Stormlover74 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Very breezy. Might need the heat this weekend If it's this windy already an advisory might be warranted for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 54 minutes ago, mob1 said: Verbatim, the GFS has a much more significant system the second time around. Some really strong winds and a ton of rain (it also coincides with the full moon). It's in fantasy range though, I can barely get it right 24 hours out. Almost sounds like a loop de loop track? Anybody dare take a poke at a path? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Euro with over a inch tomorrow for the metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Euro with over a inch tomorrow for the metro 2 inches for nyc by 7am Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 NHC has named the storm with 60mph winds... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 sun into mon might bust high if the models are too fast to spin down the system 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 I would take axis of max rainfall in above depiction and put it 50-100 miles N, W of its map location ... reason being, climatology suggests max rainfall from TS of moderate warm air availability often dump a lot of rain west of track. N NJ and e PA could see a lot more, LI possibly a bit less but I would stress more rain potential mostly, leaving coastal areas as is. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Windshear already coming into JFK this afternoon around 1pm with gusts to 25 kts from SE Tomorrow is going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 I have to work in Central Park tomorrow for a detail from 730 to 12am Sunday . All overtime. Should be fun in the rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3k nam for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 3k nam for tomorrow much stronger with the low on this run. dumpage coming 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 pwats get close to 2". so much dry air @winterwx21 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Granted this over 2-3 days but surprised no flood watches up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 The differences b/w the 12Z and 18z NAM are laughable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The differences b/w the 12Z and 18z NAM are laughable... I suppose there can be mistakes with input data, or is the data automatically uploaded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: If it's this windy already an advisory might be warranted for tomorrow Strong pressure gradient and storm is stronger than forecast. Should be a very windy Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 RGEM not impressed with tomorrow's round. Dries it up and mainly light rain during the day tomorrow with round 1. Not even a half inch for me. But whether we get just a half inch tomorrow or the wetter models end up being right and it's over an inch, I don't care. Either way it's a miserable saturday with outdoor plans ruined for everyone. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Now the GFS comes in with this. It's just impossible to get any kind of agreement and/or consistency from models anymore. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, mob1 said: Now the GFS comes in with this. It's just impossible to get any kind of agreement and/or consistency from models anymore. Which is why I wouldn't be overconfident about our area getting a ton of rain this weekend. It might happen or it might not. Look at all the events we had this summer. Some overperformed big-time and some were big busts. The models are wildly inconsistent. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: Which is why I wouldn't be overconfident about our area getting a ton of rain this weekend. It might happen or it might not. Look at all the events we had this summer. Some overperformed big-time and some were big busts. The models are wildly inconsistent. your 10 mile run is in trouble, sorry 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, forkyfork said: your 10 mile run is in trouble, sorry LOL I don't run on saturdays anyway. Boy you're in the mood to troll me these days, lol. The other day you got 21 weenies for the 2 posts you made where you said you were keeping track of my posts about humidity. 21 weenies. You might have set a record for weenies, lol. And I realize it's gonna be a rainy day tomorrow. But the models are all over the place on whether it will be just a light to moderate amount or much more significant. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Don’t expect much rain tomorrow 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Meanwhile Ophelia is close to a hurricane....maybe this is giving models fits-all the 18z runs except NAM cut way back for tomorrow... - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 24 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: LOL I don't run on saturdays anyway. Boy you're in the mood to troll me these days, lol. The other day you got 21 weenies for the 2 posts you made where you said you were keeping track of my posts about humidity. 21 weenies. You might have set a record for weenies, lol. And I realize it's gonna be a rainy day tomorrow. But the models are all over the place on whether it will be just a light to moderate amount or much more significant. Who knows. Sharp northern cutoff for sure-where is it though? I-84 or I-95? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 could go either way on tropical or subtropical idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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