GaWx Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 More from the 11AM NHC PTC #16 advisory: WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in North Carolina on Friday, and spread northward Friday night and Saturday. RAINFALL: The system is forecast to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts of 6 inches, across the eastern Mid-Atlantic states from North Carolina to New Jersey, Friday through Sunday. This rainfall may produce localized urban and small stream flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by this system will be affecting much of the east coast of the United States through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Seeing that LLC become better defined, but like the NHC stated, center reformations will be possible. We'll see how the next few hours go, but it's coming together. Likely won't become tropical until it's closing in on NC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 GFS coming in stronger and further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I’m beginning to think this one might become quite interesting for us NC folks When did you relocate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Seeing that LLC become better defined, but like the NHC stated, center reformations will be possible. We'll see how the next few hours go, but it's coming together. Likely won't become tropical until it's closing in on NC. This is a good point, because reformation adds uncertainty to the track. Hopefully the 18z HAFS will shed some light on the evolution. Seeing all that lightning arcing around the circulation leads me to believe this is developing rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 60 mph at landfall 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: GFS coming in stronger and further west It’s literally right over where it was before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 HAFS B and A bring a 55-60 knot TS into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It’s literally right over where it was before. It is now. It started further west. It’s a wide non tropical center so it’s going to be tough to pinpoint where the actual center forms when it acquires tropical characteristics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 HWRF gets it down to 982, but winds don't really correspond. Maybe due to land interactions. EDIT: It gets it to 60 knots before weakening wind wise, which I think may be a wind resolution issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Noreaster 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Weak storm. It’ll feel like a typical noreaster 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Weak storm. It’ll feel like a typical noreaster There will be a very long fetch of wind off the Atlantic for a rather long time the center north and northeast is going to get significant coastal flooding, Gusty winds, plenty of fresh water flooding on top of oceanic flooding while it will be like a noreaster it is going to be a significant weather maker that will definitely be disruptive of course as modeled. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 The real story will be the coastal flooding, inland fresh water flooding and potential for severe weather along the mid-atlantic/northeast coasts. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 I reside almost, (On the sound) in Surf City.. Water temp(s) BEACH FRONT, are at 80F (depending where), here at Surf City it's @ 79.3 F...East/North East winds are already screaming, gust(s) up to 30MPH..Wind Average2 min ago NE 20 mph5 min ago NE 21 mph10 min ago NE 21 mph15 min ago NE 21 mph30 min ago NE 22 mph60 min ago NE 19 mphHaven't checked the tides yet,, though on Sloop Point Road, down by the Marsh Bridge, It's already being (almost), over topped.. (Mid-Tide).. It's already looking "Ugly" on the beach Strand.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1704927459810955461?s=46&t=FgOwSPUMVjK4yJ_POHuqkA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Almost every model now takes it from about 1010 mb at initiation to sub 1000 mb tomorrow at noon or so. It'll be interesting to see if it becomes vertically stacked overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 About to become Ophelia, TS could approach cat-1 intensity by 18z before landfall e NC, an over performer can be expected, I believe, in terms of rain, wind and surge, especially rain. Parts of VA and central MD, even se PA, n/c NJ could see flooding rainfalls of 6-10 inches. Axis of heavy rain RIC to IAD to 50eCXY to 30nw EWR ahead of and to west of advancing low center. Model QPF seems a bit displaced to east of where climatology suggests, along and just west of track of low. Slight tornadic risk Delmarva and s NJ on Saturday as storm becomes extratropical and fronts rotate around it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: About to become Ophelia, TS could approach cat-1 intensity by 18z before landfall e NC, an over performer can be expected, I believe, in terms of rain, wind and surge, especially rain. Parts of VA and central MD, even se PA, n/c NJ could see flooding rainfalls of 6-10 inches. Axis of heavy rain RIC to IAD to 50eCXY to 30nw EWR ahead of and to west of advancing low center. Model QPF seems a bit displaced to east of where climatology suggests, along and just west of track of low. Slight tornadic risk Delmarva and s NJ on Saturday as storm becomes extratropical and fronts rotate around it. Don't want no damage path of any type with this storm system , but we desperately need a steady soaking in the central Shenandoah Valley of VA .... 1.81 in my backyard since August 1st.... severe drought designation now by Noaa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 A lot of rain. That's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Well I hope the rain does more good than harm, but heavy rain on dry ground can run off faster too (as per desert southwest storms rapidly filling up dry washes and slot canyons). Would be wary of this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Pressure is really plummeting. Down to 996 based on buoy reports 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Looks to be acquiring TS appearance now, bet it is named at next report. Some chance of the eastern Atlantic invest being named today as well (next two names will be Ophelia and Philippe) so a slight chance of names being reversed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Dewpoints in the 50s across central NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Numerous buoy wind readings over 50 mph. Several reporting stations on land with sustained TS winds already with more reporting gusts to TS force. Pretty long duration event for parts of the sound will really work to drive up water levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Numerous buoy wind readings over 50 mph. Several reporting stations on land with sustained TS winds already with more reporting gusts to TS force. Pretty long duration event for parts of the sound will really work to drive up water levels. Which ones are already at sustained TS conditions? I aint denying it, I am just wondering where to find these stations. Also I posted in another thread but thought I would post here aswell, but maybe the beginning workings of a core? Here it is KLTX Kinda intrigued by the curve look. However, from satellite it seems the circulation is displaced to the south of this, so I am unsure. Thoughts would be appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 Haven’t seen a land reporting station gusting over 30 yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Haven’t seen a land reporting station gusting over 30 yet Cape Hatteras is gusting to 31 Beaufort Smith Field (KMRH) now gusting to 33 mph as well and Cherry Point to 37. Should pick up later this afternoon. Aso, Buoy off the coast of Carolina gusting to 62 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Haven’t seen a land reporting station gusting over 30 yet Beaufort is gusting to 41, Piney island gusting to 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 There has been a lot of discussion in whether or not this should be classified because it has a front attached to it. I’m wondering at what point would the NHC ignore this (let’s say if they find hurricane intensity winds eventually). Do you all think the NHC would ignore the frontal nature and just name it anyway for public awareness? Not saying that happens here but just as a discussion point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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