Autumn 2023 Banter Hangout

[hardypalmguy]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

With only a couple days left in the month, it appears almost certain that many areas in the Midwestern United States will see one of the warmest absolute minimum temperatures ever recorded in the month of September in 2023. The lack of any early season cold is a blessing farmers and sensitive plants (including hardy palm trees).

Minneapolis, Minnesota

Chicago, Illinois

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Des Moines, Iowa

Grand Forks, North Dakota

Marquette, Michigan

And we will begin October with one of the warmest on records as well.  If people aren't having a "lightbulb" moment about what's going on, I don't know how to help them.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

30 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

And we will begin October with one of the warmest on records as well.  If people aren't having a "lightbulb" moment about what's going on, I don't know how to help them.

It’s the old analogy of the frog in the pot of water slowly boiling that does nothing but toss the frog into the boiling water and it jumps right out. We are way past the point of no return. 

[Chicago Storm]

hi.

[Malacka11]

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

hi.

Hi

[A-L-E-K]

31 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

hi.

U seen my point, p chill

Ready for big totals this winter?

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

And we will begin October with one of the warmest on records as well.  If people aren't having a "lightbulb" moment about what's going on, I don't know how to help them.

2007 was hot. 07-08 is a top 5 winter for pretty much everyone in this subforum beside Ohio and they had one of their best storms ever. So no.

[luckyweather]

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

hi.

Been missing your longer range thoughts recently. Come back to us. 

[CheeselandSkies]

5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

hi.

 

[Baum]

last 80 degrees of the year incoming?

[A-L-E-K]

no

[WestMichigan]

For entertainment only.  No way this is happening.  Looks like we might be in for a long winter of enduring the GFS teasing long range snowstorms.

[hardypalmguy]

2007 was hot. 07-08 is a top 5 winter for pretty much everyone in this subforum beside Ohio and they had one of their best storms ever. So no.

Sept 2023 will set record for 53 as the coldest it got all month in MKE. Every other September has had a colder night than that. 2019 was #2 and 2021 was #3 on that list as well. Which is clearly forming a pattern of rapid warming.

[Stebo]

35 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Sept 2023 will set record for 53 as the coldest it got all month in MKE. Every other September has had a colder night than that. 2019 was #2 and 2021 was #3 on that list as well. Which is clearly forming a pattern of rapid warming.

Which I am not denying at all. I know that nearly every record in this region especially in summer has been set in the last 20 years, you aren't telling me knowledge I don't already know. All I am saying is even with that heat it doesn't predicate what can happen in Winter.

[hawkeye_wx]

JFK airport in NYC got more rain this morning than Cedar Rapids has received since mid May.

[michsnowfreak]

On 9/27/2023 at 6:27 PM, Stebo said:

Cooler nights in Aug definitely help, I noticed when I went up north mid Aug to Lake County there was already a splash of color there.

It was the coolest August since 2004. Could have played a role. Fortunately the coming warm spell has shortened and muted from the GFS original nonsense.

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It was the coolest August since 2004. Could have played a role. Fortunately the coming warm spell has shortened and muted from the GFS original nonsense.

I'd been fine if it was longer, temps near 80 this time of year are great.

[Lightning]

18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

JFK airport in NYC got more rain this morning than Cedar Rapids has received since mid May.

NYC/JFK Airport  8.58 in   0351 PM  09/29

Thought I would add a little context 

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, Stebo said:

Which I am not denying at all. I know that nearly every record in this region especially in summer has been set in the last 20 years, you aren't telling me knowledge I don't already know. All I am saying is even with that heat it doesn't predicate what can happen in Winter.

Summer min temps have risen moreso than max. We have yet to ever see some of the torrid daytime heat we saw from the 1930s-50s in my lifetime. I wonder if the humidity was lower at the time.

And yes, summer or fall temps (warm or cold) have no bearing on winter.

[michsnowfreak]

On 9/28/2023 at 2:25 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

With only a couple days left in the month, it appears almost certain that many areas in the Midwestern United States will see one of the warmest absolute minimum temperatures ever recorded in the month of September in 2023. The lack of any early season cold is a blessing farmers and sensitive plants (including hardy palm trees).

Minneapolis, Minnesota

Chicago, Illinois

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Des Moines, Iowa

Grand Forks, North Dakota

Marquette, Michigan

See, now, to a stat guy like me that's an interesting and relevant stat for those areas. But when I posted that in 2023 Detroit had its lowest annual maximum temperature in 108 years, you said I was "making it out to be more than it was". So if lowest annual maximum temperature in over 100 years isnt noteworthy, I don't see how highest September min temp is 

[Chinook]

I was thinking of posting a loop of 250mb analysis, North America view. I am saving them just to study the jet stream over the El Nino winter. It's kind of because I almost always look at the 500mb map for the USA but ignore what's happening at 250mb in the Pacific. Does anybody want me to post a 14-day loop of this?

[Lightning]

2 hours ago, Chinook said:

I was thinking of posting a loop of 250mb analysis, North America view. I am saving them just to study the jet stream over the El Nino winter. It's kind of because I almost always look at the 500mb map for the USA but ignore what's happening at 250mb in the Pacific. Does anybody want me to post a 14-day loop of this?

Sounds very intriguing.  Please post 

[SolidIcewx]

Going from the UP of Michigan to Columbus Ohio in 24 hours is quite the shock to the system for the start of the work week for me. High of 88 down here today with some humidity. If I did not know any better I’d say it was late august  here. Thankfully back to the Detroit area for work finally starting next week. Got some good pictures from up across the Big Mac but file sizes too large to post until I figure something out.

[KokomoWX]

Indy NWS shared some news stories of the doppler radar installation.  
 

 

[Chicago Storm]

On 9/28/2023 at 3:57 PM, A-L-E-K said:

U seen my point, p chill

Ready for big totals this winter?

solid stretch we've been in for sure.

we'll see how things go with that latter part.

[Chicago Storm]

On 9/28/2023 at 7:12 PM, luckyweather said:

Been missing your longer range thoughts recently. Come back to us. 

i'll be back more eventually.

have had a lot going on the past 6 months or so.

[hardypalmguy]

Yikes.

 

[hardypalmguy]

Warming falls are definitely happening.

[Lightning]

14 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Warming falls are definitely happening.

Just to clarify, I am not disagreeing with falls warming.  It is just interesting to see 40s being a measurement being we are nearly the same latitude.  MBY we have had 40s or below every month this year (Note: July 31st was coolest 52F in Flint while MBY was 49F (my area is normally cooler than Flint by 2-4F)). 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Lightning said:

Just to clarify, I am not disagreeing with falls warming.  It is just interesting to see 40s being a measurement being we are nearly the same latitude.  MBY we have had 40s or below every month this year (Note: July 31st was coolest 52F in Flint while MBY was 49F (my area is normally cooler than Flint by 2-4F)). 

40s are kind of an odd metric because technically they are possible at any time of the year. While unlikely in the summer at the heat island stations, they are fairly expected in rural areas. At Detroit the last 40s were June 13th & the first 40s September 14th this year, although when DTW hit 50 in August, most of the area was in the 40s.

 

The current average first Fall freeze at Detroit, October 23rd, is 1 day later than the long-term average of October 22nd.

[hardypalmguy]

Just to clarify, I am not disagreeing with falls warming.  It is just interesting to see 40s being a measurement being we are nearly the same latitude.  MBY we have had 40s or below every month this year (Note: July 31st was coolest 52F in Flint while MBY was 49F (my area is normally cooler than Flint by 2-4F)). 

If you live in a cold swamp you’ll get 40s every month due to inversions. I see it on my way to work all summer. Temp crashes in swamps. Not representative of the entire area.