mob1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: CMC finally jumps ship and is much drier....LOL Has the majority of the rain in round 2 (and lots of it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 CMC still 1-3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: That’s only out to 06z Sunday haha yeah but the initial batch is much weaker....it now delivers Sunday night and Monday which is a somewhat new development that some other models are showing now. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: At least it's not snow. The public won't even notice Yep. Most people would think we're nutty people here for spending time debating whether this will be a half inch or 2 inch rain event lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I would go closer to the 1 due to the dry air issue, but we shall see. Like Stormlover said it could go either way. what dry air issue? 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: yeah but the initial batch is much weaker....it now delivers Sunday night and Monday which is a somewhat new development that some other models are showing now. For sh!ts and giggles, look the entire ICON run. It has rain throughout the entire run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: what dry air issue? @jm1220 acting like the dry air will keep him from getting 2-3 inches of rain on Long Island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, mob1 said: For sh!ts and giggles, look the entire ICON run. It has rain throughout the entire run. I think the real question now is where does the decaying low end up stalling/pivoting before being shunted ESE and out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Breezy already here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @jm1220 acting like the dry air will keep him from getting 2-3 inches of rain on Long Island I don’t care if there’s 2-3” of rain here on LI. The weekend’s ruined regardless. I was pointing out what might happen because of the ridging and confluence over Canada. If we get soaked or not, great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @jm1220 acting like the dry air will keep him from getting 2-3 inches of rain on Long Island You can see on the models tomorrow's precip getting eaten up as it moves north by the confluence/dry air from the high pressure to the north as jm1220 has been talking about. We could be counting on sunday to get our bigger totals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I think the real question now is where does the decaying low end up stalling/pivoting before being shunted ESE and out to sea? GFS and CMC also have this meandering around all week but way further south than the ICON. With a stout blocking pattern, it would make sense that it'll hang around somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: You can see on the models tomorrow's precip getting eaten up as it moves north by the confluence/dry air from the high pressure to the north as jm1220 has been talking about. We could be counting on sunday to get our bigger totals. That won’t be a issue where you’re located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 It ultimately comes back for another round. Interesting evolution, it'll be fun to see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: So much for the upgrade Yeah that's an embarrassing shift for the CMC. It went from showing heavy rain coming in dramatically tomorrow morning to now just light rain. I think JM is gonna be on the money about the confluence eating up tomorrow's rain, but we shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That won’t be a issue where you’re located Who knows. Hard to predict what area will be near the cutoff as far as heavy rain vs light rain tomorrow. Stormlover is right when he says it could go either way for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, mob1 said: GFS and CMC also have this meandering around all week but way further south than the ICON. With a stout blocking pattern, it would make sense that it'll hang around somewhere. Alot of blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: Alot of blocking Verbatim, the GFS has a much more significant system the second time around. Some really strong winds and a ton of rain (it also coincides with the full moon). It's in fantasy range though, I can barely get it right 24 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Looks like our vacation spot (Sandbridge Isle, VA) is gonna take a nice hit. Hopefully not too much surge there, it floods there during a typical summer thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 next week looked great, starting to trend the other way now. Days of onshore flow, dont expect much rain at all tomorrow into this confluence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, qg_omega said: next week looked great, starting to trend the other way now. Days of onshore flow, dont expect much rain at all tomorrow into this confluence Where ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That won’t be a issue where you’re located The grand total, no matter which round brings what, seems to be 1-3" anyway like you've been saying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 hmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 confluence can enhance banding on the north sides of these systems btw 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 And most of that UKMET rain is sunday into sunday night. Struggles to get it north tomorrow like some of the other models. Ends up being an impressive event on some models despite not much tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 UKIE is all over the place... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: And most of that UKMET rain is sunday into sunday night. Struggles to get it north tomorrow like some of the other models. Ends up being an impressive event on some models despite not much tomorrow. that seems to be today's development weaker front end wave, stronger f/u precip and longer-now goes into Monday in many areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Either way it's 3 to 5 days of raw damp cool miserable weather. Quite breezy already too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Either way it's 3 to 5 days of raw damp cool miserable weather. Quite breezy already too Very breezy. Might need the heat this weekend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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