NorthHillsWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Well, PTC has been designated off the Florida coast. Models have really honed in on the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras as a landfall threat. Models are also indicating this could become fully tropical before landfall, and possibly strengthen to a high-end TS. As a short notice event, folks should probably prepare for the equivalent of a hurricane landfall. The forecast track also could be nudged west, as some models are showing. Areas from the Triangle-east need to pay attention. This is likely to produce higher impacts than Idalia for the state. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Lol no replies even though this could be a nice storm for our area in central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 We need some soil soaking rains here in Northeast North Carolina badly. It's been very dry. Just really hope the wind doesn't get too ratcheted up. Tides will be interesting in the usual spots but particularly up in Norfolk and some of the lower areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Gusts of 40-45 look likely for triangle area. These quasi-tropical systems tend to develop a mean NW rain band. Wherever that sets up will exceed expectations with this storm for inland areas. Coast looks locked in for equivalent of a high-end TS. Track this is taking works to drive a lot of surge up the sounds and rivers. Forecast surge values increased to 3-5’ for some rivers and bays on western sides of the sounds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 10 hours ago, Stormpc said: We need some soil soaking rains here in Northeast North Carolina badly. It's been very dry. Just really hope the wind doesn't get too ratcheted up. Tides will be interesting in the usual spots but particularly up in Norfolk and some of the lower areas. We need it. I put 350 lbs of seed out last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 12 hours ago, NJsnow89 said: Lol no replies even though this could be a nice storm for our area in central NC If you’ve lived in coastal NC very long, this doesn’t reach excitement level. Kind of like Minneapolis residents and a 4 inch snow. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Can definitely tell it’s not a fully tropical system when you step outside. A cool north wind blowing today. Very fall feel to the air, not the usual muggy tropical vibe before tropical storms/hurricanes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Light rain started up around 7:30 this morning and have picked up .29" so far. Winds have gusted up to 25 mph so far. Very cool outside as the temp is only 67. The wind makes it feel even cooler. As NorthHills bought up, feels more like a Noreaster than a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 The 12z GFS took a sizeable jump west and now brings 2-3" of rain to the Triad. It also brings higher (50mph +) gusts to Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 39 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The 12z GFS took a sizeable jump west and now brings 2-3" of rain to the Triad. It also brings higher (50mph +) gusts to Raleigh I think triangle area should be included in the TS warning 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Wonder if folks up here in the Triangle need to prepare for downed trees and power outages. Not sure if it will be that bad up here or not. Scattered outages but nothing major. What you’d expect with 40-45 mph winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flair_2000 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: If you’ve lived in coastal NC very long, this doesn’t reach excitement level. Kind of like Minneapolis residents and a 4 inch snow. Honestly, the biggest concern I have with this system is getting 'dry slotted' on the east side. The afternoon models are starting to hint at this. We need the rain here in NE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Officially have Tropical Storm Ophelia. BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023 ...CYCLONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 76.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, flair_2000 said: Honestly, the biggest concern I have with this system is getting 'dry slotted' on the east side. The afternoon models are starting to hint at this. We need the rain here in NE NC. We'll have plenty of rain between now and midnight it won't matter. It's a fire hose coming off the Atlantic right now. Pouring on the coast and well inland. It wouldn't be bad to get dry slotted in this case. Two or three inches is plenty. Who knows how this is going to play out. The one given is the next 6 to 10 hours of moderate to heavy rain. That's good enough. And limited power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Breezy & Rainy here on the Coast.. Typical Nor'Easter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Going to be interesting to watch where that NW band sets up. Could really bring some nasty weather well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Any threat of severe storms or tornados inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Recon is finding winds near hurricane force and they just started sampling the stronger NW side. Hurricane warning incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Any threat of severe storms or tornados inland? Yes. NE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Buoy reports have really ramped up. From cape fear to hatteras all offshore buoys are gusting over 50 with the Onslow bay outer buoy gusting to 65 at the moment. These winds should make it to the coast is the next 3-4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Buoy reports have really ramped up. From cape fear to hatteras all offshore buoys are gusting over 50 with the Onslow bay outer buoy gusting to 65 at the moment. These winds should make it to the coast is the next 3-4 hours You realize over-water winds do not translate 1:1 on-land? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Rain is here in Raleigh. A few good gusts before it got here but wind seems to have backed off a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Mostly clear with some thin cirus and a handful of little whispy clouds zipping along at a quick pace in Greensboro. Strange sunset lighting with more clouds cover to the East muting the blue sky. Rather breezier than I would have expected although the bendy oaks can be decieving. Hoping for a slower landfall and thus experience a little of the fun in the AM (even though it shouldn't get too exciting anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 I am up to 2.15" for the day. Very breezy but not even strong enough to knock down weak branches. Hopefully it stays that way. Peak wind so far has been 28.6 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Alot of Folks are going to be caught Unawares, here on the SENC Coast with this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Not much action yet near where I’m at in Wilson county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 Man I love coastal storms here in the triad. We get to have the icing and the cake, but don't have to mess with cleaning up the dishes. Nice and cool with a glorious breeze. Perfect night on the deck, but no rain...yet. I'm sure the OBX folks are knee deep in dirty dishes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 12 hours ago, yotaman said: I am up to 2.15" for the day. Very breezy but not even strong enough to knock down weak branches. Hopefully it stays that way. Peak wind so far has been 28.6 mph The center looks to be going right over you this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 23, 2023 Author Share Posted September 23, 2023 Just over 1” of rain here so far. Almost no wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 23, 2023 Share Posted September 23, 2023 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: The center looks to be going right over you this morning Had no power or cell this morning so I don't know if it passed over me or just to the west. My lowest pressure was 29.3 at 7 am. Temp was 74 at 8 am and is now 63. We picked up 4.41" with a top wind gust of 28 mph last night. Only small dead branches down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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