USDA zone changes and how the long range models look.  You're rhetoric is because you want an echo chamber of groupthink.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The funny thing is these are conservative, because they are based on past winters. The climate is not static, it's warming. Therefore, their predictive power is lessened moving forward. If you want a better approximation of what the next decade will look like, you can probably add another half zone across the board.

You do realize that zones are based on the average lowest temperature right? Even if even in a climate where the average annual temperature has risen, that does not necessarily mean that the hottest and coldest temperatures each year will fluctuate much. In just 2019, the Midwest had temps in the -20s and -30s. Various cold records were also set in 2013-15, 2017-18. The 2010s in Detroit had a colder average annual min temp than many previous decades, despite a warmer overall mean temp.

[Malacka11]

I just don't understand how none of you get tired of this conversation. Even if you are shitposting god damn dude

[SchaumburgStormer]

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

I've posted nothing but backed up facts regarding the USDA zone changes and how the long range models look.  You're rhetoric is because you want an echo chamber of groupthink.

Lmao. You almost never post facts of any kind. I would grind you into the ground in any real debate discussing facts and not just picking the warmest model run you can find. And you want to talk rhetoric lol? You people have a handbook you follow:

1) start datasets in 1970 and/or whatever makes the starting point the coldest possible

2) call anyone who does not agree with your outrageous predictions a denier. Don't believe the climate will warm 30° in 30 years? You are a denier

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I just don't understand how none of you get tired of this conversation. Even if you are shitposting god damn dude

I had him on ignore, but then other people would respond to his jokes and it was too tempting to not join in. Anwx needs a block button, especially since it's ok to have no mods

[Malacka11]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I had him on ignore, but then other people would respond to his jokes and it was too tempting to not join in. Anwx needs a block button, especially since it's ok to have no mods

The silver lining in it all is that at least your posts are interesting and educational to balance things out 

[Stebo]

Nothing Trollmartie says is important enough to acknowledge.

[hardypalmguy]

10 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Nothing Trollmartie says is important enough to acknowledge.

Yeah, zone 7 appearing in Michigan for first time ever is a nothingburger. 

[RogueWaves]

2 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Yeah, zone 7 appearing in Michigan for first time ever is a nothingburger. 

Medieval warm period says "hold my palm tree"

[Stebo]

11 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Yeah, zone 7 appearing in Michigan for first time ever is a nothingburger. 

When I start seeing palms planted I'll let you know, and I don't mean yours either

[Lightning]

16 minutes ago, Stebo said:

When I start seeing palms planted I'll let you know, and I don't mean yours either

Palms that don't need man's intervention to survive multiple MI winters. Agreed!!

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Medieval warm period says "hold my palm tree"

Let's take one thing at a time. Snow typically falls in Michigan 8 out of the 12 months in any given year. Only JJAS are immune. I'll keep our conifers thank you.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Lightning said:

Palms that don't need man's intervention to survive multiple MI winters. Agreed!!

Quite a few trees that are certainly growable here in michigan died after the winter of 2013-14. In fact, retired met bill deedler talked about seeing tons of dead trees and dead animals in the woods behind his house in spring 2014. Detroit also had 3 separate winters in the past decade where temperatures registered −13 or colder. 4 winters going back to 2009. To put that in perspective, Detroit did not register -13 from 1935 until 1963. Like I said, a climate that has warmed in overall mean temperature does not mean anything for the seasonal extremes that we see in our type of climate.

[RogueWaves]

28 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Let's take one thing at a time. Snow typically falls in Michigan 8 out of the 12 months in any given year. Only JJAS are immune. I'll keep our conifers thank you.

For sure. He said it was "first time in history" when he would've been more correct to say in our brief recorded history of the weather/climo. Quite certain the period I mention had much warmer temps during that era when Europeans were able to colonize Iceland for a few hundred years before the climate pendulum swung back the other way and headed into the little ice age.

[rainsucks]

7 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Outside a modest cooldown next two weeks, the warmth looks to come surging right back.

yeah, I’m def seeing zero evidence whatsoever for a cold Dec. GEFS looked quite toasty, especially come second week of Dec