Jns2183 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 MU on the weekend: By Friday night and Saturday, my attention will turn toward the southeastern U.S. coastline for possible tropical development. An old, washed-out, and quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the Florida Peninsula could serve as the breeding ground for this potential tropical cyclone. Disturbances that move east-or-northeastward along these stalled fronts often tap into the deep, tropical moisture available in the Bahamas and/or Gulf of Mexico and become more organized. Sometimes, they eventually obtain tropical characteristics and are then named by the National Hurricane Center. In this case, the disturbance of interest is currently quite disorganized and located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By Thursday, it will exit off the east coast of the Florida Peninsula and then move slowly north-or-northeastward off the southeastern U.S. and Carolina coastlines through Friday night or Saturday. If the disturbance becomes a tropical storm on Friday or over the weekend, it would likely acquire the name "Ophelia." Numerical computer models are notoriously bad at handling the timing, track, and intensity of such disturbances, so it's no surprise that a broad range of outcomes are currently on the table. Some models simulate rapid intensification and a landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border sometime between late Saturday morning and Saturday night, while others suggest a weaker system and track along or just off the Carolina coastline. In the first case, the weakening, remnant low pressure system would likely reach northern MD and southern PA by Sunday or Monday, but rainy and windy conditions could arrive as early as late Saturday morning or early afternoon. The rest of the weekend would also turn out cool, damp, and dreary with showers or periods of rain persisting through Sunday and perhaps even into Monday. In the worst-case scenario, winds could gust as high as 40 mph later Saturday through Saturday night with up to 3-5" of rain falling through early next week. However, the second case mentioned above would result in an entirely different outcome in this weekend's weather. Instead of a washout, Saturday could just turn out cloudy and a bit cooler with intermittent showers or a brief period of steadier, light rain before drier, brighter and warmer conditions return on Sunday. At this point, either solution.. or anything in between.. are equally as likely. The strength and speed of a cold frontal boundary diving southward out of eastern Canada will be a key factor in determining the track of the potential tropical system. A weaker, slower front would give the system more leeway to track farther north and west, while a stronger, faster front would suppress the system and kick it out-to-sea more quickly. Check back in late this week for an update! -- ElliottAs much as I would love to see a whiteout game in a 40mph wind driven monsoon, I would be terrified of it basically playing to all of Iowa's strengths. I was at the 6-4 game. I still have PTSD. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Yeah, this is a notable combination for Hagerstown: 3rd warmest and driest YTD. Surprisingly, very little drought with most of Washington County labelled only as abnormally dry (see below). Regarding temperatures on a year-to-date basis, 8 out of the top 10 warmest have occurred since within the past 14 years, and expanding out a bit (not shown) 9 of the top 12 and 10 of the top 14. 3rd warmest year to date Driest year to date Yea, the drought maps are less spectacular than they probably should be. I believe the ground water tables are holding better than expected which is lessening the large-scale effects and skewing the ratings to something less than would normally happen with this little rain and above ground stream levels with this many reds and oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Yea, the drought maps are less spectacular than they probably should be. I believe the ground water tables are holding better than expected which is lessening the large-scale effects and skewing the ratings to something less than would normally happen with this little rain and above ground stream levels with this many reds and oranges. I'm guessing ground water is holding better due to close proximity of normal and above normal rainfall?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I'm guessing ground water is holding better due to close proximity of normal and above normal rainfall? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yep, a small area of WVA, VA, MD and PA while many others are closer to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Yep, a small area of WVA, VA, MD and PA while many others are closer to normal. I'm not used to seeing such small regional intense droughts. Especially when the larger region is so wet. Wish there was a good research paper or two on these. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I'm not used to seeing such small regional intense droughts. Especially when the larger region is so wet. Wish there was a good research paper or two on these. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk The least precip since 1899 through Sept 19th at an NWS managed airport rig is about as intense as they get around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 Latest WPC map backs significant rains a bit farther west: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 The least precip since 1899 through Sept 19th at an NWS managed airport rig is about as intense as they get around here. For some reason I feel this makes the CMC more likely to happenSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Latest WPC map backs significant rains a bit farther west: They went from matching the EC to not looking at all like it. Damn people who do not hug models! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Latest WPC map backs significant rains a bit farther west:Speaking of the devilSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Latest WPC map backs significant rains a bit farther west:You realize this is playing right into Iowa football strengths Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 I've been gardening, landscaping, and kayaking central PA. For 30 years. The creeks have been much lower and ground as been a hell of alot dryer in most areas in past years. Water did not cease to flow over any Yellow Breaches, Conawago ,or Conestoga dams yet this year. That's how you know when there is severe area wide drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Have you ever tried the C&O Canal from around Harper's Ferry, WV north or south. Can't get any flatter and pretty picturesque. I haven't'. I value my teeth too much to visit WV typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, canderson said: I haven't'. I value my teeth too much to visit WV typically. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 In really dry summers the graphs will flatline for the summer sometimes for almost the whole year. I use these graphs to know when and where to go fishing in the Susquehanna Valley. I do relize some where much dryer than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 In really dry summers the graphs will flatline for the summer sometimes for almost the whole year. I use these graphs to know when and where to go fishing in the Susquehanna Valley. I do relize some where much dryer than others.The size of the area and repeated misses there dispite forcast is what I found so unique. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: The size of the area and repeated misses there dispite forcast is what I found so unique. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk This streamflow map shows the area very clearly (red and orange) as well as the abundance in NE PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 24 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: You realize this is playing right into Iowa football strengths Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I didn't say I was asking for this to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I didn't say I was asking for this to happen. You would never want to ruin my vaca! We are nowhere near the boardwalk but I could foresee myself going down there, umbrella in hand, to see how many rainy day Skee-Ball games it will take to get a wooden train whistle. Choo-Choo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: (channels wintertime speak) I read in the MA thread that the Euro Ensembles are way west of the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 19, 2023 Author Share Posted September 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: You would never want to ruin my vaca! We are nowhere near the boardwalk but I could foresee myself going down there, umbrella in hand, to see how many rainy day Skee-Ball games it will take to get a wooden train whistle. I hope the weather is glorious in OCMD. Skee-Ball is fun though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: The size of the area and repeated misses there dispite forcast is what I found so unique. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yes, I planned and packed for high water many times this summer only to get shafted by the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Eps qpf thru day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Canadian ensembles. About 2x plus the Euro thru day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 Gefs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Jns2183 said: As much as I would love to see a whiteout game in a 40mph wind driven monsoon, I would be terrified of it basically playing to all of Iowa's strengths. I was at the 6-4 game. I still have PTSD. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Tell me about it ugh. I was there as well. And yes, Iowa would love nothing more than a bad weather game. Nobody loves making a game ugly more than Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 18z Icon remains on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 18z Icon remains on board. That looks so much like winter storms of yesteryear that the nostalgia is making me all warm inside. Perfect for reality to come and tear out my warm still beating heart. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 19, 2023 Share Posted September 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: That looks so much like winter storms of yesteryear that the nostalgia is making me all warm inside. Perfect for reality to come and tear out my warm still beating heart. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Honestly thought similarly. Even has that strip of convergence leading to heaviest precip near the western edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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