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Tropical Storm Ophelia


Rjay
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5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

It was very light at Menlo early.. I was able to do most of my walk outside. By 10 am it was raining steady and that wind, while not gale force here, has got to be horrendous offshore.

The surf is gigantic, being in a boat would be hell, if not straight up dangerous

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11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

It was very light at Menlo early.. I was able to do most of my walk outside. By 10 am it was raining steady and that wind, while not gale force here, has got to be horrendous offshore.

Glad you got your walk in before the heavy stuff. Great weekend for football 

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32 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The surf is gigantic, being in a boat would be hell, if not straight up dangerous

10-15” off the coast of LI and NJ, 15-19” down by VA. Nasty stuff. The LI sound only 3-5” with 35knot winds. 
 

the boating season came to an abrupt end after Labor Day 

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55 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Are you going to post the 12z GFS? 

Sure, very similar for round one, which is a massive bust and the main debate for the past few days.  The heavy band well ahead of the storm did not happen.  Not sure why no one can acknowledge this, those who tossed the heavy rain from round one (today) from the city NE were correct.

image.thumb.png.58570d5d89042f04514913ec53189e5d.png
NAM radar from round one

image.thumb.png.4f4279475b639c82a01e434714038290.png

reality is widely scattered showers, there is no convection whatsoever

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10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Sure, very similar for round one, which is a massive bust and the main debate for the past few days.  The heavy band well ahead of the storm did not happen.  Not sure why no one can acknowledge this, those who tossed the heavy rain from round one (today) from the city NE were correct.

image.thumb.png.58570d5d89042f04514913ec53189e5d.png
NAM radar from round one

image.thumb.png.4f4279475b639c82a01e434714038290.png

reality is widely scattered showers, there is no convection whatsoever

May want to Google what widely scattered means 

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23 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Sure, very similar for round one, which is a massive bust and the main debate for the past few days.  The heavy band well ahead of the storm did not happen.  Not sure why no one can acknowledge this, those who tossed the heavy rain from round one (today) from the city NE were correct.

image.thumb.png.58570d5d89042f04514913ec53189e5d.png

And most models have shown for 2 days now that the most significant impacts will be from the remnant low on Sunday and Sunday night except for the GFS (until 12z) which you continued to hug. 

 

GFS 6z.png

gfs_apcpn_us_8.png

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21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Sure, very similar for round one, which is a massive bust and the main debate for the past few days.  The heavy band well ahead of the storm did not happen.  Not sure why no one can acknowledge this, those who tossed the heavy rain from round one (today) from the city NE were correct.

image.thumb.png.58570d5d89042f04514913ec53189e5d.png
NAM radar from round one

image.thumb.png.4f4279475b639c82a01e434714038290.png

reality is widely scattered showers, there is no convection whatsoever

that gfs map is already too low in most of nj/nyc and there are 18 hours to go lol

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