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Central PA Autumn 2023


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I'm confused. 
I busted TheDreamTraveler and TheClimateChanger of being the same person. I thought my sluthery was without precedent, but Bubbler informed me I dum an slow.

TimB then ripped the mask off and said it's been him. I called him sloppy.

TheDreamChangerClimateTraveler then said some bullshit.

How's that?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I busted TheDreamTraveler and TheClimateChanger of being the same person. I thought my sluthery was without precedent, but Bubbler informed me I dum an slow.

TimB then ripped the mask off and said it's been him. I called him sloppy.

TheDreamChangerClimateTraveler then said some bullshit.

How's that?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Not at all saying your sleuthing was wrong, really agreeing with you in that someone else saw it.  

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36 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I guess only one person can possibly wonder how winter will be affected by a 2C warmer globe this year? Even if only temporary, that’s pretty significant since all the discourse has always made it seem that’s some far off threshold.

Dream Traveler :D

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7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I busted TheDreamTraveler and TheClimateChanger of being the same person. I thought my sluthery was without precedent, but Bubbler informed me I dum an slow.

TimB then ripped the mask off and said it's been him. I called him sloppy.

TheDreamChangerClimateTraveler then said some bullshit.

How's that?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

(might have been...me?)

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You ever been to Louisiana? Its infrastructure is very similar to that of a bombed-out city. 
Here's my travel itinerary. Louisiana ain't making the cut.

Partner went to NOLA a few years ago. Enjoyed it. I'm sure I'll end up there eventually. 73358b38f5b8b44a2f543f138f9c8237.jpg

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Forgot to post this earlier. Sorry. WYOU in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre is having a weather special starting in a few minutes at 7:30.  

Winter Weather Outlook will be a first as far as I know for a half hour show covering their snow predictions. 

Glad to see snow getting the attention it deserves. Maybe other stations will start doing this too.

Update: I didn't see the middle  as I was fussing with groceries and eating my donut. But I did see the end where they called for below average snow and possiblity of several Nor'easters coming up the coast. No snow map! 

Williamsport's average is just below 36" so we could be below average but still get a lot more than last year.  

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12 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

The frustrating side of following ensembles for specific weather in my opinion.  Good for verification of Op's and large-scale atmospheric forecasts but for slp's and day to day reality, they can jump around just like the op's since they are essentially a group of op's (sometimes lower resolution) running the same data but with slight deviations to try and capture all the different possibilities.   For specific details, I think one has to look at each member of an ensemble and see if the LR forecasts are similar as just looking at the resulting average map does not give us any idea of how much variability there was among the members. 

Although I  generally agree, the problem we've been having is that all the ensembles are showing 1" of snow or less over their entire 360 or 384 hr runs. As long as that's the case, I  just disregard operational snowfall as flukes with no "real chance" of happening. I guess that was my point with a weenie defeatist attitude.  Lol

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Although I  generally agree, the problem we've been having is that all the ensembles are showing 1" of snow or less over their entire 360 or 384 hr runs. As long as that's the case, I  just disregard operational snowfall as flukes with no "real chance" of happening. I guess that was my point with a weenie defeatist attitude.  Lol

Totally understand.  The safe bet is to error on the side of brown yards.   If anything, I was more suggesting any snow shown on ensembles is questionable if it was there because two members showed it and the rest did not, but the average was pulled up by the 2.   So, I concur!  LOL

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27 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Is this before Cashtown has scored? Or did he get some (heh) a few weeks ago when folks like MAG and I scored?

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I had a trace at house.  Up to 1” on ridge tops to my west 

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37 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Is this before Cashtown has scored? Or did he get some (heh) a few weeks ago when folks like MAG and I scored?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

10 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said:

I had a trace at house.  Up to 1” on ridge tops to my west 

My house between Pen Mar and High Rock is about 1 1/4" for the year.    Trace here in Rou.   No accums on the roads though. 

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I see some of you neighbors to the west have reported some light snow and sleet this morning. If we see some light precip making it his far east we may see some ourselves this AM. The steady rain should arrive around the 2pm hour today and last through about 4am Wednesday morning. Most models show a general 1.5" to 2.0" of rain. We are over 5.5" below normal in the rain department this year. After today dry weather should continue through the holiday weekend. Tomorrow looks to be our one day with above normal temps before a return to below normal weather for most of the next week.
Records for today: High 76 (1900) / Low 17 (1951) / Rain 2.29" (1952) / Snow 1.5" (2008)
image.png.4b353715f941871a2e2d1d4a53dafba7.png
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28 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:
I see some of you neighbors to the west have reported some light snow and sleet this morning. If we see some light precip making it his far east we may see some ourselves this AM. The steady rain should arrive around the 2pm hour today and last through about 4am Wednesday morning. Most models show a general 1.5" to 2.0" of rain. We are over 5.5" below normal in the rain department this year. After today dry weather should continue through the holiday weekend. Tomorrow looks to be our one day with above normal temps before a return to below normal weather for most of the next week.
Records for today: High 76 (1900) / Low 17 (1951) / Rain 2.29" (1952) / Snow 1.5" (2008)
image.png.4b353715f941871a2e2d1d4a53dafba7.png

Most meso's have the LSV punching into the 50's this evening so decent chance MDT is AN at least 2 of the next 3 days if models are to be believed.   MDT needs to make it to 54 today to come in normal.   The warmer lows Wed and Thur may make it easier to get AN those days. 

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