WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 It’s going to be sheared all the way to the end, but what you’re looking for as this approaches landfall about 24 hours from now is whether it can establish an inner core to take it close to C1. For that to happen, you need convection over the center, not adjacent to it. We don’t have that right now despite the intensification trend. Impacts remain the same generally though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Really would be shocked if this somehow organizes quickly and jump to Cat 1. Just doesn't have enough time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Really would be shocked if this somehow organizes quickly and jump to Cat 1. Just doesn't have enough time. It’s already at 50 and they have it hit 60. 15mph more is def possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Well and also discussions from NHC indicate it will get some baroclinic help. Not a "typical" system or pure tropical by any means. So if folks are looking at satellite and expecting a warm core red-meat beast - they going off of incorrect information. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Its still naked swirly to an extent. I may eat my words but it just doesn't have the time to cover up, get more convection on the SW/S/SE flanks to really bomb out and get to a 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 But weather gonna do what weather gonna do so if it rips and naked swirl tightens up then kudos to those going actual cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 22 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: It’s already at 50 and they have it hit 60. 15mph more is def possible Yeah... but it is not even a tropical system yet. It could become one, but this is not your typical situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 In some ways, it feels like the morning before a winter storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: In some ways, it feels like the morning before a winter storm. I can see the backend already 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, H2O said: I can see the backend already Stop summoning Ji. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 28 minutes ago, H2O said: I can see the backend already The NAO is going to flip to positive next week. All our snow will be gone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Looks like we got recon going in later today. Around noon-1pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: By the look of this thread I figured the storm went poof. Some very interesting weather on the way. Wake up, people! We have a soon to be tropical storm basically moving up the bay tomorrow. I think Lee raised the bar a tad too high this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 If it does go tropical, it’ll be right before landfall when the center can tighten and pressure is lowest. This is a more subtropical look currently, as expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If it does go tropical, it’ll be right before landfall when the center can tighten and pressure is lowest. This is a more subtropical look currently, as expected. If the cone pans out it should be a tropical storm as of the next update. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, konksw said: If the cone pans out it should be a tropical storm as of the next update. We’ll see. They may have to wait for recon. There’s no convection at the center and there’s still more baroclinic influence IMO than tropical influence. Still intensifying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Well the OP GFS from the other week did have some kind of tropical system in this neck of the woods. Score 1 for America? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Well the OP GFS from the other week did have some kind of tropical system in this neck of the woods. Score 1 for America? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: They may have to wait for recon. There’s no convection at the center and there’s still more baroclinic influence IMO than tropical influence. Still intensifying though. When does recon go in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Well the OP GFS from the other week did have some kind of tropical system in this neck of the woods. Score 1 for America? Gfs and GGEM led the way on this for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: When does recon go in? Taking off within the hour and should be there early afternoon. 37 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Looks like we got recon going in later today. Around noon-1pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Another invest in eastern Atlantic also could be named today but I believe TD16 will become Ophelia very soon, looks to be approaching STS appearance. The other name in play is Philippe. After that, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney -- would expect the whole set eventually, possibly even the first of the additional names required. Lots of storms, not much impact yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Curious of this feature being the potential development of a core. It looks like that on radar, however from satellite it seems the circulation may be displaced to the south. Am wondering of other's thoughts on this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 the NAM is super dry in Loudoun 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Last few cycles of guidance seem to want to block the remnants and drag them back over us early next week. Would keep the rain going another several days maybe. Something to watch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: They may have to wait for recon. There’s no convection at the center and there’s still more baroclinic influence IMO than tropical influence. Still intensifying though. Rapid intensification. Look, there was not even a storm at 10 UTC, then watch how fast those clouds develop!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Interesting little section of spin around the circulation quite visible right now: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-SE_Coast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined also, some crazy wave action at Avon, NC on the OBX: https://www.surfchex.com/cams/avon/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 26 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Curious of this feature being the potential development of a core. It looks like that on radar, however from satellite it seems the circulation may be displaced to the south. Am wondering of other's thoughts on this. NHC's 11 AM discussion confirmed what I was thinking. Not exactly a core maybe, but low level center reformation in the convection. while surface analyses indicate there is still a front in close proximity to the low, deep convection has become more concentrated to the north of the center. In fact, GOES-16 1-min visible imagery suggests the low-level center is re-forming closer to the convection. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 hours ago, H2O said: I can see the backend already How does it look?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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