Hurricane Agnes Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 It's been a long time since tracking "an event" (winter or any other season) so might as well do that since the CWA is in the cross-hairs. Quote 193 WTNT31 KNHC 212056 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 75.9W ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Duck, North Carolina, to Chincoteague Virginia, including Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point, and for the Neuse River, the Pamlico River, and portions of Pamlico Sound. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward in Chesapeake Bay to North Beach, and into the Tidal Potomac to Cobb Island. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point * Neuse River, Pamlico River, and portions of Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear NC to Fenwick Island DE * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City NC to Duck NC * Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point * Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach * Albemarle and the remainder of Pamlico Sound A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 75.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast by late Friday, and that motion should continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the warning area Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm while it approaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and spread northward Friday night and Saturday. RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late Friday into Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning Friday night through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 8 pm cone and discussion - Quote 000 WTNT31 KNHC 212350 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 75.6W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck North Carolina * Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point * Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 75.6 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast by late Friday, and that motion should continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to approach the coast of North Carolina within the warning area Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm while it approaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy and ship observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT!.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City NC, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and spread northward Friday night and Saturday. RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia Friday into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late Friday into Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning Friday night through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 As of the 5 am update 9/22/23 - Quote 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220831 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 75.0W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck North Carolina * Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point * Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 75.0 West. The system is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwest to north motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina through tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in North Carolina later this morning, and spread northward into Saturday. RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late today into Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Still on the fence about whether it will be a full fledged tropical storm or subtropical storm but in any case, it has intensified so will need to continue to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 8 am update - Quote 000 WTNT31 KNHC 221152 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 75.3W ABOUT 250 MI...465 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 245 MI...450 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck North Carolina * Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point * Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The system is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north to north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations from NOAA buoy 41002 is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in North Carolina later this morning, and spread northward through Saturday. RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches, across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from late today into Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through Saturday for portions of the Mid-Atlantic Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Not used to seeing this path right up the Delmarva instead of just off shore. My beach cottage is in the Upper Chesapeake area. I think it will be OK with 1-3 ft. Keep an eye on the Elk River for me. It's a pretty wide beach, I've seen water come up on it, but not a lot. The cottage is built up on concrete footers so should the water make it up to the 1st row of places, it will go under and not in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Front door to river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Can feel the dews creeping up this morning. But with the center of the storm expected to pass to the SE of the immediate Philly burbs, I think we'll stay out of any real soup. 65F/DP 57F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 33 minutes ago, Lady Di said: Not used to seeing this path right up the Delmarva instead of just off shore. My beach cottage is in the Upper Chesapeake area. I think it will be OK with 1-3 ft. Keep an eye on the Elk River for me. It's a pretty wide beach, I've seen water come up on it, but not a lot. The cottage is built up on concrete footers so should the water make it up to the 1st row of places, it will go under and not in. Best of luck! Hopefully you stay high & dry! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 45 minutes ago, Lady Di said: Not used to seeing this path right up the Delmarva instead of just off shore. My beach cottage is in the Upper Chesapeake area. I think it will be OK with 1-3 ft. Keep an eye on the Elk River for me. It's a pretty wide beach, I've seen water come up on it, but not a lot. The cottage is built up on concrete footers so should the water make it up to the 1st row of places, it will go under and not in. 41 minutes ago, Lady Di said: Front door to river. The track is going to make a big difference as well as whether it really does get cut off as being hinted at, and stalls for a bit. If a band sets up over the area, there could be some pretty significant flooding. Fortunately we are almost 1/2 way between a new and full moon so any normally higher tides won't be there to make it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Latest cone @11 am looks like it took a western jog - Quote 332 WTNT31 KNHC 221451 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND ALBEMARLE SOUND... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 75.6W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning for Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, North Carolina, the Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach, and portions of the western Albemarle Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 75.6 West. The system is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north to north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust of 51 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are reaching portions of the North Carolina coast within the warning area and will spread northward through Saturday. RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia from today into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from later today into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 12z GFS is running now and after the 6z kept the scraping, the 12z ticked west with the rest. The Euro had caved to move further to the west too but not as far as the 12z 12k (and 3k) NAM the furthest west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 12z GFS is running now and after the 6z kept the scraping, the 12z ticked west with the rest. The Euro had caved to move further to the west too but not as far as the 12z 12k (and 3k) NAM the furthest west. As you can see the system is rather lopsided to all of the worst weather to the Northeast of the Center and North this likely will not change so any area to the North and Northeast of the center will have the worst conditions. The track at this point is north and most likely will remain north until the system puts on the breaks and stalls out in southern PA which could be pretty bad from a flooding stand point. The rain associated with the system will continue north and northeastward. The track at this point is not all that important except for right along the coast and to the Northeast of the center. I am not 100% sure this attains purely tropical characteristics it looks more like subtropical system that will transition to a mid lattidude low pretty quickly once it gets north of say the VA NC line. I am thinking 1.75-3.75" pretty much with winds gusting to 40 mph at times SE pa. Winds gusting to 60-65 at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Not buying the 50% drying trend with the 12z runs, nope. Expectations still set for 2-2.5" 20% chance of 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 hours ago, JTA66 said: Can feel the dews creeping up this morning. But with the center of the storm expected to pass to the SE of the immediate Philly burbs, I think we'll stay out of any real soup. 65F/DP 57F No doubt, I can feel it. Not horrible but from 50F or so this morning to approaching 60F now (58F). Lawn looks a little straggly, having a talk w/myself to mow it before the rains move in or wait till afterwards.... 70F/DP 58F/ Sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 NAM looks like front end thump to dry slot to snizzle. 69F/DP 56F 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 VA, KAKQ radar, stuff coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Was just out and the winds are whipping and thar she blows! Quote 000 WTNT31 KNHC 221751 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 76.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 76.0 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a slight turn toward the north. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before landfall along the coast of North Carolina. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (97 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 52 mph (83 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...3-5 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...3-5 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading northward through Saturday. RAINFALL: Ophelia is forecast to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 7 inches across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia from today into Saturday. Across remaining portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are forecast from later today into Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible beginning tonight through Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 49 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: VA, KAKQ radar, stuff coming up... When I saw the stuff down there I was wondering if you noticed it! It's definitely breezy out. Was tying up a couple of my potted tropical plants (I have a top heavy plumeria that definitely needed it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: When I saw the stuff down there I was wondering if you noticed it! It's definitely breezy out. Was tying up a couple of my potted tropical plants (I have a top heavy plumeria that definitely needed it). Breeze has picked up. Should be gusty/windy tomorrow...wonder what the high will be? 71F/ DP 55F Poor little guy, damn trashcans and wind....I laughed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Breeze has picked up. Should be gusty/windy tomorrow...wonder what the high will be? 71F/ DP 55F Poor little guy, damn trashcans and wind....I laughed though. OMG. Those cans usually have latches on the front for the lid but that is a huge can too. Am wondering about the Phils tonight because even if the rain doesn't start until later, the winds are going to do a number on where any hit balls end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Wow. Ophelia hit that bathwater and exploded from 50 mph to 70 mph. Might not have time to become a hurricane before landfall but didn't expect that! Quote 202 WTNT31 KNHC 222058 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 76.3W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch from Bogue Inlet to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina, has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City, North Carolina to Bogue Inlet, North Carolina * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City, North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 76.3 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so, followed by a slight turn toward the north and north-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina tonight, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before landfall along the coast of North Carolina. Weakening is expected after landfall through the rest of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Neuse and Bay Rivers...4-6 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...4-6 ft Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach...2-4 ft Surf City, NC to Chincoteague, VA...2-4 ft Albemarle Sound...2-4 ft South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Chincoteague, VA to Manasquan Inlet, NJ...1-3 ft Upper Chesapeake Bay...1-3 ft Delaware Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the North Carolina coast within the warning area and will continue spreading northward through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area early Saturday. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following rainfall: Across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia...3 to 5 inches with isolated higher totals around 7 inches into Sunday morning. Across the remaining portions of the Mid Atlantic...2 to 4 inches tonight through Sunday. Across southern New York through southern New England...1 to 3 inches Saturday into Monday. This rainfall may produce locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas of heavier rainfall. SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight through Saturday for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Wow. Ophelia hit that bathwater and exploded from 50 mph to 70 mph. Might not have time to become a hurricane before landfall but didn't expect that! They also have the track further north into PA before the east turn and it goes over this region, should boost rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: They also have the track further north into PA before the east turn and it goes over this region, should boost rainfall. I was watching the satellite loops and saw the eye start filling in with convection so it seemed to be juicing up. It's one thing having a 50 mph thing landfall and a 70 mph one. Didn't expect that kind of almost-RI. It's just a few mph short of a hurricane but I don't think it has enough room to do that before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I was watching the satellite loops and saw the eye start filling in with convection so it seemed to be juicing up. It's one thing having a 50 mph thing landfall and a 70 mph one. Didn't expect that kind of almost-RI. It's just a few mph short of a hurricane but I don't think it has enough room to do that before landfall. She gone be a cane 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: She gone be a cane I know it has to be tearing up the Carolina coast and SC already had issues with flooding (especially Charleston) just the past week or so, let alone with Idalia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 The above from drop #3 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Looking at that satellite looks like Ophellia is going to spend a bit more time over the water definitley moving more North than towards the coast NW now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 29 minutes ago, RedSky said: She gone be a cane Sitting right on the Gulf Stream now 81-84 water temps under the hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 27 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I know it has to be tearing up the Carolina coast and SC already had issues with flooding (especially Charleston) just the past week or so, let alone with Idalia. Kitty Hawk Pier Cam | Kitty Hawk Pier House Weddings and Events (pierhouseevents.com) Kitty Hawk NC Cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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