stormy Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 I noticed at 7 am that the 00z ECMWF 10M windfield brought the core of circulation over D.C. by 12z Sunday. The NHC at 11 am has now adjusted the track westward to just east of D.C. by Sunday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 also looks like the 12Z GFS is (so far) west of 6Z, at least through 30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Models about cut qpf in half with 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Models about cut qpf in half with 12z runs Noted the same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Annnnd here comes the drying trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Models about cut qpf in half with 12z runs They did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 So no more 1-3"? Darn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Globals can't resolve the convective elements. Go with the CAMs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 lol GFS is bone dry. Even shows the Frederick rain shadow with a minimum of barely 0.5" QPF. If this were winter people would be having an absolute meltdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3k nam looks to have the right idea. It's just a matter of where those bands rotate in off the Atlantic. Even the upslope mentioned earlier is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Things heating up down there at the Frying Pan Shoals Light... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 The leftovers from this sit off the coast then hit us again next weekend lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 NAMs appear to have less than 2" west of I-95. The thing just spins itself out over North Carolina and Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Things heating up down there at the Frying Pan Shoals Light... RIP phone speakers lol. Wow! Awesome! I'm going to be definitely driving down to sandy point tomorrow as the low passes probably overhead or just to the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 do you know how happy I am that this storm is happening this weekend and not next lol. Ill be in OC next weekend for Ocean's Calling, and they've already had to cancel the event once before because of a hurricane. Here's hoping this system gets the f outta here by Friday lol and that the loop-de-loop models show doesn't happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: NAMs appear to have less than 2" west of I-95. The thing just spins itself out over North Carolina and Virginia. It's been shown to hit a wall the last few days. I think it's almost nowcast time. Strength and amount of dry air intrusion changes up until the last minute with almost every coastal storm. I wouldn't be surprised if Frederick does pretty well this upslope. Just having something to track other than a summer clipper is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: NAMs appear to have less than 2" west of I-95. The thing just spins itself out over North Carolina and Virginia. 12km NAM isn't appreciably different from 00z or 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: The leftovers from this sit off the coast then hit us again next weekend lol Whether that loop happens or not, that block is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: 12km NAM isn't appreciably different from 00z or 18z. No doubt some on here were expecting 5" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, mappy said: do you know how happy I am that this storm is happening this weekend and not next lol. Ill be in OC next weekend for Ocean's Calling, and they've already had to cancel the event once before because of a hurricane. Here's hoping this system gets the f outta here by Friday lol and that the loop-de-loop models show doesn't happen. loop de loops always nail us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: No doubt some on here were expecting 5" of rain Right? We have to expect small changes in the bullseyes, as we always do. Just because a stripe of heaviest rain shifts further west or east doesn't mean that the system is drying up. Someone will end up with 2-3x...maybe even 4x more rain than other places - its just how these things work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 My bar is 1 inch and hopefully falling over an extended period to soak in. Hate that it's the weekend though We are heading to Calvert this evening to see relatives visiting from CA. Glad it's not tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 19 minutes ago, Ji said: loop de loops always nail us It's not really a loop, it's a surface low that gets induced as the upper ridge retrogrades/reamplifies and pinches off a piece of h5 energy, sending it southward underneath. Nice upper jet too. Remains to be seen if its real, but this blocky pattern appears to have some persistence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 52 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: The leftovers from this sit off the coast then hit us again next weekend lol It then proceeds to hang around combining with another system so it can continue to rain on us till the 5th. Though unlikely to be right I desperately hope its wrong, I can barely stay awake in school when its sunny out and if its cloudy all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Recon finds pressure 991mb, 60kts FL and 50kts surface on SW side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 989.6mb extrapolated from flying at 250-300m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 The wind’s kind of surprising given the lack of convection in the areas probed so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, gymengineer said: The wind’s kind of surprising given the lack of convection in the areas probed so far. Maybe some kind of sting jet on the southern quadrant. It's actually quite common with subtropical "half-canes" at this latitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, gymengineer said: The wind’s kind of surprising given the lack of convection in the areas probed so far. Kind of tells me that maybe this is a subtropical low or possibly even transitioning to a Mid Lattitude Low. If so then the storms effects are about to migrate out from the center especially northward pretty quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 20 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: It then proceeds to hang around combining with another system so it can continue to rain on us till the 5th. Though unlikely to be right I desperately hope its wrong, I can barely stay awake in school when its sunny out and if its cloudy all bets are off. What? Who doesn't like a week straight a raw wetness with a NE breeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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