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Tropical Storm Ophelia—Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Mid-Atlantic


WxWatcher007
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It’s going to be sheared all the way to the end, but what you’re looking for as this approaches landfall about 24 hours from now is whether it can establish an inner core to take it close to C1. For that to happen, you need convection over the center, not adjacent to it. We don’t have that right now despite the intensification trend.

Impacts remain the same generally though. 
 


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5 minutes ago, konksw said:

115304_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

If the cone pans out it should be a tropical storm as of the next update. We’ll see. 

They may have to wait for recon. There’s no convection at the center and there’s still more baroclinic influence IMO than tropical influence. Still intensifying though. 

49938995.gif?0.5002627279797439
 

49938995.gif?0.9904625201210631

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Another invest in eastern Atlantic also could be named today but I believe TD16 will become Ophelia very soon, looks to be approaching STS appearance. The other name in play is Philippe. After that, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney -- would expect the whole set eventually, possibly even the first of the additional names required. Lots of storms, not much impact yet. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

They may have to wait for recon. There’s no convection at the center and there’s still more baroclinic influence IMO than tropical influence. Still intensifying though. 

49938995.gif?0.5002627279797439
 

49938995.gif?0.9904625201210631

Rapid intensification.  Look, there was not even a storm at 10 UTC, then watch how fast those clouds develop!!

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26 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Curious of this feature being the potential development of a core. It looks like that on radar, however from satellite it seems the circulation may be displaced to the south. Am wondering of other's thoughts on this.

3107bd4f9a2d87a530593f46eb739cd4.png

NHC's 11 AM discussion confirmed what I was thinking. Not exactly a core maybe, but low level center reformation in the convection.

while surface analyses indicate there is still a 
front in close proximity to the low, deep convection has become more 
concentrated to the north of the center. In fact, GOES-16 1-min 
visible imagery suggests the low-level center is re-forming closer 
to the convection. 
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