adelphi_sky Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 46 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: There's no other member on this board than @Scraff (well, @CAPE, too) when the power fails, and we NEED to empty out the beer fridge before it all gets warm...or, alternately, transfer it to the ice chests.... That is a REAL pretty sat pic right there. So, for those who were here back then...does Ophelia fall just short of being as impactful as Isabel in 2003 in terms of rain or wind? Or not even close? I've seen a few historical charts that showed Isabel dropped 1"-3" in the metro area, but the winds (I think, or at least remember) definitely had in impact in the area. Isabel knocked a tree into my deck. So, I'd say personally that was impactful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 at the guy in the tropical forum thread saying that the shallow shelf waters were upwelled by Hurricane Lee wtf! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Pressure on flight 983/4 probably adjusted to 986mb or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 These are some fast extrapolated pressure falls. 984.6mb down from 986.8 at last pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Probably need hurricane watches maybe even warnings up for part of NC given the recon data. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Recon just hit some 65-70kts again surface. SW side. I wanna see that west side with the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, TSSN+ said: Recon just hit some 65-70kts again surface. SW side. I wanna see that west side with the convection. This is looking really interesting… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Hurricane watch up for NC coastline 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Hurricane watch up for NC coastline Great call on that a few minutes ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Up to 70mph. Has like 12hrs to gain 5mph. Think it can be done. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Did the center go/reform SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Little surprised that there is not even a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern Chesapeake Bay. Most of the models are predicting 35-40mph-winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Little surprised that there is not even a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern Chesapeake Bay. Most of the models are predicting 35-40mph-winds. Gusts, not sustained I believe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Gusts, not sustained I believe Also due to it being in transition by the time it gets up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, vastateofmind said: There's no other member on this board than @Scraff (well, @CAPE, too) when the power fails, and we NEED to empty out the beer fridge before it all gets warm...or, alternately, transfer it to the ice chests.... That is a REAL pretty sat pic right there. So, for those who were here back then...does Ophelia fall just short of being as impactful as Isabel in 2003 in terms of rain or wind? Or not even close? I've seen a few historical charts that showed Isabel dropped 1"-3" in the metro area, but the winds (I think, or at least remember) definitely had in impact in the area. Isabel was an unwinding former high end cat 4 or maybe a 5, lots more kinetic energy built up than Ophelia will have. Also, its forward speed started to really book at landfall, which I think led to a short period (8hrs) of strong winds. Rain wasn’t an issue in the metro really, but there was terrible surge in the bay and up the Potomac. Annapolis and Alexandria were hit hard. The area of Belle haven and Huntington south of old town were were both severely flooded by surge. All the bridges on the mount vernon trail were damaged or destroyed (in fact they are replacing them this year), so the seem to last 20 years. I Iived in the fort hunt area then and now, we were without power for 5 days during Isabelle. I don’t think Ophelia will be anywhere as impactful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Gusts, not sustained I believe 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Also due to it being in transition by the time it gets up here. Transition more likely the reason. Winds are forecast (just north of Bay Bridge): Tonight NE wind 19 to 24 kt, with gusts as high as 34 kt. Rain, mainly after 11pm. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Saturday NE wind around 30 kt, with gusts as high as 44 kt. Rain. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Saturday Night NE wind 27 to 32 kt decreasing to 17 to 22 kt. Winds could gust as high as 41 kt. Rain. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. Though models actually show strongest winds tonight closer 30-35kt gusts 50kt+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 70 mph sustained winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Did the center go/reform SW? Yup lastest vortex message is SW of the last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 62 kt surface from a dropsonde in the SW band…maintaining. Ophelia was modeled to be a pulse-y storm with center jumps, etc. We happened to witness one very quick pulse up because of the timing of recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 On my way back from Colorado. A super quick look at the models shows a difference in max gusts between the meso models (50mph) and globals (40mph). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Looks like an eyewall starting to form on radar on the west side of the storm. Nice convection ring: can see it on Wilmington radar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 In Ocean City at 55th St. by dumb luck. Winds easily sustained at 30 to 35. When walking on the beach foot prints are covered up within two minutes. As of now no rain yet. waves have to be 7 to 10 feet. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Anyone see WPC highlighted us for next weekend for heavy rain from the left overs from this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Out on the end of The Atlantic City Pier in Morehead City, Ophelia will be a hurricane when she comes ashore later tonight, regardless of what the NHC says............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Radar out of Raleigh has a nice view of the circulation. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Anyone see WPC highlighted us for next weekend for heavy rain from the left overs from this storm. Yippee. Weekend rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Anyone see WPC highlighted us for next weekend for heavy rain from the left overs from this storm. Hopefully that is correct! It will take nearly 10 inches over 2-3 weeks to bring us out of the Drought. Ophelia will not do the job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 With the high clouds over Illinois and near the Mississippi River fairly far to the west areas that do not have too many low clouds from Ophelia yet, especially from the metro region westwards, may experience a, at least, briefly gorgeous sunset before any of the aforementioned Midwest clouds try to cut the show short (they're pretty far west so we'll see how long a gorgeous sunset lasts). The further WNW you are the better. (Medium confidence) 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, George BM said: With the high clouds over Illinois and near the Mississippi River fairly far to the west areas that do not have to many low clouds from Ophelia yet, especially from the metro region westwards, may experience a, at least, briefly gorgeous sunset before any of the aforementioned Midwest clouds try to cut the show short (they're pretty far west so we'll see how long a gorgeous sunset lasts). The further WNW you are the better. (Medium confidence) Honestly the “hurricane sunset” associated with tropical systems is probably what I’m most excited for with this storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Not everyday you get to see this on visible. Pretty incredible seeing its clouds reach up to Boston. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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