yoda Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 18z GFS 1-3" region wide... heaviest in S MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 That the “x” is orange, not red, on the NHC website is indicating they think there’s a 40% this system remains extra-tropical the whole time, right? If that were the case, it would never get a name, but the warnings would remain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 18z GFS 1-3" region wide... heaviest in S MD2.5” inside the beltway. Final call. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Planning to chase this one from the Northern Neck. My parent's have a place on the Rappahanock side in Lancaster County. I'm thinking Reedville will be an exciting place on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 I wanna chase this so bad. But got one kid doing XC and kids have homecoming stuff all weekend. Wanna see how low the bay gets on the east side from those NE winds 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, H2O said: I wanna chase this so bad. But got one kid doing XC and kids have homecoming stuff all weekend. Wanna see how low the bay gets on the east side from those NE winds I plan to post data on how high the tide gets on the west side. Got a staff gauge on my pier zeroed to zero datum (can look up the offset from mean low water to that). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, H2O said: I wanna chase this so bad. But got one kid doing XC and kids have homecoming stuff all weekend. Wanna see how low the bay gets on the east side from those NE winds Sorry kids, dad is retired and needs his water fix. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Apologies if posted already - getting caught up - 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 hour ago, gymengineer said: That the “x” is orange, not red, on the NHC website is indicating they think there’s a 40% this system remains extra-tropical the whole time, right? If that were the case, it would never get a name, but the warnings would remain? Probably would remain unless it became clear in time that development wasn’t happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 UKX1 looks like the one I’d go with 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 WB 18Z EURO is all in now. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 If Ophelia follows consensus track then I fear rainfalls are considerably underpredicted, 6 to 10 inch potential with a TS on track, not in all parts of region of course, but concentrated along an inland frontal boundary between tropical air dp 72-76 and cooler air with dew points in 60s. I would guess east central PA to west central MD to parts of VA-WV border regions. The heaviest rain is usually along and just west of the track of northward moving tropical storms. The slow forward speed would be a factor in exposing the region to longer accumulations of rain. If this proves correct, there could be severe flood risks in a few drainage basins of n/c VA into c MD and se PA. (also central NJ and possibly se NY) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Tomorrow would be a good time to check your gutters/downspouts and outdoor drains folks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 My lights are already flickering 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO is all in now. Bullseye. Looking for similar results in 3 months. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO is all in now. What drought? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 18z Euro ends the drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 This year had been boring as hell, with haze being the headline, until late July when the severe thunderstorms started popping across the region. Now we -- or at least some of us -- have a by-god tropical system to experience. Things have turned around a bit. 1979, David, and the O's had the best record in the AL. This year, whatever it's called (if it's called anything) and the O's have the best record in the AL. Analogs! EDIT: So it's "Ophelia"? Love the Shakespearean names for tropical storms. They should just use Shakespearean names from here on in until they run out. But the guy wrote 40-odd plays so there should be a good reservoir of names to use. "Get thee to the National Mall. Why wouldst thou be a breeder of weenies? I myself am hardly indifferent but yet I could accuse me of following a glorified post-tropical system that it were better my mother had not borne me. I am very bored and therefore yearning for some interesting weather, with more offenses -- particularly at the reading of model output -- than I have thoughts to put them in ... or time to go to Cape Charles and act thereupon. " 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2" doesn't seem like much after getting 6" earlier this month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO is all in now. Are those winds for 12z Monday? Edit: I see it’s an accumulated max wind gust product now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 39 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO is all in now. I could hear a "PLEASE GOD" coming from the west after you posted that. 26 minutes ago, Yeoman said: My lights are already flickering Stay safe. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Updated QPF forecast from the NBM as it aligns with the MARFC boundary: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 41 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Bullseye. Looking for similar results in 3 months. Yep me too. 4 inches all rain. Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO is all in now. Where’s the rain/snow line? in seriousness, don’t like 58mph gusts near me… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Updated QPF forecast from the NBM as it aligns with the MARFC boundary: Per the usual, hoping the low can generate its own cold air. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Question. . . should Eastern AA county expect the highest winds before, during, or after the heaviest rains? And would that be over night Friday or more during daylight hours on Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, AACOUNTYMD said: Question. . . should Eastern AA county expect the highest winds before, during, or after the heaviest rains? And would that be over night Friday or more during daylight hours on Saturday? Looks like Saturday AM for the highest winds. The closer you are to water, the higher the chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, aldie 22 said: 2" doesn't seem like much after getting 6" earlier this month That’s what she said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 40mph at 11 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST STRENGTHENING AND NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 75.3W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia * Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck North Carolina * Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point * Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach * Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 75.3 West. The low is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northward or north-northwestward motion is expected to begin early Friday and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the low will approach the coast of North Carolina through Friday night, and then move across eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the low is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring tropical-storm conditions to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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