LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Agreed. Has some time to strengthen some. And she is looking much more robust now. Shorter window than you would think. It has a few more hours to play with the Gulf Stream before it hits the shallow shelf waters. Those waters were significantly upwelled during Lee. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Correct me if I’m wrong but the waters Ophelia are in now we’re not really touched by Lee. Lee’s wake is well east no? In any event fantastic tropical transitioning going on, we are lucky to have it occur so close to land so it can be documented in radar 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Shorter window than you would think. It has a few more hours to play with the Gulf Stream before it hits the shallow shelf waters. Those waters were significantly upwelled during Lee. Lee did not touch the waters Ophelia is in now, or about to enter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Normandy said: Correct me if I’m wrong but the waters Ophelia are in now we’re not really touched by Lee. Lee’s wake is well east no? In any event fantastic tropical transitioning going on, we are lucky to have it occur so close to land so it can be documented in radar That is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Wow, that was fast. The surface center of Ophelia is now under the expanding CDO. Recon about to go in for another pass. 987mb was last one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Shorter window than you would think. It has a few more hours to play with the Gulf Stream before it hits the shallow shelf waters. Those waters were significantly upwelled during Lee. Ophelia is west of the upwelling and has warm waters until landfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Shorter window than you would think. It has a few more hours to play with the Gulf Stream before it hits the shallow shelf waters. Those waters were significantly upwelled during Lee. Did you forget where Hurricane Lee went? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Lee did not touch the waters Ophelia is in now, or about to enter. That’s not correct. Lee produced a large area of strong offshore winds all the way to the Carolina’s. Offshore winds created upwelling (I would need 10 pages to explain the process) it happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Did you forget where Hurricane Lee went? See my last post. I’ll add this, the large swells Lee created that effected the coast also had an upwelling effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Water temp at HAT is 77 and 79 at CF, not exactly bath water 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 EX 984.6mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s not correct. Lee produced a large area of strong offshore winds all the way to the Carolina’s. Offshore winds created upwelling (I would need 10 pages to explain the process) it happened. Friction. Saved you 10 pages. 3 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Water temp at HAT is 77 and 79 at CF, not exactly bath water And? that waters been getting churned by TS force winds for hours and hours. What was the temp 24 hrs ago? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Water temp at HAT is 77 and 79 at CF, not exactly bath water That is enough for Ophelia to maintain intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, TSG said: And? that waters been getting churned by TS force winds for hours and hours. What was the temp 24 hrs ago? 78. This isn’t Florida. Lose the attitude. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Plenty warm enough given its location, strength and mode of formation. Not really a factor here. Don't forget that current speeds in the Gulf Stream are on the order of 1 m/s. Only takes a few days in that area to recover from upwelling induced by wind as there's always a fresh supply advected in. 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Interesting NOAA NHC 5pm discussion. Ophelia to continue intensification into landfall. No mention of impacts from shallow shelf waters, seems to indicate Gulf Current to mitigate shelf impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 She’s going to make landfall before 8am per NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 19 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: 78. This isn’t Florida. Lose the attitude. that's rich after reading your last 10 posts in this thread. The storm is strengthening and it's clearly got tropical characteristics at this point. You've been poo-pooing this like a 5 y/o who needs a nap since yesterday. 2 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Just now, TSG said: that's rich after reading your last 10 posts in this thread You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, mob1 said: You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5). Can you guys relax it’s not a big deal. Everyone has an opinion. Just no non-practical Debbie downer or hypecaster actions Has to be backed up with the facts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Its structure continues to improve with every frame on radar. It almost looks like its wrapped modest convection around the east side of the llc now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, mob1 said: You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5). SSTs offshore are well over 80 These two stations are roughly equidistant from the current center, NW and SE respectively. The GS is between those two so temps are likely even higher where the storm is. Frying Pan Shoals is now at 80.1, was at 81.7 just before midnight. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013 83.8 at this buoy https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, TSG said: SSTs offshore are well over 80 These two stations are roughly equidistant from the current center, NW and SE respectively. The GS is between those two so temps are likely even higher where the storm is. Frying Pan Shoals is now at 80.1, was at 81.7 just before midnight. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013 83.8 at this buoy https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002 It's fine where it's now, we were discussing the shelf waters as it gets closer to the coast. Either way, should be a fairly steady state from now through landfall (might strengthen a bit in the next few hours but should weaken a bit as it approaches the coast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said: Water temp at HAT is 77 and 79 at CF, not exactly bath water Yes but the Gulf Stream is where Ophellia currently sits right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, mob1 said: It's fine where it's now, we were discussing the shelf waters as it gets closer to the coast. Either way, should be a fairly steady state from now through landfall (might strengthen a bit in the next few hours but should weaken a bit as it approaches the coast). the 5-10 miles of cooler SSTs along the coast are not going to have much effect on how strong this is when it lands 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Not sure why so little interest in this. Convection now wrapping over the CoC. Very interesting 12 hours in play. 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Agreed. Has some time to strengthen some. And she is looking much more robust now. 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like there’s a decent amount of lightning with the convection West of the center. Ophelia is right over the gulf stream right now. Water will not get any warmer than that for this time of year for where it is at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 The limiting factor here isn't really SSTs. Don't listen to certain unproductive posters on here crap on it because of that. The real limiting factor is dry air. The 12z hurricane models all have a skeletal type of hurricane, devoid of convection on the right side mainly, making landfall. This already can be seen in the current radar appearance, struggling with some convection on the east side. That being said it's constructing a legit core and I am really interested of where this goes over next several hours. I think 60-70 knots at landfall. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 22, 2023 Author Share Posted September 22, 2023 Regardless of whether or not this becomes a hurricane and assuming no weakening, this is looking to be the strongest storm with a fully nontropical origin to hit the SE US since 2014’s Arthur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 All in MPH Piney Island, NC 33/55 Chery Point, NC 29/47 Beaufort 23/41 Cape Hatteras 22/43 Pretty good gusts considering COC is still 12 hours out from LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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