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Central PA Autumn 2023


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Below is a analysis of our first freezes by decade here in Chester County from the 1890's to 2020's. The average first freeze date is October 24th since the move to over 650ft ASL and it was October 14th at the relatively lower elevations ~400 ft ASL prior to 1983. Looking ahead it appears our first chance at a below freezing day at least in the higher spots will be during the first few days of November. Although, we might see some frost in lower spots by Tuesday AM.image.png.ea3c2cee2cfced9e64206cd07f2f7708.png

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5 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Tack on .1" overnight and 48 degrees.    Pretty mild for late Oct. 

 

@mahantango#1 are your carpet and tile guys telling you what the models are showing for Wed-Sun.  Not necessarily all 5 days but different progs focus on 2-3 day periods. 

 

 

I haven't watched them for a few days.

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Next weekend looks warm. Pushing 80 across bunch of the PA and NY. We’re in NYC and I guess short sleeves are the game. Yuck! 

Verbatim model discussion only, some op progs show 80's around lunch and still rising.    Some records could be challenged if anything like that plays out.

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20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

41 this morning. Still have not reaches the 30s this season.

How often would you have an Oct with no 30's?  Stats wise MDT is exactly 2 AN right now.  That number seems likely to rise later this week with possibly 20-25 degree AN high temp deviations but will still not end up anywhere near Oct 2021 which was 6.6 AN (Canderon's 8 year.).  MDT's low in Oct 2021 was 43 which is also their low for this month at this point.  

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

How often would you have an Oct with no 30's?  Stats wise MDT is exactly 2 AN right now.  That number seems likely to rise later this week with possibly 20-25 degree AN deviations but will still not end up anywhere near Oct 2021 which was 6.6 AN (Canderon's 8 year.).  MDT's low in Oct 2021 was 43 which is also their low for this month at this point.  

Not often - I'd have to check my records when I'm home, but it's not many. First frost has certainly waited until November but I'd bet most of those years still featured October mornings in the mid to high 30s. 

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A beautiful weather week ahead with a possible frosty start for some spots tomorrow morning before a solid warming trend could see many spots reaching the low 70's by Thursday. The warm weather should continue through the weekend before turning much colder to close out the month as we move into November.
Records for today: High 85 (1947) / Low 22 (1969) / Rain 2.81" (1912)
image.png.15de7b4bd0d342efbf611c54f8243e3b.png
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3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 39 here.  A week sent from the heavens, ahead. 

Lowest car thermo went this am was 41. 

In last couple weeks, I've seen a couple hi 30's so far this year (37 being lowest so far on same thermo -for accuracy's sake....:lol:

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4 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

391578137_10160933157071506_479288061888029692_n.jpg?stp=dst-jpg_p280x280&_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5f2048&_nc_ohc=cOnBqvUEOdwAX80hIx8&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=00_AfC7EMZFfqB90ddfQGlXf9hoQAMQ5oI2AONWTDm3hr6b0g&oe=653B1290

Great stuff as usual.

 

On way home from the northwoods, Beautiful (and likely peak) from northwoods along rt 6 down to just above @pawatch in Perryville/Trout Run areas off rt 15.  Brilliant colors from Trout Run to Morris exit.  Was really great on the eyes.

Based on above, I'd guess this week will put you up to WSPT in the colorful crosshairs.  Enjoy.

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