Tropical Storm Ophelia—Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Mid-Atlantic

[yoda]

18z GFS 1-3" region wide... heaviest in S MD

[gymengineer]

That the “x” is orange, not red, on the NHC website is indicating they think there’s a 40% this system remains extra-tropical the whole time, right? If that were the case, it would never get a name, but the warnings would remain? 

[DCAlexandria]

18z GFS 1-3" region wide... heaviest in S MD

2.5” inside the beltway. Final call.


.

[TSG]

Planning to chase this one from the Northern Neck. My parent's have a place on the Rappahanock side in Lancaster County. I'm thinking Reedville will be an exciting place on Saturday.

[H2O]

I wanna chase this so bad. But got one kid doing XC and kids have homecoming stuff all weekend. Wanna see how low the bay gets on the east side from those NE winds

[Random Chaos]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

I wanna chase this so bad. But got one kid doing XC and kids have homecoming stuff all weekend. Wanna see how low the bay gets on the east side from those NE winds

I plan to post data on how high the tide gets on the west side. Got a staff gauge on my pier zeroed to zero datum (can look up the offset from mean low water to that).

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

I wanna chase this so bad. But got one kid doing XC and kids have homecoming stuff all weekend. Wanna see how low the bay gets on the east side from those NE winds

Sorry kids, dad is retired and needs his water fix.

[Kmlwx]

Apologies if posted already - getting caught up - 

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

That the “x” is orange, not red, on the NHC website is indicating they think there’s a 40% this system remains extra-tropical the whole time, right? If that were the case, it would never get a name, but the warnings would remain? 

Probably would remain unless it became clear in time that development wasn’t happening. 

[H2O]

UKX1 looks like the one I’d go with 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO is all in now.

 

[Roger Smith]

If Ophelia follows consensus track then I fear rainfalls are considerably underpredicted, 6 to 10 inch potential with a TS on track, not in all parts of region of course, but concentrated along an inland frontal boundary between tropical air dp 72-76 and cooler air with dew points in 60s. I would guess east central PA to west central MD to parts of VA-WV border regions. 

The heaviest rain is usually along and just west of the track of northward moving tropical storms. The slow forward speed would be a factor in exposing the region to longer accumulations of rain. If this proves correct, there could be severe flood risks in a few drainage basins of n/c VA into c MD and se PA. (also central NJ and possibly se NY)

[Stormfly]

Tomorrow would be a good time to check your gutters/downspouts and outdoor drains folks.

[Yeoman]

My lights are already flickering

[SnowGolfBro]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO is all in now.

 

Bullseye. Looking for similar results in 3 months.

[nj2va]

16 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO is all in now.

 

What drought?

[Eskimo Joe]

18z Euro ends the drought.

[09-10 analogy]

This year had been boring as hell, with haze being the headline, until late July when the severe thunderstorms started popping across the region. Now we -- or at least some of us -- have a by-god tropical system to experience. Things have turned around a bit. 

1979, David, and the O's had the best record in the AL.

This year, whatever it's called (if it's called anything) and the O's have the best record in the AL.

Analogs!

EDIT: So it's "Ophelia"? Love the Shakespearean names for tropical storms. They should just use Shakespearean names from here on in until they run out. But the guy wrote 40-odd plays so there should be a good reservoir of names to use. 

"Get thee to the National Mall. Why wouldst thou be a breeder of weenies? I myself am hardly indifferent but yet I could accuse me of following a glorified post-tropical system that it were better my mother had not borne me. I am very bored and therefore yearning for some interesting weather, with more offenses -- particularly at the reading of model output -- than I have thoughts to put them in ... or time to go to Cape Charles and act thereupon. "

[aldie 22]

2" doesn't seem like much after getting 6" earlier this month 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO is all in now.

 

Are those winds for 12z Monday?

Edit: I see it’s an accumulated max wind gust product now. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO is all in now.

 

I could hear a "PLEASE GOD" coming from the west after you posted that. 

26 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

My lights are already flickering

Stay safe. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Updated QPF forecast from the NBM as it aligns with the MARFC boundary:

[BristowWx]

41 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Bullseye. Looking for similar results in 3 months.

Yep me too.   4 inches all rain.  Boom!  

[Random Chaos]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO is all in now.

 

Where’s the rain/snow line? 

in seriousness, don’t like 58mph gusts near me…

[Scraff]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Updated QPF forecast from the NBM as it aligns with the MARFC boundary:

Per the usual, hoping the low can generate its own cold air.  
 

 

 

[AACOUNTYMD]

Question. . . should Eastern AA county expect the highest winds before, during, or after the heaviest rains? And would that be over night Friday or more during daylight hours on Saturday?  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, AACOUNTYMD said:

Question. . . should Eastern AA county expect the highest winds before, during, or after the heaviest rains? And would that be over night Friday or more during daylight hours on Saturday?  

Looks like Saturday AM for the highest winds. The closer you are to water, the higher the chance.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

2" doesn't seem like much after getting 6" earlier this month 

That’s what she said. 

[yoda]

40mph at 11

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162023
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST STRENGTHENING AND NOW
PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 75.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach
* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near
latitude 29.5 North, longitude 75.3 West.  The low is moving toward 
the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A northward or 
north-northwestward motion is expected to begin early Friday and
continue through Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of the
low will approach the coast of North Carolina through Friday night,
and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia,
and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm
before it reaches the coast of North Carolina.  Regardless of
whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring
tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and
mid-Atlantic coasts.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).