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Tropical Storm Ophelia—Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Mid-Atlantic


WxWatcher007
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do you know how happy I am that this storm is happening this weekend and not next lol. Ill be in OC next weekend for Ocean's Calling, and they've already had to cancel the event once before because of a hurricane. 

Here's hoping this system gets the f outta here by Friday lol and that the loop-de-loop models show doesn't happen. 

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

NAMs appear to have less than 2" west of I-95. The thing just spins itself out over North Carolina and Virginia.

It's been shown to hit a wall the last few days.  I think it's almost nowcast time.  Strength and amount of dry air intrusion changes up until the last minute with almost every coastal storm.  I wouldn't be surprised if Frederick does pretty well this upslope.  Just having something to track other than a summer clipper is a win.

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7 minutes ago, mappy said:

do you know how happy I am that this storm is happening this weekend and not next lol. Ill be in OC next weekend for Ocean's Calling, and they've already had to cancel the event once before because of a hurricane. 

Here's hoping this system gets the f outta here by Friday lol and that the loop-de-loop models show doesn't happen. 

loop de loops always nail us

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2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

No doubt some on here were expecting 5" of rain

Right?

We have to expect small changes in the bullseyes, as we always do. Just because a stripe of heaviest rain shifts further west or east doesn't mean that the system is drying up. Someone will end up with 2-3x...maybe even 4x more rain than other places - its just how these things work.

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19 minutes ago, Ji said:

loop de loops always nail us

It's not really a loop, it's a surface low that gets induced as the upper ridge retrogrades/reamplifies and pinches off a piece of h5 energy, sending it southward underneath. Nice upper jet too. Remains to be seen if its real, but this blocky pattern appears to have some persistence.

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52 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The leftovers from this sit off the coast then hit us again next weekend lol

It then proceeds to hang around combining with another system so it can continue to rain on us till the 5th. Though unlikely to be right I desperately hope its wrong, I can barely stay awake in school when its sunny out and if its cloudy all bets are off.

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4 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

The wind’s kind of surprising given the lack of convection in the areas probed so far.

Kind of tells me that maybe this is a subtropical low or possibly even transitioning to a Mid Lattitude Low.  If so then the storms effects are about to migrate out from the center especially northward pretty quickly.

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20 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It then proceeds to hang around combining with another system so it can continue to rain on us till the 5th. Though unlikely to be right I desperately hope its wrong, I can barely stay awake in school when its sunny out and if its cloudy all bets are off.

What?

Who doesn't like a week straight a raw wetness with a NE breeze?

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