Hurricane Nigel

[WxWatcher007]

There has been another strong signal for a long track MDR hurricane, and we’re starting to see TC genesis in the basin again.

Advisories are likely later today and 97L will almost certainly become Nigel this week. 

While everything else has bucked Niño climo this season, the prevalence of troughing/weak ridging to provide for MDR recurves has not. Future Nigel is likely only an interest to Bermuda.

Discuss.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Lee, located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on 
Hurricane Margot, located over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area 
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands 
have increased and become a little better organized since yesterday. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional 
development, and this system is likely to become a  tropical 
depression during the day or so while it moves west-northwestward to 
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. 

Forecaster Brown

 

[WxWatcher007]

Expected to become the fourth major of the season. 

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023

1-min GOES-East visible imagery indicates improved organization of 
Invest 97, with a well-defined surface center forming since 
sunrise, along with large curved banding features.  Thus the system 
is designated as a tropical depression, and the initial intensity 
is set to 30 kt, in closest agreement with the TAFB Dvorak 
classification.  

Our estimate of initial motion is northwestward at 10 kt, though 
this is uncertain due to the recent center formation.  A
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should be the dominant 
steering mechanism during the next several days, sending the system 
on a steady northwestward track.  For a first forecast, guidance is 
in remarkably good agreement, and the official forecast lies near 
or west of the model consensus.  Despite the good model agreement, 
there is still some long-range uncertainty in how far west this 
system moves, which partially depends on the strength of the 
subtropical ridge in the wake of Tropical Storm Margot. 

The depression is forecast to gradually intensify over the next 
couple of days as moderate northeasterly shear and the initial broad
cyclone structure could provide a check on the intensification 
rate.  By early next week, this system is forecast to move over 
near record warm sea-surface temperatures for the region in light 
shear conditions. It probably sounds like a broken record at this 
point in the season, but rapid intensification is a significant 
possibility, and the official forecast could be conservative below. 
The intensity forecast is near or above the intensity consensus, 
only leveling off at 120 hours due to gradual SST cooling and the 
possibility of eyewall replacement cycles, as suggested by the HAFS 
model suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 14.4N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 15.5N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 17.2N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 18.9N  47.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 20.5N  49.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 22.0N  51.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 23.4N  52.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 26.0N  56.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 29.0N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Churchill/Blake/Lamers

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Going to be our 4th major and likely another cat 4 if guidance is to be trusted. What a season 

[NJwx85]

50 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Going to be our 4th major and likely another cat 4 if guidance is to be trusted. What a season 

With zero chance of a US impact.

The end of the 00z Euro does have another MDR storm which would be in a more favorable spot to make it further West.

[nwohweather]

Definitely some worries for Bermuda here. The consistent active pattern in the CONUS has acted as a pretty good "block" for us here thankfully

[NoCORH4L]

Was hoping this would come right up my fanny..... oh well

[WxWatcher007]

45 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Was hoping this would come right up my fanny..... oh well

Never had a chance.

[Normandy]

The MDR is fools gold for landfalls this year.  Lee was the closest chance we had.  That being said this will continue train of cyclones kicking the Turkey shit out of El Niño

[WxWatcher007]

Struggling so far. If it doesn’t become a major that’d be huge for my peak season forecast lol. 

[Floydbuster]

This will be designated Tropical Storm Nigel at 11pm.

[LoboLeader1]

Hopefully it goes wide right OTS. Will we surpass 200 ACE points this hurricane season?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Lots of virgin warm water along its path. Recurve around 55 west. Should produce some swell for the east coast, but after Franklin and lee it will hardly be noticeable. 

[Chinook]

9 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Hopefully it goes wide right OTS. Will we surpass 200 ACE points this hurricane season?

Values above average for the main three areas are circled in red

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Getting “the look” this evening 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, Chinook said:

Values above average for the main three areas are circled in red

 

 

Everything above normal. Impressive. 

[NorthHillsWx]

It’s kind of an unconventional way (looks like it sucked in dry air vs unusual formation through subsidence) but Nigel definitely appears to be showing an eye this morning. Given the eye size and dry air in northern part of the circulation, RI should be limited. I think cat 3 is the ceiling here

[WxWatcher007]

RI forecast gone wrong. You just never know with these.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Ahhhh, the old truck tire 

[WxWatcher007]

Love the tractor tire hurricanes. Probably keeps this below MH status too. 

[hlcater]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Love the tractor tire hurricanes. Probably keeps this below MH status too. 

Idk that eye has cleared out considerably and cloud tops have continued to cool. Interested to see what the plane finds here shortly.

Has a shot at cat 3 over the next 24 hours or so imo.

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Idk that eye has cleared out considerably and cloud tops have continued to cool. Interested to see what the plane finds here shortly.

Has a shot at cat 3 over the next 24 hours or so imo.

Yeah it does have a shot. I have a rooting interest against it though lol. My peak forecast is spot on so far.

[NJwx85]

The eye has constricted some over the last few hours and outflow has improved. Looks like the dry air/shear issues are over and it's intensifying. 

[olafminesaw]

First pass suggests current intensity of 90mph is about right. Need to wait for it to sample the southern eyewall, but they got 75 kts in the northern eyewall

[NorthHillsWx]

Very pretty satellite. Obviously not a high end storm but great symmetry, outflow, and large eye 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Latest SHIPS has AHI of zero, not at all annular, but I see only outflow channels, not feeder bands.  If it could close the eyewall on the E side it would at least look annular.