Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: Kitty Hawk Pier Cam | Kitty Hawk Pier House Weddings and Events (pierhouseevents.com) Kitty Hawk NC Cam Those are some insane waves! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Recon still in progress in it - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 LWIR of it... juicy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Some updated WPC maps - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Heading down to Wildwood for the car show and Irish weekend tomorrow morning. Should be a good time. lol. I'll report anything significant. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 43 minutes ago, BBasile said: Heading down to Wildwood for the car show and Irish weekend tomorrow morning. Should be a good time. lol. I'll report anything significant. Tropical storm weekend too it's a triple whammy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 60F/DP 52F Precip really coming in off the ocean. Gotta think next update Ophelia is a Cat 1 sitting over warm waters... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 60F/DP 52F Precip really coming in off the ocean. Gotta think next update Ophelia is a Cat 1 sitting over warm waters... I am not so sure the 46-51 dewpoints up here would have a say in that for sure as the dry air is streaming down from the NE on the east side of the center of Ophelia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 8pm update and still deepening a bit but slowing down and still @70 mph - Quote 000 WTNT31 KNHC 222348 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...OPHELIA PRODUCING WINDS JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE... ...WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 76.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 76.6 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a slight turn toward the north and north-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after landfall through the rest of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 70 mph (113 km/h) during the past couple of hours. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading northward through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area early Saturday. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall: Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3 to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday morning. Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches tonight through Sunday. Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3 inches Saturday into Monday. This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas of heavier rainfall. SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight through Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Thats a lot of dry air on the eastern flank of the storm I bet this keeps things in check in other words 70 mph. I doubt this gets to hurricane before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Winds picking up here in Media just had a gust to 35 mph out of the NE pressure gradient kicking in from the High and Ophelia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Thats a lot of dry air on the eastern flank of the storm I bet this keeps things in check in other words 70 mph. I doubt this gets to hurricane before landfall. Mid- and lower-level...(Water Vapor). Yup. My dp is currently 55 (temp 62). Wasn't getting the typical "tropical feel" from it - at least yet. I guess as it moves further north, some of that might start mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 23 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I am not so sure the 46-51 dewpoints up here would have a say in that for sure as the dry air is streaming down from the NE on the east side of the center of Ophelia Thought about that (lower DPs) but we only need a 5mph nudge to be a Cat 1...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Mid- and lower-level... Yup. My dp is currently 55 (temp 62). Wasn't getting the typical "tropical feel" from it - at least yet. I guess as it moves further north, some of that might start mixing in. That honestly has a mid-latitude low look which for our area in regard to wind is a bad thing because this thing is about to expand out and the pressure gradient is about to take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Mid- and lower-level...(Water Vapor). Yup. My dp is currently 55 (temp 62). Wasn't getting the typical "tropical feel" from it - at least yet. I guess as it moves further north, some of that might start mixing in. Looking for a couplet. Looks like a big version of this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 0z NAM juices up our Ophelia rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 11pm update...still TS/70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: 11pm update...still TS/70mph. Yup. Just refreshed it. Quote 000 WTNT31 KNHC 230241 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...OPHELIA'S CENTER FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY SATURDAY... ...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 76.8W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 76.8 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will reach the coast of North Carolina early Saturday, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after landfall through the rest of the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become extratropical by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (83 km/h) and a gust to 71 mph (115 km/h). An observation at Poquoson River Light in Virginia reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the warning area and will continue spreading northward through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area early Saturday. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall: Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3 to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday morning. Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches tonight through Sunday. Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3 inches Saturday into Monday. This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas of heavier rainfall. SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 They shifted the track southeast again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 WPC flash flood/excessive rain - targeted as marginal in the southern part of the CWA for day 1, and a mix of marginal and slight for days 2 & 3. Cou;d be for some antecedent dryness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 39 minutes ago, RedSky said: 0z NAM juices up our Ophelia rains Gotta be convergence also the frontogenesis forcing from the SSE and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Surf City Fishing Pier - Surfchex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 Steady as she goes at the 2 am update - Quote 646 WTNT31 KNHC 230547 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 ...CENTER OF OPHELIA JUST OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 77.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 77.1 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will reach the coast of North Carolina early this morning, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula today and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after landfall through the rest of the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become extratropical by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h). NOAA saildrone 1045 located 70 miles (115 km) north-northeast of the center recorded a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb based on dropsonde data from Air Force Hurricane Hunters. (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the warning area and will continue spreading northward today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area early this morning. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall: Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3 to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday morning. Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches through Sunday. Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3 inches through Monday. This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas of heavier rainfall. SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 Finally starting to get some measurable here, with a first bucket tip for 0.01". Had expected to have woken up with it already accumulating but that was not to be. Currently damp and 58 with dp 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 Ophelia continues to deepen and slow. Winds still holding at 70 mph. Heard some guy on KYW earlier this morning saying "Oh it's just a tropical storm". And my first reaction was - "Yeah, a HIGH END one". We're talking 70 mph sustained winds with who knows how high the gusts might be. Track ticked back to the east. Quote 015 WTNT31 KNHC 230849 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 ...OPHELIA CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE COAST AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 76.9W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 76.9 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will reach the coast of North Carolina within the next couple of hours, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula the rest of today and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after landfall through the rest of the weekend, and Ophelia is likely to become an extratropical cyclone tonight or Sunday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41037 at Wrightsville Beach Offshore recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 83 mph (134 km/h). A sustained wind of 43 mph (68 km/h) and a gust of 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported near Morehead City, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches) based on aircraft reconnaissance data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the coast of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia within the warning area and will continue spreading northward today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area early this morning. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall: Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia…3 to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches into Sunday morning. Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic…2 to 4 inches tonight through Sunday. Across southern New York through southern New England…1 to 3 inches Saturday into Monday. This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas of heavier rainfall. SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 WPC rainfall forecast for the morning package, still on track for a general 1" - 6" rainfall across the CWA (with more to the S/E, particularly along the coast, and less to the N/W). CWA is in a general marginal to slight risk for flash flooding (although local conditions may depend on where bands set up given the storm has slowed and has a blocking high to the north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 Looks like some kind of landfall happened to the SW of Morehead City by Emerald Isle, sometime around 6:15 am give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 And NHC confirmed landfall @ 6:15 am. Quote 000 WTNT61 KNHC 231020 TCUAT1 Tropical Storm Ophelia Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 620 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 ...OPHELIA MAKES LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA... Doppler Radar images, Air Force Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations indicate that Ophelia made landfall near Emerald Isle in North Carolina around 615 am EDT (1015 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 70 mph (110 km/h). An observation in Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 73 mph (117 km/h). SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 77.0W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi/Papin/Delgado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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