Central PA Autumn 2023

[pasnownut]

so....back to weather, cause he's right...its the only weather we've got.

HH GFS came south w/ 500's and 528 sittin over us as precip breaks out in western pa.  Next panel...she's gone.  Southern slider kinda gone.  

At least some majors are showing the vort and CMC not too dissimilar in how surface looks. Icon looks like it hit the happy juice a bit early and is a notably north of others. Just gotta hope the storm stays on Ops, then MAYBE just MAYBE we get a shot at some fun.

TTFN  Takin wife out for some grub.  

 

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

-.1°

Thanks, I have too many typos. 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Theres a politics forum if you want to post about that, especially when the members here have asked you to cut the shit. Enough, i have to babysit my own forum. Not doing it here too. 

Perhaps it's time to add one of the fine folks here as a moderator. We had one before, why not again?

[BxEngine]

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

Then don't. If you're somebody who has the ability to bestow somebody janitor status here, I think we would appreciate that happening.

If not, then feel free to stay within your own playpen.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Nah, im good. Thanks. 

[Bubbler86]

Some (or all) of the LSV zones simply say chance of snow for Wed.  Back before models being visible on the internet, that was always the first sign of a chance of something brewing whether it materializes or not.  

[MAG5035]

There’s definitely an opportunity to be had for the system progged near mid week next week. Coming on the heels of the stronger Sun/Mon system that resets the cold for a few days and a pretty decent -NAO block, there’s a good chance this northern branch feature is forced to track it’s low below PA.. which is a good start to getting any kind of meaningful flakes beyond western PA and the Laurels into the Sus Valley when it comes to clippers/clipper-like systems. 

Most modeling and ensembles have this feature, so strength and track of the feature are going to be the big thing. Today’s 12z GFS version is definitely more ideal, having a more defined and stronger surface low that tracks under PA which yields a better snow swath. A weaker feature going south of PA would still have some of the same issues with precip surviving east of the Alleghenies. A stronger one like the 12z GFS would establish some Atlantic fetch with the low hitting the coast, maintaining a swath into the Sus Valley and/or points south of there. 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

-.1°

Below normal is below normal!

We certainly would hear about it if we were any amount above normal…

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

so....back to weather, cause he's right...its the only weather we've got.

HH GFS came south w/ 500's and 528 sittin over us as precip breaks out in western pa.  Next panel...she's gone.  Southern slider kinda gone.  

At least some majors are showing the vort and CMC not too dissimilar in how surface looks. Icon looks like it hit the happy juice a bit early and is a notably north of others. Just gotta hope the storm stays on Ops, then MAYBE just MAYBE we get a shot at some fun.

TTFN  Takin wife out for some grub.  

 

I am happy to just be tracking a chance for next week.
Maybe we can get our first Advisory level event if all goes well?

[ChescoWx]

We finished November as our 4th below average temperature month in the last 7 months. This followed the above normal 1st 4 months of 2023. Of note through the first 11 months of the year our average temperature has been 54.6 degrees. This is the 10th coldest year in the last 20 years here in East Nantmeal and the 46th warmest November YTD since records began 130 years ago in 1894. The Top 10 warmest years through November Year to Date were:

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

We finished November as our 4th below average temperature month in the last 7 months. This followed the above normal 1st 4 months of 2023. Of note through the first 11 months of the year our average temperature has been 54.6 degrees. This is the 10th coldest year in the last 20 years here in East Nantmeal and the 46th warmest November YTD since records began 130 years ago in 1894. The Top 10 warmest years through November Year to Date were:

Wow, you mean to tell me that there were warm years over 100 years ago?

Lol, how is that possible?

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

There’s definitely an opportunity to be had for the system progged near mid week next week. Coming on the heels of the stronger Sun/Mon system that resets the cold for a few days and a pretty decent -NAO block, there’s a good chance this northern branch feature is forced to track it’s low below PA.. which is a good start to getting any kind of meaningful flakes beyond western PA and the Laurels into the Sus Valley when it comes to clippers/clipper-like systems. 

Most modeling and ensembles have this feature, so strength and track of the feature are going to be the big thing. Today’s 12z GFS version is definitely more ideal, having a more defined and stronger surface low that tracks under PA which yields a better snow swath. A weaker feature going south of PA would still have some of the same issues with precip surviving east of the Alleghenies. A stronger one like the 12z GFS would establish some Atlantic fetch with the low hitting the coast, maintaining a swath into the Sus Valley and/or points south of there. 

Great to see you back on here!

Tracking season is underway!

[Blizzard of 93]

Important question…

Met Winter starts tomorrow….

Who is starting our Winter thread?

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Important question…

Met Winter starts tomorrow….

Who is starting our Winter thread?

 

By the way it’s not me. I started last year’s Winter thread & of course it was an epic disaster.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Important question…

Met Winter starts tomorrow….

Who is starting our Winter thread?

 

Maybe we should use reverse psychology & have one of the warm weather loving posters start it?

[Mount Joy Snowman]

It looks like today’s average temp at MDT should come in at 38.5, which should knock another couple tenths off and bring us to a final monthly mean of 44.7, or .2 BN. Slightly higher than the 44.5 I predicted ten days ago. I promise to be better 

[WmsptWx]

Nah, im good. Thanks. 

Then you're just as useless as the babies you're crying to us about in your own forum. You can go, too.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[CoralRed]

After looking at the last few pages of comments, some of which lack our usual friendliness, I am going to go ahead and lapse into poetry. Before anyone panics, it will not be my poetry (I don't have any) but that of the Russian author Boris Pasternak, who wrote Dr Zhivago and I am sure knew a lot about snow and drinking, too. What could be better than to read First Snow while talking about it?

 

First Snow

Outside the snowstorm spins, and hides

The world beneath a pall.*

Snowed under are the paper-girl,

The papers and the stall.

 

Quite often our experience

Has led us to believe

That snow falls out of reticence,

In order to deceive.

 

Concealing unrepentantly

And trimming you in white,

How often he has brought you home

Into the town at night!

 

While snowflakes blind and blanket out

The distance more and more,

A tipsy shadow gropes his way

And staggers to the door.

 

And then he enters hastily...

Again, for all I know,

Someone has something sinful to

Conceal in all this snow!

________

* Pall, noun: something that covers or conceals

especially : an overspreading element that produces an effect of gloom

[Voyager]

6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Maybe we should use reverse psychology & have one of the warm weather loving posters start it?

Your wish is my command... 

[PSUWhiteout70]

12 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Can't wait to be lectured on how that is only the 3rd month since the Mesozoic era in which MDT was BN.

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This site needs a block button, desperately. Then this a hole can talk to himself because no one else can stand him, just like what happens to him in the real world. 

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, PSUWhiteout70 said:

This site needs a block button, desperately. Then this a hole can talk to himself because no one else can stand him, just like what happens to him in the real world. 

You can block him, unless that function is only available in off topic. The only thing is, if someone quotes him, then it shows up anyway.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

10 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

It looks like today’s average temp at MDT should come in at 38.5, which should knock another couple tenths off and bring us to a final monthly mean of 44.7, or .2 BN. Slightly higher than the 44.5 I predicted ten days ago. I promise to be better 

44.7 confirmed. Rainfall about a half inch below average at 2.49”. Heating degree days almost spot on at 602, compared to an average of 605. A pretty dang normal month, just a bit on the dry side like most of this year. Some scattered rain on the way for much of this weekend though. 

[anotherman]

Is this thread being run by Elon Musk? That’s what it feels like sometimes.

[ChescoWx]

Large range of temps this morning across the county with lower spots down into the mid-20's while the ridge locations stayed above freezing. Today should be close to normal high temps for the first day of December before a milder than normal weekend followed by a return to below normal temps next week. It looks like rain will overspread the area from SW to NE over the 3pm hour today and be over by 1am Saturday morning. More showers by Sunday AM but we should see a drier PM before more showers at night.

Records for today: High 70.9 (2006) / Low 7 (1967) / Rain 1.80" (1996) / Snow 0.5" (1907)

[Bubbler86]

3 hours ago, PSUWhiteout70 said:

This site needs a block button, desperately. Then this a hole can talk to himself because no one else can stand him, just like what happens to him in the real world. 

It is there but unfortunately you still see a blocked persons posts when someone replies to them as part of the quote. 

[Bubbler86]

Low of 41 here...rain on the distant doorstep. 

[TugHillMatt]

Hey, all! It's been some time since I last posted...ever since the mission of the board admin. to be total jackwagons to our Upstate NY sub forum. (We all have a much better, "safe" space now..lol)

I have always loved coming here to check up on conditions in my home state of PA and hometown of Lancaster. What's happened to you guys? You've always been a friendly, charming bunch. It seems recently there's a much more jaded, cynical, pissed off vibe. Maybe it's the crappy winters...or a few posters I've noticed who display pompous, a-hole behaviors to everybody. Don't let them dictate the tone of your subforum.

P.S. Climate Changer does the same thing on the now-dead Upstate NY subforum. It's quite humorous, as it appears he is talking to himself. Anyway, here's to hoping for a snowy winter for you all and a White Christmas for my visit to Danville during Christmas week!

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hey, all! It's been some time since I last posted...ever since the mission of the board admin. to be total jackwagons to our Upstate NY sub forum. (We all have a much better, "safe" space now..lol)

I have always loved coming here to check up on conditions in my home state of PA and hometown of Lancaster. What's happened to you guys? You've always been a friendly, charming bunch. It seems recently there's a much more jaded, cynical, pissed off vibe. Maybe it's the crappy winters...or a few posters I've noticed who display pompous, a-hole behaviors to everybody. Don't let them dictate the tone of your subforum.

P.S. Climate Changer does the same thing on the now-dead Upstate NY subforum. It's quite humorous, as it appears he is talking to himself. Anyway, here's to hoping for a snowy winter for you all and a White Christmas for my visit to Danville during Christmas week!

Hey Matt.  Hope all is well up north.  We are a pretty decent bunch, and are typically cool about outsiders comin in to chat up weather.  I'd say most of us are totally cool w/ that, but of late there's been a decent amount of trolling by a few, and its just gettin under some of our skins.  You've been here and know how we roll.  I guess a few of us (maybe I'm one of the aholes...dunno) are just calling it out, and trying to keep the chill vibe flowin and not muddied up (like some of the other retional forum threads).  I weed through tons of sports chatter to find weather snippets, and as many here are sports junkies, I roll w/ it as its not my board, but if/when we start chattin up weather and get trolled or are told to "wait till the storm happens" so that the same poster can tell us daily about warm climate stats...I hope you see the point. 

If we want to have off topic banter, we should separate threads, but that's also been shot down, so we have one big basket that all of our chat falls in, and if that's how its gonna roll....sometimes ya just gotta take out the trash.  That's all. 

Lookin forward to seeing more of your posts in the winter months.

 

[WmsptWx]

Is this thread being run by Elon Musk? That’s what it feels like sometimes.

This place has been a dump the past few days at times, and probably my fault, but no. There's not enough of a presence of the n-word for this to have the Musk stamp.

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[Bubbler86]

32 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hey, all! It's been some time since I last posted...ever since the mission of the board admin. to be total jackwagons to our Upstate NY sub forum. (We all have a much better, "safe" space now..lol)

I have always loved coming here to check up on conditions in my home state of PA and hometown of Lancaster. What's happened to you guys? You've always been a friendly, charming bunch. It seems recently there's a much more jaded, cynical, pissed off vibe. Maybe it's the crappy winters...or a few posters I've noticed who display pompous, a-hole behaviors to everybody. Don't let them dictate the tone of your subforum.

P.S. Climate Changer does the same thing on the now-dead Upstate NY subforum. It's quite humorous, as it appears he is talking to himself. Anyway, here's to hoping for a snowy winter for you all and a White Christmas for my visit to Danville during Christmas week!

It has been an unpleasant week but always enjoy your contributions. 

[paweather]

Breakfast nooner 35 and cloudy