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Central PA Autumn 2023


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3 hours ago, sauss06 said:

I'm out fellas. Heading for some new ink. If i don't get a chance to check in later............enjoy the beach, the whiteout game, the mountain walks, and a hot hairy date in inner harbor 

New ink? I'm contemplating that myself. I want to cover up a 30 year old dragon and skull with a half sleeve. Not sure what to get, and am definitely concerned about cost...

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3 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I expect there to be alot of spectators and participants with video cameras .  I doubt I will be alone. It always smells of fish and seaweed every time I go down. It's hard to compete with all the guys and there big scooters. I wounder how they handle in such sloppy conditions. 

But how's it smell at the Inner Harbor?

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So current pressure is 986mb and dropping. Looking at mesos and model they all almost initiate and don't drop below 995mb. The NAM drops down to 989mb 8 hours from now. So what happens if this thing makes landfall in the upper 970's or low 980's, which now seems very very likely. That's a 15mb+ difference between ground truth vs models. It seems the the models with stronger LP drove in further west and were slower a day or two ago. Not sure if that still is the same. Regardless. These models are initiationing with pressure significantly higher than reality.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

First picture is the 18z hurricane model tracks

2nd is a multi model mean (EPS + GEFS + UKMET + CMC).
Yellow is 9/21 @0Z
Red is 9/21 @12Z
Purple is 9/22 @0Z
Black is NWS forcast trackAL162023_models.jpgtrend.jpg

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I thought the gfs was suggesting Ophelia comes back next weekend....In relation to this plot showing it diving south.  

 

Just came back in....the sea is angry my friends. 

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18 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

So current pressure is 986mb and dropping. Looking at mesos and model they all almost initiate and don't drop below 995mb. The NAM drops down to 989mb 8 hours from now. So what happens if this thing makes landfall in the upper 970's or low 980's, which now seems very very likely. That's a 15mb+ difference between ground truth vs models. It seems the the models with stronger LP drove in further west and were slower a day or two ago. Not sure if that still is the same. Regardless. These models are initiationing with pressure significantly higher than reality.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

For what it's worth, DT did mention the possibility of her crossing the hurricane threshold immediately prior to landfall.

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