Random Chaos Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, AACOUNTYMD said: Question. . . should Eastern AA county expect the highest winds before, during, or after the heaviest rains? And would that be over night Friday or more during daylight hours on Saturday? Based on the model output, heaviest winds near the bay are likely overnight Friday into Saturday AM, probably from around midnight to 10am. This is a band well ahead of the main storm which will still be down in North Carolina at that time. Midday Saturday we should have relaxed winds (still 20kt+) and less gusty between the leading band and the main storm before it picks up again Saturday evening as the main storm center approaches, though less windy than the leading band the previous night. Heaviest rain is harder to forecast due to substantial model divergence but seems to generally correspond to the heaviest winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery suggests that the center of the low pressure system off the southeastern U.S. coast has become better defined this evening. Nearly all of the associated deep convection remains oriented in a curved band extending around the northern and eastern sides of the circulation, although a few convective elements are beginning to fill in on the back side of the system as well. Based on 1-minute wind observations from NOAA buoy 41002 and ship reports, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, with all tropical-storm-force winds currently north of the center on the north side of an attached warm front. The center does not appear to have moved much since the time it became better defined. Based on previous fixes, the current motion is estimated to be north-northeastward (015 degrees) at 3 kt. The dynamical guidance indicates that the center should begin moving northward--or re-form to the north--overnight, with a northward or north-northwestward motion continuing through Sunday morning. This forecast track brings the center of the low inland across eastern North Carolina on Saturday, and then across the southern Chesapeake Bay and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Except for the errant HWRF (which appears too far west), the rest of the guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the envelope. This new forecast is a bit east of the previous prediction, mainly for the portion of the track over land. Baroclinic processes associated with a sharp upper-level trough to the west of the low are expected induce strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA solutions, bringing the maximum winds to 50 kt in 24-36 hours before the center reaches the North Carolina coast. In addition, simulated satellite imagery suggests there could be an increase of deep convection near the low's center by Friday evening, and phase-space diagrams show the system just barely entering the deep warm core regime. Therefore, transition to a tropical cyclone is shown by 24 hours, although there still is some uncertainty on that occurrence due to frontal boundaries still in the area. Weakening is forecast after the center moves onshore, and the system is expected to become extratropical again by 60 hours. An official forecast is only provided out through 72 hours since global model fields show the low becoming absorbed by the associated frontal boundary off the New Jersey coast by 96 hours. Key Messages: 1. Low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is producing tropical-storm-force winds and is forecast to strengthen further before it reaches the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Friday and continuing into Saturday night. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation over portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, and the lower Chesapeake Bay, where Storm Surge Warnings are in place. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from this system could produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts across the eastern mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey Friday through Sunday. 4. Swells generated by this system will affect much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 29.5N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 22/1200Z 31.2N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 23/0000Z 32.5N 76.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 23/1200Z 34.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 36.4N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1200Z 37.9N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0000Z 39.0N 75.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 40mph at 11 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST STRENGTHENING AND NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 75.3W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck North Carolina * Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point * Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 75.3 West. The low is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northward or north-northwestward motion is expected to begin early Friday and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina through Friday night, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) to the north of the center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Helluva precip gradient on the 12z’s. The storm is basically sandwiched between the mountains and Atlantic. Looks like a blocky pattern coming up, which is actually how 09/10 started. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just rehashing but according to the NHC discussion, Sixteen has estimated 50mph winds early this morning and could be Ophelia later today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 By the look of this thread I figured the storm went poof. Some very interesting weather on the way. Wake up, people! We have a soon to be tropical storm basically moving up the bay tomorrow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, dailylurker said: By the look of this thread I figured the storm went poof. Some very interesting weather on the way. Wake up, people! We have a soon to be tropical storm basically moving up the bay tomorrow. Yeah, forecasting on Baby Ophelia has been pretty solid for the past 24-36 hours, just did a lot of catching up on NHC's discussions and graphics. It does indeed read like we're going to have some moderate impact here in the metro areas. Between lurking here, finishing some taskers at work, and squeezing the weekly mowing in...gonna be a busy day! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, dailylurker said: By the look of this thread I figured the storm went poof. Some very interesting weather on the way. Wake up, people! We have a soon to be tropical storm basically moving up the bay tomorrow. Not much left to do but wait. Good agreement among the models. Locked in. I guess the 'excitement' over whether it gets named or not? That won't change a thing wrt our sensible weather though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Yeah, forecasting on Baby Ophelia has been pretty solid for the past 24-36 hours, just did a lot of catching up on NHC's discussions and graphics. It does indeed read like we're going to have some moderate impact here in the metro areas. Between lurking here, finishing some taskers at work, and squeezing the weekly mowing in...gonna be a busy day! Indeed. I'm working ot today to get everything buttoned up. I've got a 10' tall cannabis plant in full bloom that I need to build support for. I'll be out in the dark tonight doing that. Ugh.. legal weed lol 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 75.3W ABOUT 250 MI...465 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 245 MI...450 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Indeed. I'm working to today to get everything buttoned up. I've got a 10' tall cannabis plant in full bloom that I need to build support for. I'll be out in the dark tonight doing that. Ugh.. legal weed lol Damn! That's tall! And now that you've mentioned that, I've got a couple butterfly bushes on the front of the house almost that tall that are gonna be laid out flat tomorrow between rain/wind, if I don't shore THEM up somehow. The forecasted northern reach of the wind field, which someone also mentioned a page ago last evening, is impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 The mesos all look very similar. The localized bonus amounts will probably be related to convection that develops tomorrow afternoon/evening as the center of the low tracks over the area for the eastern half of the region. Orographic lift will enhance rainfall on the ridges out west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Coastal DE would be a good local chase spot. Probably see 4" of rain with winds gusting to near 60 mph tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Extreme tides now forecast for Annapolis: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: Just rehashing but according to the NHC discussion, Sixteen has estimated 50mph winds early this morning and could be Ophelia later today Right now I look at it as a strong nor’easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Coastal DE would be a good local chase spot. Probably see 4" of rain with winds gusting to near 60 mph tomorrow. I was thinking earlier that you live in a spot that might get a good show out of the incoming storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Anyone notice that canadian and NHC have tracks further east than gfs, euro, icon and nam? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, vastateofmind said: I was thinking earlier that you live in a spot that might get a good show out of the incoming storm... Probably just a lot of rain here. Might see some gusts to 30 or so. Found this interesting little nugget buried in the very extensive AFD from Mount Holly this morning: Quote One other item to keep an eye on, particularly around the Delmarva, will be some potential for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. There may be enough shear and low-level helicity to support a low tornado threat with any storms that can become discrete and severe. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Found this interesting little nugget buried in the very extensive AFD from Mount Holly this morning: I was looking at the shear map’s just yesterday morning expecting that. With the vorticity of a tropical cyclone when storms in its bands come ashore it’s common to get weak tornadoes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Anyone notice that canadian and NHC have tracks further east than gfs, euro, icon and nam? I went back and looked and it seems pretty similar to the euro/gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Probably just a lot of rain here. Might see some gusts to 30 or so. Found this interesting little nugget buried in the very extensive AFD from Mount Holly this morning: Some of the local TV mets were mentioning this on social media yesterday. Definitely not a hazard I was initially prepared to be dealing with... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 A lot of convection firing close to the center at the end of the loop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, konksw said: A lot of convection firing close to the center at the end of the loop. Could that also be because of the better view as the sun rises? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Lots of lighting near the center 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Never mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Not saying it will but, wouldn’t shock me if this hits a cat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Based on my prior experience with Isaias, I have a feeling this is going to overperform IMBY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, TSSN+ said: Not saying it will but, wouldn’t shock me if this hits a cat 1 it's looking to take the track we always joke about here...up the bay into DC....cat 1 would cause some problems for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Not saying it will but, wouldn’t shock me if this hits a cat 1 It’s a race against the landfall clock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 25 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: I was looking at the shear map’s just yesterday morning expecting that. With the vorticity of a tropical cyclone when storms in its bands come ashore it’s common to get weak tornadoes. SPC disco mentions the risk for D2. Marginal, and for now confined to eastern VA into S MD and lower Delmarva Quote ...Mid-Atlantic... A tropical system is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move through eastern North Carolina on Saturday. To the east of the center, instability is forecast to increase during the day from eastern north Carolina into eastern Virginia. A marginal tornado threat may develop with bands of convection that move through the stronger instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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