winterwx21 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 3km NAM not nearly as intense with the rain tomorrow morning. This run only gets a half inch up to our area after the 18z run had hit us hard with an inch and a half. But the regular NAM beefed it up and gives us a little over an inch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 I think there's likely to be two rounds of rain with more steady stuff tomorrow and some convective potential with the remnants. Models are likely way too fast spinning this down. Sunday could easily overperform 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think there's likely to be two rounds of rain with more steady stuff tomorrow and some convective potential with the remnants. Models are likely way too fast spinning this down. I agree, I expect Saturday to be light stratiform and we'll beef our totals up with the incoming WAA Sat pm to Sunday. I really like Sunday , instability is SUPER meh but it does move in, with higher dews (lower to mid 60s) but we have the shear. I mean nj recorded a what, f3 last Feb? The dews were borderline upper 50s! Don't sleep on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: I agree, I expect Saturday to be light stratiform and we'll beef our totals up with the incoming WAA Sat pm to Sunday. I really like Sunday , instability is SUPER meh but it does move in, with higher dews (lower to mid 60s) but we have the shear. I mean nj recorded a what, f3 last Feb? The dews were borderline upper 50s! Don't sleep on this And that's what the 3km NAM shows now. It backed down on the heavy rain for tomorrow but gives us heavy rain on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Really putting the ‘spaghetti’ in ‘spaghetti plot.’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 All that dry air on the East side of the circulation makes me think it will dry out after the initial heavy rain tomorrow AM. Looks like most of the heavy stuff gets pushed into SNE. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 omg, the models that have been waffling around have waffled again 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: All that dry air on the East side of the circulation makes me think it will dry out after the initial heavy rain tomorrow AM. Looks like most of the heavy stuff gets pushed into SNE. We’ll see. it's always looked like a fronto round sat morning/afternoon followed by showery precip and then another round of steady heavy rain with the the remnant low 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's always looked like a fronto round sat morning/afternoon followed by showery precip and then another round of steady heavy rain with the the remnant low I agree, however the HRRR wants to send the heavy stuff to SNE tomorrow morning instead of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 RGEM gives us about a half inch tomorrow but very heavy rain on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: RGEM gives us about a half inch tomorrow but very heavy rain on sunday. Model output if you can? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Hrrr has rain moving into the area by 4am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Model output if you can? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Stick a forky in it. We’re not getting more than an inch. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 GFS still with under a half inch north of I-78 through Mon 9z. Comical how far apart these models are this close in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: And that's what the 3km NAM shows now. It backed down on the heavy rain for tomorrow but gives us heavy rain on Sunday. Tomorrow it may back down on the heavy rain for Sunday. I do think we'll get a burst of moderate to heavy rain this AM. There might be a break from late today into most of tonight. But it's possible to that it may not be a complete break but just diminish into light rain and drizzle. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: Hrrr has rain moving into the area by 4am Raining moderately by you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 first band in yonkers. moderate rain falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 57F here as of 5AM with light rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Just walked the dog,,,breezy but no rain falling In New City as of now / 5 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Sideways rain and monster chop in Zach’s bay for the Jones beach Ironman. The swim is still on as of now… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 As of 11z/23... GFS is short=LOW on qpf NJ/PA and modeling forward looks to me like any combo of other models and their ensembles will be more realistic in results than the 00z-06z/23 GFS-GEFS combo. That means for me... spotty 5" rainfall in NJ (and possibly LI portion) of the subforum by 18z/Monday the 25th. Minor flooding at the higher of the high tides this weekend. Max wind axis more or less where it is now...maybe drifting a bit north which favors 40-50 MPH gusts southern edge of the subforum -southern Ocean County. Canadian modeling tip: RGEM when it shows light precip...that often being drizzle; whereas HRRR does not tend to show drizzle but performs fairly well on axis of heavier qpf. Already measuring here in extreme nw NJ. Commenting on Sep 28-30 in that topic. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 13 hours ago, qg_omega said: Don’t expect much rain tomorrow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: GFS is junk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 6z RGEM and both NAMS are drenchers through Monday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Half an inch down by me already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 .20 so far.. mod rain Radar looks good for a soaking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keno19 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 0.05 inches what a joke. all the current radar images lost the yellow. lucky to get .50 inches out of this on long island. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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