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Tropical Storm Ophelia—Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Mid-Atlantic


WxWatcher007
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Orphilia has been unusual because it has been a hybrid system.  Sub tropical evolved to tropical.

Sub tropical systems can often have a widespread wind-field more removed from the center compared to a pure tropical system.

Associated rainfall can also be farther removed from the center of a sub tropical system than a pure tropical system.

Both of these sub tropical characteristics have been quite obvious with Orphilia. 

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Areas affected...northern North Carolina, central/eastern
Virginia, southern Maryland, southern Delaware, and the District
of Columbia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 231822Z - 240030Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ophelia
continues to promote considerable flash flood potential across the
discussion area this afternoon.

Discussion...The center of Ophelia continues to move northward
across eastern North Carolina and was located near the NC/VA
border southwest of Norfolk.  Bands of heavy precipitation have
continued to produce areas of 1+ inch/hr rain rates over multiple
hours both near the center (near Roanoke Rapids) and also
west-through-southwest of the center near Raleigh metro.  The bulk
of flash flood potential has been located with this activity. 
Meanwhile, scattered convection has progressed fairly quickly
across the DelMarVa that has managed to produce spots of 0.5-0.75
inch/hr rain rates while wetting soils downstream of Ophelia.

The overall flash flood scenario with Ophelia continues and
remains separated into these two separate regimes: 1) with
concentrated/banded convection near the center and just west of
the storm and 2) with banded convection forming in a slightly more
buoyant airmass northeastward toward the DelMarVa.  So far, the
more concentrated flash flood threat has evolved over North
Carolina (with at least one report of closed roadways near
Greenville).  Prolonged heavy rainfall in these areas have
resulted in 2-7 inches storm total precipitation and wet soils
supporting efficient runoff.  Flash flooding remains likely in
this scenario, and the better risk should continue to spread
northward toward the I-95 corridor in eastern Virginia (including
Richmond Metro) through 00Z.

Farther to the northeast (from far southeastern Virginia
northeastward to the DelMarVa), lighter rain rates have generally
materialized despite notable banding of convection.  Rain has
generally remained fairly progressive, although the presence of
strong low-level convergence and buoyancy in these areas may still
promote isolated flash flood potential especially if convective
bands stall and manage to produce higher rain rates through 00Z.
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coordinated with the the above-mentioned MPD by ThePhotoGuy...

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
217 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-VAZ053>057-527-240915-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0012.230924T0000Z-230924T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne
Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and
Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-Central and Southeast Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie,
Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel,
Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna
Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville,
Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg,
Dahlgren, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and
Montclair
217 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding in urban areas caused by excessive rainfall
  is possible.

* WHERE...District of Columbia. Portions of Maryland, including the
  following areas, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard,
  Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Prince Georges and
  Southern Baltimore. Portions of Virginia, including the following
  areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast
  Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Fairfax, King George,
  Spotsylvania and Stafford.

* WHEN...From 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - As the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia moves north along or
    near the Interstate 95 corridor, it will produce an area of
    enhanced rainfall. This is expected to result in 2 to 3
    inches of rain, with high end amounts of 4 inches possible.
    This heavy rainfall will occur in a 1 to 2 hour period, and
    could result in flash flooding within the urban I-95
    corridor.
  - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety
    and preparedness information

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

KR

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

We’re going to see Walker Hayes tonight at the Frederick Fair….I’ve been hoping they cancel but no such luck.  

I’ve really enjoyed today’s weather - breezy with some good gusts and bouts of mod/heavy rain.  Good weather to put up fall decor inside today.

100% agree. Except our 26 year old son visiting from Austin is all, "Hey, let's go downtown and visit some museums and bars!!" And my wife and I are all, "DUDE, have you LOOKED OUTSIDE??" :D 

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20 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

:lol:

I mean, it'll be like an hour of moderate rain yeah, but demolished?

Okay, probably not demolished, but you'll get rained on pretty good. It should be a drought buster.

That buzzsaw to your south, it is developing additional showers ahead of it. You guys have a lot of rain to get thru today into tonight! :)

 

Meanwhile in other news, where I am at it is 99/70 with a heat index of 106 lol.

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35 minutes ago, Jebman said:

That pinwheel in central VA is gonna baste some communities with a good amount of rain. It's spinnin' like a buzzsaw and loaded with torrential tropical rain. Someone is gonna get demolished.

Leaving Cville in the company truck for a quick trip to our Richmond center like every Saturday. . Guess I will get to see what that pinwheel core is all about...

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5 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Leaving Cville in the company truck for a quick trip to our Richmond center like every Saturday. . Guess I will get to see what that pinwheel core is all about...

Have a lot of fun and stay safe.

By the way, could you all please send us an inch of your rain please? lol

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