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Central PA Autumn 2023


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Looks like last days
KMDT 82, 83
KCXY 86, 84

The only real difference in days is the wind today had an east component thus off the river for KCXY today and yesterday had more a west component, thus off the water for KCXY.

I swear a city these days needs like 5 measurements. One at airport, one by body of water, one in the middle of asphalt central, one in suburbs, one in closest farmland. Take average of all 5 of those for reading

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On 10/3/2023 at 4:04 PM, canderson said:

Yeah, basically I won't believe we'll get another good snowy winter until I am shoveling for the 5th time a season. I've not touched a snow shovel in 3 years. 

How about February 1st of 2021 when there was around a foot of snow region wide from a coastal low?

I think that I remember your disgust that the plows didn’t do a good job downtown with that Winter storm.

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12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

How about February 1st of 2021 when there was around a foot of snow region wide from a coastal low?

I think that I remember your disgust that the plows didn’t do a good job downtown with that Winter storm.

I think that is basically 3 years ago - I did not shovel during the winters of 2021-22 and 2022-23. This approaching winter is the 3rd since that storm. 

It's like referring to 2010 to 2020 as a 10 year period...it's actually 11. Sometimes that confuses me and I love numbers. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think that is basically 3 years ago - I did not shovel during the winters of 2021-22 and 2022-23. This approaching winter is 3 years since that storm. 

It's like referring to 2010 to 2020 as a 10 year period...it's actually 11. Sometimes that confuses me and I love numbers. 

Either way, I am looking forward to talking about “snow mows” in another month or two.

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7 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Had off today and did some mulching. Can definitely tell I'm still not well. 30 minutes of mulching made me feel like a train hit me. Maybe its compounded due to sun and heat not being good to mix with steroids, but it shocked me. Anyways, Sunday looks like a wonderful day. Taking my daughter with my brother, his wife, and my parents to the Renaissance Fair. It's been about 15 years since I went. Anyone here have any suggestions for what to see, eat, drink while there?

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My son just got married at the Mt. Hope Winery (part of the Ren Faire) on 9/16, and it was PACKED. 

Get her a turkey drumstick and have a blast.  Quite a few of the wedding guests said they were going back to partake in the festivities.  Enjoy.

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Temperatures was in the 80’s this week with 84 being my high.

Beautiful days!

Weekend sounds like it’s not going to be a lot of fun.

Rain over night Friday, with moderate winds for the weekend and turning colder.

Mowed the grass yesterday. Probably could have got mowed earlier, it was getting high. 

 

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Low of 51 this AM.   The diurnal temp range's this week are really nice compared to the sometimes under 20 range we get stuck in during some of the summer.   Had a 32 temp difference here yesterday.   MDT's was 26 from yesterday to this AM.    MDT sitting at a 10.5 AN departure as of this AM though like MJS and some other said, it will start getting chopped down quicky this weekend are the early part of next week. 

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Low of 51 this AM.   The diurnal temp range's this week are really nice compared to the sometimes under 20 range we get stuck in during some of the summer.   Had a 32 temp difference here yesterday.   MDT's was 26 from yesterday to this AM.    MDT sitting at a 10.5 AN departure as of this AM though like MJS and some other said, it will start getting chopped down quicky this weekend are the early part of next week. 

My guess is that October looks much like September with a 4 day heat wave (of sorts) that results in a near normal average month in an otherwise below normal/normal regime.

 

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36 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

My guess is that October looks much like September with a 4 day heat wave (of sorts) that results in a near normal average month in an otherwise below normal/normal regime.

 

Looking that way so far except I still think we see heat for a day or two next week.  Over 70 at least. 

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30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Looking that way so far except I still think we see heat for a day or two next week.  Over 70 at least. 

I'm sure we'll still see a few days AN, but averaging at or below. Still not feeling the 70's next week based on the ensembles.  If I  was a gentleman, I'd bet you. But alas, I am not.

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16 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Any signs of our first real Northeaster?

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Phillipe going by to our East could give those North and East of us some concerns....storm winds up in the mid-section or Low Miss next week (which is why I think we spike up for a bit) and the EC shows signs of a transfer such that New England would get Nor'Easter type effects.     If it were winter and cold, we would be watching models closely for next week.  

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Phillipe going by to our East could give those North and East of us some concerns....storm winds up in the mid-section or Low Miss next week (which is why I think we spike up for a bit) and the EC shows signs of a transfer such that New England would get Nor'Easter type effects.     If it were winter and cold, we would be watching models closely for next week.  
It's just so rare for a storm to get pulled in i.e. sandy

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22 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

It's just so rare for a storm to get pulled in i.e. sandy

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Seems like most modeling right now scoots it by fairly fast then loops it over Maine and pushes it well west into almost South Central Canada.   Nam and GFS have quite a nice area of snow associated with it. 

 

image.thumb.png.aa100779d2c03b23b809c2b33e532b63.png

 

 

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Seems like most modeling right now scoots it by fairly fast then loops it over Maine and pushes it well west into almost South Central Canada.   Nam and GFS have quite a nice area of snow associated with it. 
 
image.thumb.png.aa100779d2c03b23b809c2b33e532b63.png
 
 
Yeah, but we stay dry. Back into that boring dry Climo it seems

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6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Yeah, but we stay dry. Back into that boring dry Climo it seems

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I am hoping for a line of showers overnight Friday and after random showers through the day tomorrow.  The dew has been helping with the dry period (grass) but some rain would be nice.   Some mesos's have snow showers in WV Sunday AM. 

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I am hoping for a line of showers overnight Friday and after random showers through the day tomorrow.  The dew has been helping with the dry period (grass) but some rain would be nice.   Some mesos's have snow showers in WV Sunday AM. 
People tend to forget how much higher in elevation WV is compared to PA. They basically have an entire plateau higher than our highest peak. I'm guessing we have a cold upper low coming in behind front?

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7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

People tend to forget how much higher in elevation WV is compared to PA. They basically have an entire plateau higher than our highest peak. I'm guessing we have a cold upper low coming in behind front?

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The way the model radar looked, it was mostly upsloping wringing out the atmosphere.  Light, light showers. 

image.png.544f4177f8e8ee8bbeb9770d96e83ca7.pngimage.png.b1f0c7d2b587801bf4f58177afa9bedf.png

 

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