Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Rjay]

Models continue to show potential for heavy rains, strong winds and coastal flooding affecting our subforum this weekend.  I think a general 2-4" rainfall is likely.  Biggest questions are the exact track of the storm, timing of the event, wind potential and coastal flooding potential.  

[Stormlover74]

Nam round 1

[NJwx85]

[NJwx85]

[NJwx85]

We should be good for a widespread 1-2" on the first batch with potential for more and embedded tornado threat Saturday morning. 

If Sunday comes to fruition that's how we could see 4"+

[mob1]

RGEM has a nice region-wide soaking 

 

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, mob1 said:

RGEM has a nice region-wide soaking 

12z but 18z is similar 

[mob1]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

12z but 18z is similar 

Thanks for pointing it out. I corrected it. 

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs continues to focus on Sunday as the main show

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs continues to focus on Sunday as the main show

Wouldn't shock me. On Sat, the storm will be pushing north into a lot of dry air/confluence due to a high building north of the area and northerly flow coming from Canada, so the initial push of heavy rain might dry up once at a certain latitude. Sat might be waves of heavy rain getting eaten up in the dry air. The low coming closest to the area on Sunday would mean more of a chance of heavy rain, but the confluence doesn't really go away and the low gets forced east off the NJ coast. GFS actually has a reinforcing wave of confluence coming south in Canada on Sunday.

I can definitely see a sharp cutoff between 2"+ and little rain because of the dry air/confluence and the low being forced east. Models are starting to key in on maybe I-84 or a little north from there for the cutoff. Regardless of the heavy rain it'll be a nasty weekend with 30+ mph winds which the pressure gradient makes worse. 

[CIK62]

While Orphelia may be in our vocabulary for just days-----the first week of October on the GFS which was to start in the 80's-----is now starting in the 60's with multiple chances of another TS.      Rainfall exceeds 8" over the next 16 days!      

BN Octobers may mean an AN winter, I think, say 60%.

[TriPol]

51 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

While Orphelia may be in our vocabulary for just days-----the first week of October on the GFS which was to start in the 80's-----is now starting in the 60's with multiple chances of another TS.      Rainfall exceeds 8" over the next 16 days!      

BN Octobers may mean an AN winter, I think, say 60%.

We've had AN Octobers for years without any snow. I need snow. Give me snow! I'm addicted to that white powdery substance in a way I can't describe! Oh wait..

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Wouldn't shock me. On Sat, the storm will be pushing north into a lot of dry air/confluence due to a high building north of the area and northerly flow coming from Canada, so the initial push of heavy rain might dry up once at a certain latitude. Sat might be waves of heavy rain getting eaten up in the dry air. The low coming closest to the area on Sunday would mean more of a chance of heavy rain, but the confluence doesn't really go away and the low gets forced east off the NJ coast. GFS actually has a reinforcing wave of confluence coming south in Canada on Sunday.

I can definitely see a sharp cutoff between 2"+ and little rain because of the dry air/confluence and the low being forced east. Models are starting to key in on maybe I-84 or a little north from there for the cutoff. Regardless of the heavy rain it'll be a nasty weekend with 30+ mph winds which the pressure gradient makes worse. 

And 0z HRRR really shows what you're talking about. The significant rain really struggles to get up into our area on the HRRR. It weakens and a lot of northern NJ and the NYC area gets less than a half inch. It's far from a sure thing that the first round of rain on saturday is gonna be significant. Saturday will be a rainy day for sure, but it could just be light to moderate amounts up here with the heavier stuff staying south. 

[Stormlover74]

Plus whatever comes in round 2 Sunday (if anything)

 

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Plus whatever comes in round 2 Sunday (if anything)

 

Decent hit on Sunday 

[jm1220]

RGEM definitely still wet but more of it comes Sunday due to the dry air issue on Saturday. And the confluence is weaker so the heavy rain/low gets well north. 

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

RGEM definitely still wet but more of it comes Sunday due to the dry air issue on Saturday. And the confluence is weaker so the heavy rain/low gets well north. 

Yeah RGEM gives most of the area 2 and half to 3 inches of rain. The Canadian models continue to be the most impressed with this event. 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah RGEM gives most of the area 2 and half to 3 inches of rain. The Canadian models continue to be the most impressed with this event. 

1-3 inches of rain with 25-35 mph winds for our area this weekend 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

1-3 inches of rain with 25-35 mph winds for our area this weekend 

Gonna be an awful weekend whether it's 1" or 3" of rain. 

[NJsnow89]

I know this is a ny forum but anyone know what to expect in the central NC area? 

[winterwx21]

GFS continues to not be impressed with saturday. Just a quarter to half inch for most on the 0z run, but we end up getting a good soaking for the weekend due to significant rain on sunday. 

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, NJsnow89 said:

I know this is a ny forum but anyone know what to expect in the central NC area? 

Where are you located? 

[Roger Smith]

1 hour ago, NJsnow89 said:

I know this is a ny forum but anyone know what to expect in the central NC area? 

4 to 7 inches Fri-Sat to Sun 0600h, peak gusts 40-55 and low 70s t, dp, slow clearing Sunday

[NJsnow89]

27 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Where are you located? 

Wilson NC, east of Raleigh NC

[jm1220]

Interesting battle between the GFS and NAM which keep drying the rain up in the confluence, and RGEM that’s still very wet. Euro looks to be in the middle and still gets rain all the way upstate. If I had to pick one group I’d pick the dry models since we’ve seen setups like these before that ended up drier than expected because it has to overcome reinforcing high pressure/dry air. And Sunday is looking drier on those models as well because the confluence is being reinforced in Quebec. But like I said regardless, it’s going to be an awful weekend. 

[Rtd208]

 

[Rtd208]

Currently it's looking more like a 1-2" rainfall for the NYC Metro/C-NNJ with locally higher amounts but that should still be enough to issued a flood Watch considering how much rainfall some areas have had recently. The longer storm duration could argue against issuing flood watches though. We'll see.

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Interesting battle between the GFS and NAM which keep drying the rain up in the confluence, and RGEM that’s still very wet. Euro looks to be in the middle and still gets rain all the way upstate. If I had to pick one group I’d pick the dry models since we’ve seen setups like these before that ended up drier than expected because it has to overcome reinforcing high pressure/dry air. And Sunday is looking drier on those models as well because the confluence is being reinforced in Quebec. But like I said regardless, it’s going to be an awful weekend. 

I think it'll be less impactful and more dreadful to deal with. Rainfall totals look benign and outside of immediate coastal impacts there shouldn't be too much to deal with wind wise. 

Think of it as an early fall coastal storm with very poor timing sadly