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TS Ophelia


GaWx
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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Agreed. Has some time to strengthen some. And she is looking much more robust now. 

Shorter window than you would think. It has a few more hours to play with the Gulf Stream before it hits the shallow shelf waters. Those waters were significantly upwelled during Lee.

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Correct me if I’m wrong but the waters Ophelia are in now we’re not really touched by Lee.  Lee’s wake is well east no?  In any event fantastic tropical transitioning going on, we are lucky to have it occur so close to land so it can be documented in radar

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9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Lee did not touch the waters Ophelia is in now, or about to enter. 

That’s not correct. Lee produced a large area of strong offshore winds all the way to the Carolina’s. Offshore winds created upwelling (I would need 10 pages to explain the process) it happened.

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19 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

78. This isn’t Florida. Lose the attitude.

that's rich after reading your last 10 posts in this thread. The storm is strengthening and it's clearly got tropical characteristics at this point.

You've been poo-pooing this like a 5 y/o who needs a nap since yesterday.

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Just now, TSG said:

that's rich after reading your last 10 posts in this thread

You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. 

 

Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5). 

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4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. 

 

Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5). 

Can you guys relax it’s not a big deal. Everyone has an opinion. Just no non-practical Debbie downer or hypecaster actions :) 

Has to be backed up with the facts

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10 minutes ago, mob1 said:

You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. 

 

Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5). 

SSTs offshore are well over 80

These two stations are roughly equidistant from the current center, NW and SE respectively. The GS is between those two so temps are likely even higher where the storm is. 

Frying Pan Shoals is now at 80.1, was at 81.7 just before midnight.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

83.8 at this buoy

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002
 

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2 minutes ago, TSG said:

SSTs offshore are well over 80

These two stations are roughly equidistant from the current center, NW and SE respectively. The GS is between those two so temps are likely even higher where the storm is. 

Frying Pan Shoals is now at 80.1, was at 81.7 just before midnight.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

83.8 at this buoy

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002
 

It's fine where it's now, we were discussing the shelf waters as it gets closer to the coast. 

 

Either way, should be a fairly steady state from now through landfall (might strengthen a bit in the next few hours but should weaken a bit as it approaches the coast). 

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13 minutes ago, mob1 said:

It's fine where it's now, we were discussing the shelf waters as it gets closer to the coast. 

 

Either way, should be a fairly steady state from now through landfall (might strengthen a bit in the next few hours but should weaken a bit as it approaches the coast). 

the 5-10 miles of cooler SSTs along the coast are not going to have much effect on how strong this is when it lands

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Not sure why so little interest in this. 
 

Convection now wrapping over the CoC. Very interesting 12 hours in play. 

 

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Agreed. Has some time to strengthen some. And she is looking much more robust now. 

 

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like there’s a decent amount of lightning with the convection West of the center.

Ophelia is right over the gulf stream right now. Water will not get any warmer than that for this time of year for where it is at. 

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The limiting factor here isn't really SSTs. Don't listen to certain unproductive posters on here crap on it because of that. The real limiting factor is dry air. The 12z hurricane models all have a skeletal type of hurricane, devoid of convection on the right side mainly, making landfall. This already can be seen in the current radar appearance, struggling with some convection on the east side.

b56df4b2a64b9a5cab5690a1b0ee1c9a.png

That being said it's constructing a legit core and I am really interested of where this goes over next several hours. I think 60-70 knots at landfall. 

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