Central PA Autumn 2023

[Jns2183]

Honestly thought similarly.  Even has that strip of convergence leading to heaviest precip near the western edge.

The sharp back edge with subsidence from heavy banding. Even has signs of the double max banding with subsidence in middle

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Jns2183]

18z Icon remains on board. 

Beaver stadium would be on the razors edge here. The late night drive home seems destined for horrendous conditions going east and most likely traffic hell

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Jns2183]

Stolen
18z GFS

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Mount Joy Snowman]

51 when I left the house. May have dropped another degree or two after I left. Hit 48 in the car through the rurals.  Beautiful crisp morning. River looks pristine from the train. 

[Bubbler86]

46 this AM.  CMC still a PA flooder  (but the Rgem does not drive the low inland like its papa) , GFS and Icon almost nothing outside the LSV and east....heavy rains confined east of the LSV on Icon and LSV on the GFS,  and Euro still a no go for PA (Op).  UKIE precip maps are between the Euro and the GFS and really a nothing event for the LSV.  At this point the CMC is not looking like it has the right solution.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

43 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

46 this AM.  CMC still a PA flooder  (but the Rgem does not drive the low inland like its papa) , GFS and Icon almost nothing outside the LSV and east....heavy rains confined east of the LSV on Icon and LSV on the GFS,  and Euro still a no go for PA (Op).  UKIE precip maps are between the Euro and the GFS and really a nothing event for the LSV.  At this point the CMC is not looking like it has the right solution.

How long until the Canadian sobers up?  Also, what are the JMA and NAVGEM saying?  I demand answers!  But seriously, would be quite the coup for our friends up north.  

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

How long until the Canadian sobers up?  Also, what are the JMA and NAVGEM saying?  I demand answers!  But seriously, would be quite the coup for our friends up north.  

We are in winter warm up mode here...any and all models welcome if they show what we want :-). 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

How long until the Canadian sobers up?  Also, what are the JMA and NAVGEM saying?  I demand answers!  But seriously, would be quite the coup for our friends up north.  

NAVGEM a pretty good hit, though you were probably not serious.

Ukie is meh and attached. 6z Gfs back to 2"+.

 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

How long until the Canadian sobers up?  Also, what are the JMA and NAVGEM saying?  I demand answers!  But seriously, would be quite the coup for our friends up north.  

JMA denies Japan bombed Pearl Harbor.

[Jns2183]

46 this AM.  CMC still a PA flooder  (but the Rgem does not drive the low inland like its papa) , GFS and Icon almost nothing outside the LSV and east....heavy rains confined east of the LSV on Icon and LSV on the GFS,  and Euro still a no go for PA (Op).  UKIE precip maps are between the Euro and the GFS and really a nothing event for the LSV.  At this point the CMC is not looking like it has the right solution.

6z GFS is 2"+ in LSV, including you

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

NAVGEM a pretty good hit, though you were probably not serious.

Ukie is meh and attached. 6z Gfs back to 2"+.

 

Correct, not serious haha.  But thanks for posting anyway!  I saw the Ukie.  I'm probably one of the few people who still checks that model pretty consistently.  I have no idea why ha. 

[pasnownut]

16 hours ago, canderson said:

I haven't'. I value my teeth too much to visit WV typically. 

WVA is the most beautiful state I've visited in the east.  Been there 2x and cant wait to get back.  Put aside the stereotypes that run amuck.  People we met were genuinely nice and welcoming.  You can find folks just as bad in your hood.  Take that Allison Hill walk Sauss suggests.  

[Jns2183]

Here's the AFD from 7am. They seem to be ramping up

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

51 when I left the house. May have dropped another degree or two after I left. Hit 48 in the car through the rurals.  Beautiful crisp morning. River looks pristine from the train. 

cant ask for better days in early fall.  

Hope your hump day is a good one.

[Bubbler86]

Post 'em if you got 'em.

 

[pasnownut]

26 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

How long until the Canadian sobers up?  Also, what are the JMA and NAVGEM saying?  I demand answers!  But seriously, would be quite the coup for our friends up north.  

while its looking less wet here, I'm watching for tomorrow night or friday runs to have the "coming back" looks start to show.  Eastern 1/2 of the state should be ready for more grass (re)growing this weekend.

[ChescoWx]

Our recent stretch of below normal temps looks to continue through much of the week. Nice weather through Friday but then needed rain is looking likely for the weekend. In addition to the rain...Saturday could be a mighty raw for September day with some of the highest spots in the county possibly not escaping the upper 50's. On a historical weather note today back in 1895 began the greatest late season heatwave across Chester County with the following locations all recording their first of 4 consecutive days over 90 degrees. Temperatures topped out at 100 at Coatesville; and 97 at West Chester, Phoenixville and Devault.

On the opposite side of the weather spectrum, today was also the earliest recorded freezing temperature, with a 32 degree low observed at both Coatesville and in West Chester back in 1956

Records for today: High 93 (1895) / Low 32 (1956) / Rain 2.48" (1938)

[ChescoWx]

I figured I'd take a look at the departure from normal for astronomical summer....looks mighty normal for all of PA

.

[ChescoWx]

Longer look back from May through September to date for temperature departures from normal...not too toasty!!

[pasnownut]

21 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Longer look back from May through September to date for temperature departures from normal...not too toasty!!

cept for that one cherrypicked one...

In all seriousness, there is likely some undertone of validity to what Bradfords warming might suggest, but above maps keep us within normalish goalposts.  

If one looks hard enough, one can always find something to fit their "feelings". 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

45 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

while its looking less wet here, I'm watching for tomorrow night or friday runs to have the "coming back" looks start to show.  Eastern 1/2 of the state should be ready for more grass (re)growing this weekend.

How 'bout it.  Regardless of eventual outcome, I plan on mowing on Friday and laying down some fresh grass seed.  Plenty of patch work to do with two dogs, one of whom loves to dig ugh. 

[Itstrainingtime]

In Lancaster, June was 1.45 BN followed by July and August which both were at a +1 - +3 AN. Pretty much right in line with Checo's maps above. 

For 2023, the alarming departures were over the winter, with January running at nearly a +10 followed  by a +9 for February. 

All of that data, whether it was very close to normal (this summer) or WAY above normal (this past winter) still came back to one general theme - the devil in the details has been our nighttime lows. It just does not cool off at night like it once did. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

In Lancaster, June was 1.45 BN followed by July and August which both were at a +1 - +3 AN. Pretty much right in line with Checo's maps above. 

For 2023, the alarming departures were over the winter, with January running at nearly a +10 followed  by a +9 for February. 

All of that data, whether it was very close to normal (this summer) or WAY above normal (this past winter) still came back to one general theme - the devil in the details has been our nighttime lows. It just does not cool off at night like it once did. 

Yea, as I have said probably 4-5 times now, I cannot get on board of anything that says we had a hot summer compared to recent times.   Since the norms are 30 years adjusted it does skew that olden time summers were cooler, no debate IMO, but this summer was a delight temp wise as it pertains to the last 20-30 years. 

 

 

[pasnownut]

26 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

How 'bout it.  Regardless of eventual outcome, I plan on mowing on Friday and laying down some fresh grass seed.  Plenty of patch work to do with two dogs, one of whom loves to dig ugh. 

mowed #dunnodontcare last night  (I really enjoy mowing - just being a smartass in the lawn and garden thread).

i have some serious patchwork that needs done.  Some asian grass has taken hold and i need to kill it, plus we are giving up on the garden and need to plant something other than the weeds that took residence. 

Now that kid is married and moved into his house, I can start taking care of mine again.  lol

Dogs and nice lawns are not often said in the same sentence.  Been there...did that.  Wish you luck pal.

 

[Jns2183]

Yea, as I have said probably 4-5 times now, I cannot get on board of anything that says we had a hot summer compared to recent times.   Since the norms are 30 years adjusted it does skew that olden time summers were cooler, no debate IMO, but this summer was a delight temp wise as it pertains to the last 20-30 years. 
 
 

Also, as I think we have discussed previously; our min temps have been warming over the past 50 years much much faster than our max temperatures. People's perception of hot summers are psychologically tied up to max temperatures. It's been a long time since we topped 100.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[pasnownut]

28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

In Lancaster, June was 1.45 BN followed by July and August which both were at a +1 - +3 AN. Pretty much right in line with Checo's maps above. 

For 2023, the alarming departures were over the winter, with January running at nearly a +10 followed  by a +9 for February. 

All of that data, whether it was very close to normal (this summer) or WAY above normal (this past winter) still came back to one general theme - the devil in the details has been our nighttime lows. It just does not cool off at night like it once did. 

wish this wasnt true, but its hard to dismiss.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

Also, as I think we have discussed previously; our min temps have been warming over the past 50 years much much faster than our max temperatures. People's perception of hot summers are psychologically tied up to max temperatures. It's been a long time since we topped 100.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

I think you are right plus the large majority of the average population feels the effects during the day more than the night if they close their windows and have their AC on.  

[Jns2183]

I think you are right plus the large majority of the average population feels the effects during the day more than the night if they close their windows and have their AC on.  

In winter people decide if it's a cold winter based on how it feels first thing in the morning when they have to leave for work in the dark. In summer it's late afternoon when they leave to go home

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think you are right plus the large majority of the average population feels the effects during the day more than the night if they close their windows and have their AC on.  

That's what I was saying earlier in the summer - my AC is running regardless, so I'm only noticing any real difference during the daytime. And this summer's daytime highs weren't bad at all. 

Now, when the normal low in January is 24 and it only gets down to 32...I notice. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's what I was saying earlier in the summer - my AC is running regardless, so I'm only noticing any real difference during the daytime. And this summer's daytimes highs weren't bad at all. 

Now, when the normal low in January is 24 and it only gets down to 32...I notice. 

 

 

As you mentioned, Jan and Feb were indeed super torches. Really went a long way to having minimal heating bills but I would like snow.