Central PA Autumn 2023

[TheClimateChanger]

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

What were the temperatures like 500 or 1000 years ago in these locations? 

Determining specific temperature records for southeast Pennsylvania from 1000 years ago (around the year 1023) is extremely challenging because there were no direct temperature measurements or climate records during that time. To estimate past climate conditions, scientists rely on various proxies and historical data sources, such as tree rings, ice cores, sediment layers, and historical documents.

Based on these sources and general climate knowledge, we can make some broad inferences about what temperatures might have been like in southeast Pennsylvania around 1000 years ago:

Medieval Warm Period: Around 1000 years ago, the Earth experienced a period known as the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted from approximately the 9th to the 13th century. During this period, temperatures in various parts of the world, including Europe and North America, are believed to have been warmer than during the subsequent Little Ice Age (which occurred roughly from the 14th to the mid-19th century).

Regional Variability: Climate conditions during the Medieval Warm Period were not uniform across the globe or even within regions. Some areas may have experienced more significant warming than others, and regional variations in temperature and climate patterns were common.

Warmer Winters and Milder Conditions: Generally, the Medieval Warm Period was characterized by milder winters and longer growing seasons compared to the subsequent Little Ice Age. This could have had implications for agriculture and settlement patterns in southeast Pennsylvania.

It's important to emphasize that our understanding of past climate conditions is based on various indirect sources and reconstructions. Specific temperature data for southeast Pennsylvania during that period would require more detailed research and analysis by climate scientists, using localized proxies and historical records. These studies can provide a better understanding of regional climate variations during the Medieval Warm Period and other historical periods.

[Blizzard of 93]

@TheClimateChanger

Thanks for the detailed responses.

We all have much to learn about the past & future of our ever evolving climate.

In the meantime, I’m looking forward to tracking the upcoming Winter weather season with everyone.

[TimB]

45 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT average high temperature for September averaged only +.2 above normal, despite the early month heat wave.

The overnight low average temperature of +2.3 was the main contributor to the slightly above average month of September, which overall only ended up +1.3 at MDT.

 

You can’t just toss overnight low temperatures because you don’t like what they do to the averages. Sorry, but you just can’t. There is no logical reason to do so.

[TimB]

40 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Determining specific temperature records for southeast Pennsylvania from 1000 years ago (around the year 1023) is extremely challenging because there were no direct temperature measurements or climate records during that time. To estimate past climate conditions, scientists rely on various proxies and historical data sources, such as tree rings, ice cores, sediment layers, and historical documents.

Based on these sources and general climate knowledge, we can make some broad inferences about what temperatures might have been like in southeast Pennsylvania around 1000 years ago:

Medieval Warm Period: Around 1000 years ago, the Earth experienced a period known as the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted from approximately the 9th to the 13th century. During this period, temperatures in various parts of the world, including Europe and North America, are believed to have been warmer than during the subsequent Little Ice Age (which occurred roughly from the 14th to the mid-19th century).

Regional Variability: Climate conditions during the Medieval Warm Period were not uniform across the globe or even within regions. Some areas may have experienced more significant warming than others, and regional variations in temperature and climate patterns were common.

Warmer Winters and Milder Conditions: Generally, the Medieval Warm Period was characterized by milder winters and longer growing seasons compared to the subsequent Little Ice Age. This could have had implications for agriculture and settlement patterns in southeast Pennsylvania.

It's important to emphasize that our understanding of past climate conditions is based on various indirect sources and reconstructions. Specific temperature data for southeast Pennsylvania during that period would require more detailed research and analysis by climate scientists, using localized proxies and historical records. These studies can provide a better understanding of regional climate variations during the Medieval Warm Period and other historical periods.

This really, really looks like something out of ChatGPT.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

You can’t just toss overnight low temperatures because you don’t like what they do to the averages. Sorry, but you just can’t. There is no logical reason to do so.

Lol, I didn’t “toss” anything, just pointing out the contributing factors as to what drove the numbers.

Sorry (not sorry) for all of the details.

[Blizzard of 93]

48 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It was also remarkable just how consistently cool the second half of September was at MDT.

17 days out of the month of September had below normal average daily temperatures at MDT.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

50 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT average high temperature for September averaged only +.2 above normal, despite the early month heat wave.

The overnight low average temperature of +2.3 was the main contributor to the slightly above average month of September, which overall only ended up +1.3 at MDT.

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

20 minutes ago, TimB said:

You can’t just toss overnight low temperatures because you don’t like what they do to the averages. Sorry, but you just can’t. There is no logical reason to do so.

Tim, this is a great point and admittedly I've been of the opinion that the lows don't matter as much to me since I'm typically not doing much outdoors overnight.

Having said that- overnight lows absolutely matter way more than my own personal comfort level. I don't want you to think that I don't understand that.

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Tim, this is a great point and admittedly I've been of the opinion that the lows don't matter as much to me since I'm typically not doing much outdoors overnight.

Having said that- overnight lows absolutely matter way more than my own personal comfort level. I don't want you to think that I don't understand that.

All jokes aside, MDT’s lows are ridiculous and I don’t fully understand why it doesn’t get cold there because I don’t know the geography there.

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Tim, this is a great point and admittedly I've been of the opinion that the lows don't matter as much to me since I'm typically not doing much outdoors overnight.

Having said that- overnight lows absolutely matter way more than my own personal comfort level. I don't want you to think that I don't understand that.

I think much of the talk about lows before centered around John Q. Opinionated Weather Public that relies more on highs to gauge how a summer feels.  

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

All jokes aside, MDT’s lows are ridiculous and I don’t fully understand why it doesn’t get cold there because I don’t know the geography there.

And it is not just MDT.  It is many of the posters around the Capitol Beltway.

[Jns2183]

Tim, this is a great point and admittedly I've been of the opinion that the lows don't matter as much to me since I'm typically not doing much outdoors overnight.
Having said that- overnight lows absolutely matter way more than my own personal comfort level. I don't want you to think that I don't understand that.

I think my comment about lows not counting is being taken out of context some. I of course believe that lows, highs everything matters for record keeping. What I was trying to do is bridge, what at times, seems an enormous gulf between perception of a "hot summer, cold winter, etc", and the actual measurements. It just appeared to me that people weight temperatures at different part of the day differently according to season, and use that as an anchor in their memory for that season.

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[Voyager]

59 degrees here in AZ this morning... 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Voyager said:

59 degrees here in AZ this morning... 

It's a dry cold. 

[Jns2183]

59 degrees here in AZ this morning... 

Think KMDT might have been the same for a low.
Not looking forward to baking at 85

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[Itstrainingtime]

10 hours ago, TimB said:

All jokes aside, MDT’s lows are ridiculous and I don’t fully understand why it doesn’t get cold there because I don’t know the geography there.

One of the biggest factors is water - the airport literally sits adjacent to the Susquehanna. I'm located about 1.5 miles from the river, and my drive to work is almost entirely along the river. I'll watch my car thermometer start to rise in the fall and winter as I approach the river and it's somewhat warmer influence. Conversely, in the spring it's often cooler along the river on warmer days. 

Having said that, the river doesn't explain all of it. There has to be something else. 

[Itstrainingtime]

@TimB -CXY is notoriously the warmest location in the LSV and ironically, it also sits immediately adjacent to the Susquehanna, but it's on the west side of the river and with the prevailing wind direction, it would not be influenced by the water. 

[WmsptWx]

It's a dry cold. 

Shut up

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[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Shut up

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I am not like your Amish dates. 

[pasnownut]

45 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I think my comment about lows not counting is being taken out of context some. I of course believe that lows, highs everything matters for record keeping. What I was trying to do is bridge, what at times, seems an enormous gulf between perception of a "hot summer, cold winter, etc", and the actual measurements. It just appeared to me that people weight temperatures at different part of the day differently according to season, and use that as an anchor in their memory for that season.

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Most of us knew what you were doing.  No worries.  

Blizz wasnt discounting the overnight "mins" either.  We're better than that.

[canderson]

My theory on high overnight lows is the atmosphere is trapping heat due to trucks/concrete/water vapor. Inland high lows is a thing most places, but I think it's spread around here a bit more because of those reasons. 

[ChescoWx]

Happy Red October to those who celebrate! The Phillies should have perfect unseasonably warm weather. Weather wise we are very similar to exactly 16 years ago today back in 2007 when the Phillies played their 1st post season game since 1993. For those 2 games at home high temps in Philly were in the 80's. Here in East Nantmeal we recorded highs of 78.6 and 79.6 on the 3rd and 4th. Hopefully the results are different as the Phillies were swept in 3 games by the Rockies.

Our Indian Summer weather should continue through the week before a sharp turn to well below normal by the weekend. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday may not escape the mid-50's.

Records for today: High 91 (1919) / Low 26 (1899) / Rain 1.21" (1985) GO PHILLIES!

[WmsptWx]

I am not like your Amish dates. 

No, and if you were i'd tie your arms and legs to horses and make them pull in opposite directions like I did with the last five Dutch broads in Willow Hill.

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[paweather]

3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Happy Red October to those who celebrate! The Phillies should have perfect unseasonably warm weather. Weather wise we are very similar to exactly 16 years ago today back in 2007 when the Phillies played their 1st post season game since 1993. For those 2 games at home high temps in Philly were in the 80's. Here in East Nantmeal we recorded highs of 78.6 and 79.6 on the 3rd and 4th. Hopefully the results are different as the Phillies were swept in 3 games by the Rockies.

Our Indian Summer weather should continue through the week before a sharp turn to well below normal by the weekend. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday may not escape the mid-50's.

Records for today: High 91 (1919) / Low 26 (1899) / Rain 1.21" (1985) GO PHILLIES!

 

[Jns2183]

No, and if you were i'd tie your arms and legs to horses and make them pull in opposite directions like I did with the last five Dutch broads in Willow Hill.

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Are goats before or after?

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[WmsptWx]

Are goats before or after?

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Both

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[TimB]

And there it is. October 3rd and nothing even close to a frost having been observed yet, the term “Indian summer” gets thrown out there. 

[WmsptWx]

Yeah, you racists. It's "Indigenous Person's Summer." It's twenty twenty-three, climb out of your holes with this shit.

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[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, TimB said:

And there it is. October 3rd and nothing even close to a frost having been observed yet, the term “Indian summer” gets thrown out there. 

It depends on which definition you personally like - I was going to use the term in a post yesterday but stopped myself for the same reason you alluded to; however,

Weather historian William R. Deedler wrote that "Indian summer" can be defined as "any spell of warm, quiet, hazy weather that may occur in October or November,"

[pasnownut]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

It depends on whose definition - I was going to use the term in a post yesterday but stopped myself for the same reason you alluded to; however,

Weather historian William R. Deedler wrote that "Indian summer" can be defined as "any spell of warm, quiet, hazy weather that may occur in October or November,"

yeah that (like most things) is found in a 5 second search of it on google.

Its totally appropriate no matter how his feelings get hurt.

So glad he's here to keep things straight though.....

 

waits for the .....lol