Central PA Autumn 2023

[canderson]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

I've mowed maybe five times. I will again on Wednesday. It's needed it for about three weeks but I haven't had the time.

Maybe I can hire an Amish dude to do it and then stiff him on the pay.

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Steal a goat. Problem solved AND message sent. 

[WmsptWx]

My neighbors to the left would eat the goat.
My neighbors on the right would fuck it.

Here I am, stuck in the middle with grass.

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[sauss06]

26 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

My neighbors to the left would eat the goat.
My neighbors on the right would fuck it.

Here I am, stuck in the middle with grass.

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I laughed to hard at this 

 

75 and sunny

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

My neighbors to the left would eat the goat.
My neighbors on the right would fuck it.

Here I am, stuck in the middle with grass.

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Just don't bend over to pet the goat.

[Bubbler86]

Made it to 78 here but has fallen back to 76. 

[paweather]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Made it to 78 here but has fallen back to 76. 

79 here waiting for the Fall weather return.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 10/1/2023 at 11:50 AM, ChescoWx said:

Well we finished September at near to below normal temperatures at all Chester County locations with the exception of the Glenmoore coop station - which recorded one of their warmest Septembers on record.

Of the 5 COOP locations only Glenmoore finished well above normal with an average temperature of 68.4 which is +1.6 degrees above the 30 year average for the month. This was also the 19th warmest September at Glenmoore across 67 years of data. Both KPTW Pottstown 65.5 degrees finished at -0.8 below normal and Phoenixville 66.6 degrees (0.7) finished with below normal temperatures good for 65th chilliest at Phoenixville with 131 years of data and 10th chilliest at KPTW with 25 years of records. Both KMQS Coatesville 67.1 +0.3 and here in East Nantmeal 65.4 +0.02 finished with slightly above normal temps with KMQS recording their 8th warmest September with 16 years of records and EN recording their 62nd warmest September with 130 years of records.

The week ahead looks great with well above temps....we could in fact reach 80 degrees across some lower spots of the county for the last time this year on Wednesday. Much cooler weather returns by next weekend.

Community Notes: The official, first-order NWS sites nearest western Chester County all show September 2023 as well above the long-term median.

Hagerstown, MD (27th warmest out of 125 years)

Harrisburg, PA (24th warmest out of 136 years)

 

Reading, PA (27th warmest out of 128 years)

Baltimore, MD (21st warmest out of 152 years)

Philadelphia, PA (23rd warmest out of 150 years)

Wilmington, DE (31st warmest out of 110 years)

[Yardstickgozinya]

Our office is part of the National Weather Service, which is an agency in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA itself is part of the Department of Commerce, a branch of the federal government. The NWS is the world's largest weather organization, employing approximately 4,700 personnel.

[Yardstickgozinya]

We all know how honest federal government agencies are. They certainly don't have any agendas. 

[Itstrainingtime]

September data is in from Lancaster (MU):

MU Weather Center

 

Due in large part to the early-month #heatwave, aggregate temps in #September2023 were nearly 2.5F above avg at

@millersvilleu

. Despite rainfall of 6.15” on the month, we’re still facing a yearly deficit of nearly 7”! This is a big reason why the Drought Watch is still in effect.

[canderson]

It's 80 here at 3:15.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

September data is in from Lancaster (MU):

MU Weather Center

 

Due in large part to the early-month #heatwave, aggregate temps in #September2023 were nearly 2.5F above avg at

@millersvilleu

. Despite rainfall of 6.15” on the month, we’re still facing a yearly deficit of nearly 7”! This is a big reason why the Drought Watch is still in effect.

We are at 19.5" of rain for the year here giving us double digit deficits still using MDT's numbers.    Now the question....is this current week a heatwave or no?  :-) 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We are at 19.5" of rain for the year here giving us double digit deficits still using MDT's numbers.    Now the question....is this current week a heatwave or no?  :-) 

It feels like one to me. Very scientific, I know. LOL

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

It's 80 here at 3:15.

Same at home. 1 degree higher than yesterday. 

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It feels like one to me. Very scientific, I know. LOL

Could be 10-20 degrees AN for a large area for 4-6 days straight...although MDT may only make 9 AN today.   Cxy is proudly 12 AN.  

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Community Notes: The official, first-order NWS sites nearest western Chester County all show September 2023 as well above the long-term median.

Hagerstown, MD (27th warmest out of 125 years)

Harrisburg, PA (24th warmest out of 136 years)

 

Reading, PA (27th warmest out of 128 years)

Baltimore, MD (21st warmest out of 152 years)

Philadelphia, PA (23rd warmest out of 150 years)

Wilmington, DE (31st warmest out of 110 years)

Way above normal?

Harrisburg was +1.3

Hagerstown was +.1

Baltimore was +2.7

Philly was +1.5

Wilmington was +.5

Reading was +1.6

Those are nbd AN temps.

He's close to Allentown.  Closer than Bwi. So why didn't you pick that one???? Oh, I  see, it was -.5.

 

EDIT: I forgot to mention, there was 1 anomolous heat wave of 4 days. The rest of the month in all locations was BN on average.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

We are at 19.5" of rain for the year here giving us double digit deficits still using MDT's numbers.    Now the question....is this current week a heatwave or no?  :-) 

Your year to date rainfall total is about 5" higher than NYC saw in September alone. 
 

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Way above normal?

Harrisburg was +1.3

Hagerstown was +.1

Baltimore was +2.7

Philly was +1.5

Wilmington was +.5

Reading was +1.6

Those are nbd AN temps.

He's close to Allentown.  Closer than Bwi. So why didn't you pick that one???? Oh, I  see, it was -.5.

 

EDIT: I forgot to mention, there was 1 anomolous heat wave of 4 days. The rest of the month in all locations was BN on average.

Lancaster would probably be the closest to Paul - September finished 2.43 AN...however, 15 days featured BN highs, 14 days were AN, and one day was right on the normal high. That early stretch made all the difference. (and it might repeat itself here in October) 

Granted, I only used high temps in my above analysis. 

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Your year to date rainfall total is about 5" higher than NYC saw in September alone. 
 

And I am about 1/2" higher than Dry Gulch HGR.

[paweather]

Phillies should have a nice 3 days of spring weather and then fall comes back!

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Way above normal?

Harrisburg was +1.3

Hagerstown was +.1

Baltimore was +2.7

Philly was +1.5

Wilmington was +.5

Reading was +1.6

Those are nbd AN temps.

He's close to Allentown.  Closer than Bwi. So why didn't you pick that one???? Oh, I  see, it was -.5.

 

EDIT: I forgot to mention, there was 1 anomolous heat wave of 4 days. The rest of the month in all locations was BN on average.

I didn't claim it was "way above normal." I said it was well above the median of all years, which it was. Here is ABE:

37th warmest, of 101 years. So a bit of a cool outlier, but, indeed, still above the median, which would be 50th/51st place. Sorry, if the "community notes" aren't appreciated, but I'm a big fan of that feature on X. I think providing useful context to any post that might be misleading is a good thing. Better than simply saying "lol", no?

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I didn't claim it was "way above normal." I said it was well above the median of all years, which it was. Here is ABE:

37th warmest, of 101 years. So a bit of a cool outlier, but, indeed, still above the median, which would be 50th/51st place. Sorry, if the "community notes" aren't appreciated, but I'm a big fan of that feature on X. I think providing useful context to any post that might be misleading is a good thing. Better than simply saying "lol", no?

 

You miss the point. Chesaco said temps across his area were normal to below average in his COUNTY except for 1 location. You then start puling figures from locations 50-75+ miles away from Chester County with different elevations and proximity to large bodies of water. But he wasn't talking about any areas outside Chester County.

But it gets worse. You obviously feel irresistibly compelled to dispute his statement of normal to a little below. So you change the discussion to median. Why? It's obvious to me. You're disseminating mundane information in a dramatic fashion to try to make it appear warmer than it really was.  If your opinion is so correct, then you don't need to make things look warmer/dire. 

It was an average September temp-wise in Chester County, PA.  Period! Can't it ever be that simple?

[TimB]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You miss the point. Chesaco said temps across his area were normal to below average in his COUNTY except for 1 location. You then start puling figures from locations 50-75+ miles away from Chester County with different elevations and proximity to large bodies of water. But he wasn't talking about any areas outside Chester County.

But it gets worse. You obviously feel irresistibly compelled to dispute his statement of normal to a little below. So you change the discussion to median. Why? It's obvious to me. You're disseminating mundane information in a dramatic fashion to try to make it appear warmer than it really was.  If you opinion is so correct, then you don't need to make things look warmer/dire. 

It was an average September temp-wise in Chester County, PA.  Period! Can't it ever be that simple?

He has his weather station set up in a children’s playground with an air conditioner blowing on it. Of course it’s going to be below normal most days.

[Jns2183]

He has his weather station set up in a children’s playground with an air conditioner blowing on it. Of course it’s going to be below normal most days.

It wasn't just him though

I thought the one lesson we would learn this summer with @Bubbler86 was there can be even extreme variations within a small radius with all kinds of weather.

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[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

It wasn't just him though

I thought the one lesson we would learn this summer with @Bubbler86 was there can be even extreme variations within a small radius with all kinds of weather.

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You have said this a few times but remember, areas to my south and west were as or more extreme than me, so I think I was on the northern edge of the worst part of the drought.    

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Way above normal?

Harrisburg was +1.3

Hagerstown was +.1

Baltimore was +2.7

Philly was +1.5

Wilmington was +.5

Reading was +1.6

Those are nbd AN temps.

He's close to Allentown.  Closer than Bwi. So why didn't you pick that one???? Oh, I  see, it was -.5.

 

EDIT: I forgot to mention, there was 1 anomolous heat wave of 4 days. The rest of the month in all locations was BN on average.

Post of the day! Thank you!

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I didn't claim it was "way above normal." I said it was well above the median of all years, which it was. Here is ABE:

37th warmest, of 101 years. So a bit of a cool outlier, but, indeed, still above the median, which would be 50th/51st place. Sorry, if the "community notes" aren't appreciated, but I'm a big fan of that feature on X. I think providing useful context to any post that might be misleading is a good thing. Better than simply saying "lol", no?

 

What were the temperatures like 500 or 1000 years ago in these locations? 

[Blizzard of 93]

MDT average high temperature for September averaged only +.2 above normal, despite the early month heat wave.

The overnight low average temperature of +2.3 was the main contributor to the slightly above average month of September, which overall only ended up +1.3 at MDT.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

It was also remarkable just how consistently cool the second half of September was at MDT.

17 days out of the month of September had below normal average daily temperatures at MDT.

[TheClimateChanger]

21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

What were the temperatures like 500 or 1000 years ago in these locations? 

Determining the exact temperatures in a specific region like southeast Pennsylvania 500 years ago is challenging because we don't have direct temperature records dating back that far. To estimate past climate conditions, scientists rely on a variety of proxies and historical data sources, such as tree rings, ice cores, sediment layers, and historical documents.

Based on these sources, we can make some general inferences about the climate in southeast Pennsylvania around 500 years ago, which would be approximately in the early 16th century (around 1523-1524). During this time period, the Earth was in a period known as the Little Ice Age, which lasted roughly from the 14th to the mid-19th century. This period was characterized by cooler temperatures compared to the present day.

In southeast Pennsylvania during the Little Ice Age, you might expect:

1. Colder Winters: Winters were generally colder and more severe, with more frequent snowfall and ice.

2. Shorter Growing Seasons: The growing seasons for crops would have been shorter due to cooler temperatures, potentially impacting agriculture.

3. Glacial Activity: Some evidence suggests that glaciers in North America, including the nearby Appalachian Mountains, may have advanced during this time.

4. Climate Variability: The Little Ice Age was not a consistent period of unchanging cold; it had periods of colder and milder temperatures, with regional variations.

It's important to note that the climate during this time was not uniform across the entire 500-year span, and there would have been natural variability from year to year. To get more precise temperature data or climate reconstructions for southeast Pennsylvania during that period, you would need to consult specific research studies and climate reconstructions that focus on the region. Climate scientists use various methods and proxies to estimate past temperatures, and these studies can provide more detailed insights into historical climate conditions.