TheClimateChanger Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Syracuse Airport (SYR) is forecast to reach 88F tomorrow, which would tie the monthly record of 88F set on October 1, 2019. Posting here, due to lack of active upstate NY thread. Always worth noting potential monthly or all-time records IMO. Actually quite warm all across upstate New York. Looks like they are actually going to be warmer than most of the Commonwealth during this stretch. The forecast for Buffalo has 89F tomorrow, which would be the second hottest October day on record should it occur, and the hottest in nearly a century (all-time record: 92F, on 10/2/1927). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Syracuse Airport (SYR) is forecast to reach 88F tomorrow, which would tie the monthly record of 88F set on October 1, 2019. Posting here, due to lack of active upstate NY thread. Always worth noting potential monthly or all-time records IMO. I agree with you 100% on this as well...with the caveat that you're also going to share any and all record lows that might be set going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 On 9/22/2023 at 9:02 AM, Mount Joy Snowman said: Low of 48 here. We've knocked back the MDT +departure to 3 degrees now and should do a real number on it through the end of the month. In fact, I'll put myself out there and say we end with a mean temp of 69.4, which would put us at only 1.5 AN for the month and alone for 23rd place all time. Pretty remarkable given how the month started. Update: We ended up coming in at 69.2 for the month. The cold was a wee bit more potent than I anticipated. The two-tenths of a degree error is wildly unacceptable and I promise to do better in the future. This board deserves it. The citizens of this Commonwealth deserve it. On a less tongue in cheek note, I wonder if this month is going to be similar to last, in that it starts off with a scorcher of a week and then we slowly knock that back through the rest of the month with the majority of the days being on the cool side. A September repeat? Only the weather gods know for certain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 31 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Actually quite warm all across upstate New York. Looks like they are actually going to be warmer than most of the Commonwealth during this stretch. The forecast for Buffalo has 89F tomorrow, which would be the second hottest October day on record should it occur, and the hottest in nearly a century (all-time record: 92F, on 10/2/1927). Not at all about the climate discussion but the meso's I looked at appear to be just as warm here tomorrow as anywhere in NY. Highest of the models being Mid 80's LSV (maybe 90 at CXY). Maybe the NWS is forecasting above the progs? The map temps on the RGEM appear to show 85 in NY and 84 in PA for highs tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 24 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Update: We ended up coming in at 69.2 for the month. The cold was a wee bit more potent than I anticipated. The two-tenths of a degree error is wildly unacceptable and I promise to do better in the future. This board deserves it. The citizens of this Commonwealth deserve it. On a less tongue in cheek note, I wonder if this month is going to be similar to last, in that it starts off with a scorcher of a week and then we slowly knock that back through the rest of the month with the majority of the days being on the cool side. A September repeat? Only the weather gods know for certain. That was exactly what I questioned/theorized yesterday - will October follow the same pattern as it's predecessor? We'll know in 4 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Wundermap shows a handful of local therms pushing into the upper 80's now (Near Harrisburg, Lanco.) 82 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Really wondering what's going to happen for winter this season. The El Nino is not acting like a typical El Nino which is evident by the very active atlantic hurricane season. And it's not just the amount of storms formed but how many powerful long lasting storms have formed. Very unusual given the setup. Another thing to note is the absurd warming that started this summer in June and has been continuing into October with no signs of reverting. I saw a tweet discussing how the warmth occurring this summer is extraordinary because we usually see this type of extreme warming in the winter, not summer, because winters warm much more than summers do. Right now this heat occurring is almost off the charts which is most likely a combination of human induced climate change, Hunga Tonga and the El Nino all colliding at once among other smaller factors. If we end up having another snowless winter I'm going to be a bit concerned lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 New monthly maximum water temperature observed at the Buffalo water intake crib on Lake Erie. The water temperature reached 70F, both yesterday and today. This is the first time a water temperature of 70F has been observed in the month of October. Records date to 1927. Prior to the recent record, the highest daily readings are: 69F: October 1, 2023; October 1-2, 2016 68F: October 1-2, 2019; October 1, 2017; October 3-6, 2016; October 9-11, 2007; October 1, 1933; and October 1-5, 1931 Source: Lake Erie October Temperatures Buffalo (weather.gov) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 39 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Wundermap shows a handful of local therms pushing into the upper 80's now (Near Harrisburg, Lanco.) 82 here. Currently it's 82 at home. Also - this: Looking ahead into the upcoming weekend, our stretch of warm and tranquil weather is going to come to a screeching halt. A vigorous cold front will cross the Commonwealth on Saturday and bring several bands of showers to the region. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage, a few rumbles of thunder and wind gusts up to 40 mph could accompany the heaviest showers. Given the time of year, it would take an afternoon or early-evening frontal passage for these threats to materialize.. and that's certainly possible on Saturday! In the wake of the front, gusty, west-to-northwesterly winds will usher much cooler and drier air into the mid-Atlantic States for the second half of the weekend and start of next week. High temperatures may struggle to reach the low 60s both Sunday and Monday afternoons, and wind gusts up to 30 mph will give an added chill to the outdoor air. Overnight lows should be much closer to average early next week, or generally in the mid-to-upper 40s. Fortunately, I don't expect any rain to accompany the chillier conditions, but you'll still need to trade in this week's shorts and T-shirts for long pants and jackets. With a trough, or dip in the Jet Stream, and upper-level expected to linger over the Northeast and southeastern Canada through much of next week, don't expect a return of this week's unseasonable warmth through the end of next week. Temperatures should moderate slightly during the middle-to-latter part of next week, but highs probably won't exceed the 70-degree mark. Welcome to fall! -- Elliott 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: but you'll still need to trade in this week's shorts and T-shirts for long pants and jackets. As much as I like/respect him...I'm personally offended by this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Currently it's 82 at home. Also - this: Looking ahead into the upcoming weekend, our stretch of warm and tranquil weather is going to come to a screeching halt. A vigorous cold front will cross the Commonwealth on Saturday and bring several bands of showers to the region. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage, a few rumbles of thunder and wind gusts up to 40 mph could accompany the heaviest showers. Given the time of year, it would take an afternoon or early-evening frontal passage for these threats to materialize.. and that's certainly possible on Saturday! In the wake of the front, gusty, west-to-northwesterly winds will usher much cooler and drier air into the mid-Atlantic States for the second half of the weekend and start of next week. High temperatures may struggle to reach the low 60s both Sunday and Monday afternoons, and wind gusts up to 30 mph will give an added chill to the outdoor air. Overnight lows should be much closer to average early next week, or generally in the mid-to-upper 40s. Fortunately, I don't expect any rain to accompany the chillier conditions, but you'll still need to trade in this week's shorts and T-shirts for long pants and jackets. With a trough, or dip in the Jet Stream, and upper-level expected to linger over the Northeast and southeastern Canada through much of next week, don't expect a return of this week's unseasonable warmth through the end of next week. Temperatures should moderate slightly during the middle-to-latter part of next week, but highs probably won't exceed the 70-degree mark. Welcome to fall! -- Elliott The models showing 80's next week are indeed too far out to put too much stock in them. I would not want to bet on it not reaching 70 though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Really wondering what's going to happen for winter this season. The El Nino is not acting like a typical El Nino which is evident by the very active atlantic hurricane season. And it's not just the amount of storms formed but how many powerful long lasting storms have formed. Very unusual given the setup. Another thing to note is the absurd warming that started this summer in June and has been continuing into October with no signs of reverting. I saw a tweet discussing how the warmth occurring this summer is extraordinary because we usually see this type of extreme warming in the winter, not summer, because winters warm much more than summers do. Right now this heat occurring is almost off the charts which is most likely a combination of human induced climate change, Hunga Tonga and the El Nino all colliding at once among other smaller factors. If we end up having another snowless winter I'm going to be a bit concerned lol I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we're all going to be disappointed yet again this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, canderson said: I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we're all going to be disappointed yet again this winter. Why? Just a negative hunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Really wondering what's going to happen for winter this season. The El Nino is not acting like a typical El Nino which is evident by the very active atlantic hurricane season. And it's not just the amount of storms formed but how many powerful long lasting storms have formed. Very unusual given the setup. Another thing to note is the absurd warming that started this summer in June and has been continuing into October with no signs of reverting. I saw a tweet discussing how the warmth occurring this summer is extraordinary because we usually see this type of extreme warming in the winter, not summer, because winters warm much more than summers do. Right now this heat occurring is almost off the charts which is most likely a combination of human induced climate change, Hunga Tonga and the El Nino all colliding at once among other smaller factors. If we end up having another snowless winter I'm going to be a bit concerned lol As I enjoy the long lead stuff heading into winter (ENSO thread is a great source of ideas/input from some really talented gurus). They/some disagree and think it may be aoa peak. What does that mean to us....not sure yet, but this looks (below graphic copied from Tip), to be headed to a basin wide Nino and not just East based. Just another theory being tossed around in "our" circles. Unfortunatley the typical x/y correlations also may not apply or hold as much value, as our base state is one that we've not had much data sampling to match up to wrt the warming of mother earth. Time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Why? Just a negative hunch? Yeah, basically I won't believe we'll get another good snowy winter until I am shoveling for the 5th time a season. I've not touched a snow shovel in 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Just now, canderson said: Yeah, basically I won't believe we'll get another good snowy winter until I am shoveling for the 5th time a season. I've not touched a snow shovel in 3 years. Get ready you will need to this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Yeah, basically I won't believe we'll get another good snowy winter until I am shoveling for the 5th time a season. I've not touched a snow shovel in 3 years. I haven't either. I think we're going to do well this year. Also just a hunch with a positive spin because; well, I'm 58 years old and have never gone this long without shoveling. We're due. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 For all of the baseball fans, here's a shocker! https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/umpire-angel-hernandez-finishes-regular-season-with-worst-rating-in-mlb 161 missed calls in 10 games? That's big league stuff right there! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: For all of the baseball fans, here's a shocker! https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/umpire-angel-hernandez-finishes-regular-season-with-worst-rating-in-mlb 161 missed calls in 10 games? That's big league stuff right there! It’s a crime he has a job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 I keep saying. In world football, referees are suspended multiple matches for being dogshit. The umpires union is a fucking criminal organization. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 For all of the baseball fans, here's a shocker!https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/umpire-angel-hernandez-finishes-regular-season-with-worst-rating-in-mlb 161 missed calls in 10 games? That's big league stuff right there! Almost one whole season's worth of mulligans in just ten games. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Angel might be trolling all the people who do well at their jobs....he makes 300-500K a year. Bugs are terrible out right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Angel might be trolling all the people who do well at their jobs....he makes 300-500K a year. Bugs are terrible out right now. Shit. I didn't think of him this morning when saying there's no way trolls make money. We also elect them into office on one side of the aisle. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 17 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Shit. I didn't think of him this morning when saying there's no way trolls make money. We also elect them into office on one side of the aisle. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk And Angel has been an ump since 1993. He has surely made 10 plus million at this point. 30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 And Angel has been an ump since 1993. He has surely made 10 plus million at this point. 30 years. On top of any other hustle. I don't know if MLB umpires have other income sources but the Hochulator is a lawyer on top of a now-retired NFL referee and three-time Mr. Phoenix Gymroom.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Shit. I didn't think of him this morning when saying there's no way trolls make money. We also elect them into office on one side of the aisle. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using TapatalkWith the current referee shortage in all sports because of parents I'm going to focus on basketball referee. I had no issue throwing out multiple parents when I was 18 the field is now perfect for me to go on a tear. If someone gets shot by a parent I would bet 3-1 it's going to be me because I don't put up with shit. I get pleasure at putting these idiots in place. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: With the current referee shortage in all sports because of parents I'm going to focus on basketball referee. I had no issue throwing out multiple parents when I was 18 the field is now perfect for me to go on a tear. If someone gets shot by a parent I would bet 3-1 it's going to be me because I don't put up with shit. I get pleasure at putting these idiots in place. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Here is to you not getting shot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 4 hours ago, pasnownut said: As I enjoy the long lead stuff heading into winter (ENSO thread is a great source of ideas/input from some really talented gurus). They/some disagree and think it may be aoa peak. What does that mean to us....not sure yet, but this looks (below graphic copied from Tip), to be headed to a basin wide Nino and not just East based. Just another theory being tossed around in "our" circles. Unfortunatley the typical x/y correlations also may not apply or hold as much value, as our base state is one that we've not had much data sampling to match up to wrt the warming of mother earth. Time will tell. I’ll take my chances with a moderate El Niño this Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Congrats to the Twins for wining their first playoff game since 2004. 21 straight losses and most all to the Yankees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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