Tropical Storm Ophelia—Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Mid-Atlantic

[gymengineer]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Maybe some kind of sting jet on the southern quadrant. It's actually quite common with subtropical "half-canes" at this latitude. 

The winds are decent on the east side too with only low clouds. I wonder what they’ll find in the northwest side. 

[adelphi_sky]

Wind advisory just went out. 20 - 30mph with gusts up to 45mph. Stronger (50mph) along the Chesapeake bay shore and tidal Potomac. 

[gymengineer]

TS Ophelia-60 mph 

[Terpeast]

NHC track further west. Up the bay

[Kmlwx]

[vastateofmind]

28 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

What?

Who doesn't like a week straight a raw wetness with a NE breeze?

User name checks out...   

Now getting wind advisory for my neck 'o the woods. Interesting.

[stormy]

The latest NHC track is  20 - 30 miles west of the bay up to Baltimore.  The latest NBM D.C rainfall total is 2.62 inches.

[Deck Pic]

72/56, mostly cloudy 
 

Boards on the window
Mail by the door

[Scraff]

10 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

User name checks out...   

Now getting wind advisory for my neck 'o the woods. Interesting.

OMG. I better load up the beer fridge!! 

[Random Chaos]

Just now, Scraff said:

OMG. I better load up the beer fridge!! 

You might lose power. Better stock on ice chests instead.

[konksw]

Can she eke out another 14 mph sustained to get to a Cat 1. 

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

72/56, mostly cloudy 
 

Boards on the window
Mail by the door

i think it was warmer on March 3,2001

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

NHC track further west. Up the bay

We finally get something up the bay and it's a naked swirl halficane.

[gymengineer]

Yup, almost as soon as the plane reached the northwest side: hurricane-force flight level winds and 60+ kt unflagged SFMR

[TSSN+]

Recon finding 70kts on NW side 

[WxWatcher007]

I’d need to see a little more sampling, but this one does look close to hurricane strength per recon…

[mappy]

I love systems that show up with little lead time. Only 8 pages for a possible cat 1 hurricane that starts to impact the area tonight? So much nicer than three threads after 10 days of model watching  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d need to see a little more sampling, but this one does look close to hurricane strength per recon…

You need to reel this one in, but slowly; get me to a cat 1 inb4 landfall. 

[TSSN+]

75kts FL, 60-65kts surface. Should be at 70mph probably now. Definitely think hitting a cane is not out of the question now. 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Recon finding 70kts on NW side 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY TONIGHT/...
Newly named Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to move north
through tonight, making landfall along the North Carolina coast.
Ophelia will track into southeast Virginia, eventually losing
its tropical characteristics and becoming an extratropical
system as it moves across Virginia. This is the reason for the
combination of tropical (Tropical Storm Warnings) and non-
tropical (Wind Advisory) headlines in our area. Regardless of
its designation, this system is expected to bring widespread
rainfall and strong winds to the area starting tonight and
persisting through Sunday morning.

Light rain is expected to reach far southern Maryland this
evening, then spread north through the overnight. Most of the
area should be in light rain come sunrise Saturday. The
heaviest rain should hold off until late Saturday morning.
Temps tonight settle in the low to mid 50s, with upper 50s to
low 60s from D.C. down to southern Maryland.

Strong northeast winds are expected to develop along and east of
the Blue Ridge as the circulation of Ophelia pushes northward.
Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are expected, with stronger gusts up to
50-55mph along the immediate coast of the Western Shore and
Tidal Potomac. The combination of long duration wind gusts and a
saturated ground from rain will result in higher chances for
downed trees across the area.

A drenching rain is expected from the Blue Ridge eastward with
2 to 4 inches of rainfall, locally approaching 5 inches through
Sunday morning. Given upslope flow against the east slopes of
the Blue Ridge Mountains, some localized heavy maxima are not
out of the question. Forecast highs are in the upper 50s to mid
60s, locally down into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
mountains.

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not sure what that response is about, just reporting the info recon is showing. 

[Its a Breeze]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

75kts FL, 60-65kts surface. Should be at 70mph probably now. Definitely think hitting a cane is not out of the question now. 

Don't know. She's a bit wild, exposing herself to all right now. She needs to get her life together a bit more before hitting rock/bottom of the outer banks...

[Random Chaos]

Dropsonde found 66kt at surface NW of center. Category 1 threshold is 64kt.

 

[mattie g]

9 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY TONIGHT/...
Newly named Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to move north
through tonight, making landfall along the North Carolina coast.
Ophelia will track into southeast Virginia, eventually losing
its tropical characteristics and becoming an extratropical
system as it moves across Virginia. This is the reason for the
combination of tropical (Tropical Storm Warnings) and non-
tropical (Wind Advisory) headlines in our area. Regardless of
its designation, this system is expected to bring widespread
rainfall and strong winds to the area starting tonight and
persisting through Sunday morning.

Light rain is expected to reach far southern Maryland this
evening, then spread north through the overnight. Most of the
area should be in light rain come sunrise Saturday. The
heaviest rain should hold off until late Saturday morning.
Temps tonight settle in the low to mid 50s, with upper 50s to
low 60s from D.C. down to southern Maryland.

Strong northeast winds are expected to develop along and east of
the Blue Ridge as the circulation of Ophelia pushes northward.
Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are expected, with stronger gusts up to
50-55mph along the immediate coast of the Western Shore and
Tidal Potomac. The combination of long duration wind gusts and a
saturated ground from rain will result in higher chances for
downed trees across the area.

A drenching rain is expected from the Blue Ridge eastward with
2 to 4 inches of rainfall, locally approaching 5 inches through
Sunday morning. Given upslope flow against the east slopes of
the Blue Ridge Mountains, some localized heavy maxima are not
out of the question. Forecast highs are in the upper 50s to mid
60s, locally down into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
mountains.

But the models are drying up!

[87storms]

i think it was warmer on March 3,2001

It prob felt warmer with that southerly breeze/sun. I’m pretty sure I played basketball in shorts and a tshirt the day before.

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, mappy said:

I love systems that show up with little lead time. Only 8 pages for a possible cat 1 hurricane that starts to impact the area tonight? So much nicer than three threads after 10 days of model watching  

AMEN

Homebrew  is homebrew  for a reason. 

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not sure what that response is about, just reporting the info recon is showing. 

I think he is disappointed this could become a hurricane without an Ian like eyewall lol. 

Appreciate the updates as I’m mostly mobile right now. 

[TSSN+]

Convection trying to wrap the center 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not sure what that response is about, just reporting the info recon is showing. 

I don't want to go to work this weekend. 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Dropsonde found 66kt at surface NW of center. Category 1 threshold is 64kt.

That was at 925mb. The surface reading was at 58kt. 

The extrapolated pressure falls between passes is pretty good.